Trump’s legal problems

The Hush Money case and 3 others

by Dave

The sentencing of Donald Trump in the hush money case will occur on September 18, 2024. He was originally scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, 2024. This was put off until September 18 after the Supreme Court ruled on Presidential Immunity. The charges against him are falsification of business records, and Judge Merchan could sentence him to prison time for these offenses. But, immediately after sentencing, Trump’s lawyers will appeal and ask for a stay while the appeal is pending. It is expected that the Judge will grant the stay, so nothing will happen until after the election.

See link: https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-prison-felony-hush-money-conviction-experts-split/story?id=111059073

Judge Aileen Cannon granted a pre-trial motion on July 15, 2024 and dismissed the Classified Documents case. She opined that prosecutor Jack Smith had been unlawfully appointed. AG Merrick Garland definitely disagrees, and will appeal the decision.

See link: https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/classified-documents-case-trump-dismissed-aileen-cannon

I will add, that much of Judge Cannon’s order to dismiss, was based on a concurring opinion by Judge Thomas in the Presidential immunity case. But, Judge Thomas was not commenting on the decision to grant partial immunity or any issues raised by either the Justice Department or Trump. What he wrote about was the legality of the special counsel office, and it wasn’t the proper way the Supreme Court is supposed to act. They are supposed to wait for cases to come before them, not render an opinion on an issue, yet to be heard by the court.

The other federal criminal case, is the January 6 election interference case. The Supreme Court’s decision granting Presidential immunity to official acts, did not dismiss the case, but certainly pushed back the timetable. A hearing is scheduled on September 5 concerning the charges and admissibility of evidence based on the Supreme Courts decision.

See link: https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/08/politics/special-counsel-trump-election-case-delay/index.html

The last case, is the Georgia election obstruction case, is based on RICO statutes. News of AG Willis and Attorney Wade’s relationship and subsequent hearings resulted in Attorney Wade’s being forced to resign. It wasn’t exactly what Trump and the other plaintiffs wanted, so the decision has been appealed. A decision is not expected until next year, and then this decision could be appealed to the Georgia Supreme Court. So, it is definitely stalled out way beyond the election.

See link: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-fani-willis-georgia-election-indictment-cd810f67a76dc4c64ec3ee64749bf897

So, Trump’s team with the help of conservatives on the Supreme Court and a biased Judge Cannon (in my opinion), the final judgements will wait until after the election. Should Donald Trump win the election, in short order, he will close down the special counsel’s office, and the pending federal charges will simply disappear.

I don’t want to see this happen. Everyone is treated equally under the law. No exceptions.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Cases to be decided by the Supreme Court (updated June 21)

by Dave

The following was updated to include more information on each of these cases.

The following link describes seven very important cases, yet to be decided by the Supreme Court. There are at present 21 undecided cases, but these are the important ones. I would expect all cases to be decided by July 12, 2024. I think they can push back the summer adjournment date, to complete the remaining cases.

I’ve used the same titles as in the CNN article, which unless the CNN article is read, can give the wrong impression. This is particularly true in case 3, where one convicted rioter wants a charge of obstructing an official proceeding dropped because the defendant claims it was based on a law that was never intended for this purpose. The result will be chaotic to the courts because many rioters have been charged under this statute and their sentences can be reduced or voided by the appeals court. Donald Trump for his actions, is also charged under this statute.

It would also help in securing presidential pardons for rioters, if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the Fischer case. As a practical matter, these are not people you would rather not release early, but they should not be held if the law is now considered invalid.

CNN: Abortion, guns, Trump and more: These are the Supreme Court’s biggest remaining cases

1. Trump claims ‘absolute’ immunity

2. Abortion for health in emergencies

3. January 6 rioters seek to shorten sentences (‘Fischer Case’)

4. Guns for domestic abusers

5. Government regulation of Facebook

6. Cleaning up online ‘disinformation’

7. Government regulations threatened (Chevron deference to agency decisions)

Cases 1 and 3 will have a direct impact on the January 6 charges against Trump. The Fischer case could allow rioters of the Capitol to have some of the charges against them dropped by the appeals court. Also, the charges against Trump might be reduced from four to two.

Case 2 is the result of laws banning abortion unless it is a life or death situation with the pregnant woman. This case will examining bans on abortion which prohibit doctors from treating woman, where there is real health consequences if they do not have abortion.

Case 4 centers on state laws which restrict gun ownership because individuals were guilty of crimes of domestic abuse. The interpretation of Second Amendment rights by the Court of gun ownership, was a classic clash between conservatives vs liberals. The case will be interesting as it is a balance between gun ownership rights and public safety, which is a legitimate government responsibility. After the heated bump stock decision, I am certain all liberals will agree the restrictions are constitutional. To win, they must convince two conservatives to vote with them.

Case 5 concerns actions against Facebook for prohibiting misinformation on their platform. State laws which would limit or ban this practice. Facebook routinely refused to allow many myths about Covid-19 and unfounded personal attacks. I think the liberals will support Facebook’s right to refuse to post misinformation. Other postings, like the elections in either the US and Brazil, were rigged, generally receive disclaimers instead of outright deletions.

Case 6 comes from the Biden’s administration policy of advising social media platforms, that their sites contain false information. They are not regulating the content of the platform, yet there are serious free speech issues at play. I believe the liberals on the court will uphold the government’s position.

Case 7 is about the “Chevron doctrine” which gives deference to the judgement of the agency in regards to decisions requiring their expertise. For practical reasons, in determining air and water standards, the ability of agencies to set their own rules is important. You can expect the liberals on the court to want to keep the Chevron doctrine as it is, and conservatives will want to discard it, or make it much more restrictive.

See link: Supreme Court likely to discard Chevron

Per Wikipedia:

Chevron is one of the most important decisions in U.S. administrative law. It has been cited in thousands of cases since its issuance in 1984.[4] Thirty-nine years later, in May 2023, the Supreme Court granted certiorari to reevaluate Chevron in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, No. 22-451. A decision is expected in the first half of 2024.[5]

Wikipedia: Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc.

The Chevron decision was decided by a 6-0 vote by the Supreme Court. If it is overturned, then the three liberals on the court will likely have a strongly worded dissent, based on Stare Decisis:

Stare Decisis—a Latin term that means “let the decision stand” or “to stand by things decided”—is a foundational concept in the American legal system. To put it simply, stare decisis holds that courts and judges should honor “precedent”—or the decisions, rulings, and opinions from prior cases.

Quite bluntly, Chevron was a practical decision that kept very nuanced challenges to agencies’ decisions out of the realm of the courts. The only change to Chevron is the makeup of the court.

In the next two weeks or so, all these cases will be decided. The court is now six conservatives and three liberals. For liberals to win, they must convince at least two conservatives to join them. There’s a lot of speculation on social media and cable networks on how they might decide. We will know soon enough.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Hunter Biden’s Conviction

by Dave

Just after posting that the justice system is being attacked by Donald Trump and others Marjorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, Sean Hannity of Fox News, James Comer, Mike Johnson and others, Hunter Biden got convicted. Yes, when there is hard evidence against the defendant, a jury generally finds the person guilty. That’s exactly what the judge tells them to do, to go on what they heard and saw in the courtroom.

I wanted to note what a marked contrast between Trump and all the hot rhetoric of being “100% innocent” and a completely “rigged show trial” to Hunter’s acceptance of the verdict after he was found guilty. He wasn’t going to trash the prosecutor or the courts.

“In a written statement, Hunter Biden said he was disappointed by the outcome but grateful for the support of family and friends.”

I would say this shows some real class. Trump desperately wanted to get in the spot light, once again identifying Joe Biden as the real criminal:

“Trump’s campaign called the verdict “nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family.” Trump and his allies have pressed unsubstantiated or debunked allegations that Joe Biden acted while vice president to advance his family members’ foreign business interests.”

Others parroted the same line. See link from Politico.

The “Biden Crime Family,” comes from Rep. James Comer and the absurd impeachment inquiry, which totally fell apart, when their chief accuser was arrested for lying to the FBI.

Bottom line for Democrats and Republicans, DOJ and the FBI does not hand out favors, at least with this administration. No one is above the rule of law.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Hush Money Case – the coming sentencing and appeal

by Dave

There has been a lot of speculation on the sentencing. It will occur on July 11, and no one really knows. What most commentators suggest, is that the sentence will be “stayed” (put on hold) until after all appeals are exhausted, which is well after the November elections. So, unlike TV dramas, the defendant is not hauled away in handcuffs and sent to prison.

Similarly, no one really knows what Trump’s lawyers will put in the appeal, but I believe it will contain a long list of “reversible” errors. An excellent article on this is posted below from Politico. The manner in which misdemeanor crimes can become a felony charge, as provided in Judge Merchan’s instructions, is likely to be issue #1 for the Appellate Court to review.

The Politico article then goes on with issues #2 to #5. Issue #2 is Stormy Daniels testimony of the sordid details of her encounter with Trump in his bedroom. This was a violation of Judge Merchan’s order, and the defense argued for a mistrial, when after her testimony. There are likely other issues related to evidence presented during the trial. Anything defense objection which Merchan denied is ripe for review.

Issue #3 is the limitations place on one of Trump’s potential witnesses, Bradley Smith, an expert in election finance law. The judge ruled that Smith could not testify whether Trump had violated the election finance laws. The defense then decided not to call Smith.

Issues #4 and #5 are ones that will make Trump happy. It’s not that he can actually win on these issues but have them identified in an appeal gives them some appearance of credibility. Issue #4 is evidence that the Judge Merchan was conflicted, and should have recused himself. Issue #5 is that there should have been a change of venue, as this case involved federal election law, so it should never have been tried in the Manhattan courthouse.

Somewhere in the appeal, the name of Attorney Michael Colangelo might be slipped in, just for the conspiracy angle (a connection with DOJ). He was a senior DOJ attorney, very familiar with Trump’s finances, who was hired to by DA Alvin Bragg in help in the case against Trump. There has no connection between DOJ and the Manhattan office on this case.

See Politico link:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/trump-conviction-appeal-juror-00161110

The Appellate Court will not only be looking at violations of the law, but also at the admissibility of evidence used to convict him.

I believe the appeal will not be submitted until mid August, and it will be a prime opportunity for Trump to be blasting away at the Department of Justice, the FBI, and the “Biden apparatus” in an attempt to stop him. I believe the appeal will begin with issues 4 and 5, that the trial should never had taken place (change of venue) and Merchan should never had been the judge. Trump’s team can load up the appeal with many issues that are frivolous, for political reasons.

Trump can ask for an expediated appeal – but I don’t think he will. He’s too concern he will lose the appeal before election.

– The Manhattan case Appeals Political Circus

Trump’s supporters will be talking about the “excellent” appeal, and how the quickly and inevitable, a reversal will be, by the court. They will not waste a minute on the details, and just see how fast they can get on Judge Pirro or Sean Hannity’s show on the Fox network. Trey Gowdy and others will lead the charge. Trump’s legal spokesperson, Alina Habba will also join the conspiracy fray, as Biden’s scheme to derail Trump’s candidacy has now been exposed in the appeal (which no one will actually read).

Expected the words “weaponize” and “lawfare” to be used so often, that any significance will be pounded into the ground by political pundits. For example, “Biden is committed to total lawfare. He has politized and weaponized the DOJ and FBI to go after his opponents. We won’t stand for it!” Follow this by “Send your checks to MAGA, PO address … .

This Manhattan DA office will issue a strong reply to the appeal. Commentators on CNN and MSNBC will quickly note the appeal is re-hashing settled disputes, and has a slim or no chance of winning.

Nothing is likely to be resolved by the Appellate Court until the November elections. Even if the Appellate Court did rule, Trump’s team would immediately request a review by a higher court. They could even petition the Supreme Court to take up the case, as a due process challenge.

I predict with Judge Merchan long experience as a judge dealing with cases in finance law, acted solely on the law and evidence in this case, so the jury’s verdict of guilty on all 34 counts will stand.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Jury Duty

by Dave

I have served on a jury twice, one civil and the other criminal. My experience is pretty similar to others. It is a learning experience, because you only get a vague idea of what the defendant is being accused, until it is explained in detail at the very end of the trial.

The instructions are very clear. You must make your decision only based on the evidence presented in court and the law as explained by the judge. This is your job once you are seated as part of the jury. And it is weird, because in life, you make decisions based on your feelings at the time and often times, after talking to friends or family about different options.

In the jury room, you don’t know the people except as you learn from the permissible chatter of where to have lunch and other topics. A lady in the jury was a seamstress, and I asked her questions about curtains for my house.

Inside the jury room, the floor person is selected. In both cases, we did well, as they were good listeners. In the criminal case, we were divided on an important issue. We kept going back to the testimony given by both prosecution and defense witnesses. And slowly we got to a 8 in favor of not guilty and one who just couldn’t decide. That’s exactly when some of us, repeated why we should find the defendant not guilty.

The one hold out in the jury, was a young school teacher, who said she loved teaching, and just wanted to return to her kids. The last thing in the world she wanted to do was to go against the rest of us. She blurted out, “Well if that’s the way you all feel, I can go along with it.” At which point, which I will never forget, a Jamaican man spoke, and said to her, “You have to vote according to your conscious, because if you don’t, you will regret it the rest of your life.” And he was so right. How could this teacher, so focused on “her kids” go back to the classroom, knowing she caved in to the rest of us?

This Jamaican fellow was saying, in essence, a hung jury is fine. And I immediately spoke, saying we were in no hurry. Others chimed in with the same message. We were bound to make our decision based on what the judge instructed us to do. With that in mind, our conscience would be clear.

In the criminal case, we found the defendant guilty on two counts, and not guilty on one count. To this day, I believe we did the right thing, based on the evidence and the law as explained to us by the judge.

In every courtroom in the country, the same oaths are given, and jurors understand the seriousness of their obligation. They can’t discuss the case with anyone. They can’t listen to the news. There most difficult task one day, might have been, teaching school, or getting their car fixed. Now, they have to be in judgement of a total stranger.

I believe Donald Trump received a fair trial. Judge Juan Merchan is a very experienced and respected judge. He read the instructions a second time to the jury, as they requested. It takes a lot to convince 12 members of a jury that he is guilty. Trump has the right to appeal the verdict and this will take months. He can ask for an expediated appeal, if he is confident the verdict can be overturned. I don’t think he will do that. Many experts feel he has very little to base an appeal. He will instead use this verdict to cast himself as the victim of a partisan judicial system.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Playing the delay game

by Dave

An innocent defendant pushes a prosecutor to have a speedy trial and get rid of the allegations of wrong doing. Trump is guilty of taking classified documents and hiding them in unsecure locations and then when it was requested they be returned, moving them around his residence/club at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. He does not want his day in court.

Donald Trump game plan is simple – delay the classified documents case until after the election, and then have the Justice Department dismiss the case. His accomplice in this delay game is a biased judge by the name of Aileen Cannon, who is not ruling on the pre-trial motions, but is scheduling hearings in June, and will drag out the start of the trial just as long as possible.

I have read through a dozen or so, opinions on Judge Cannon’s order of May 7, 2024. They all conclude that the judge is simply siding with Trump on every issue. Here’s part of the Washington Post opinion:

“Of the indictments Trump faces, the case in Florida was often regarded as the most clear-cut. And then it was assigned to Judge Aileen M. Cannon.”

Washington Post Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/08/judge-trump-classified-documents-trial-date/

What scares both Donald Trump and Judge Cannon is the speed at which the Hush Money case is proceeding. It means that in late May, or early June, the Hush Money case will conclude. Then, Trump has no real basis for delaying the start of Classified Documents case.

The sole excuse not to start the trial at the conclusion of the Hush Money case will be Judge Cannon’s acquiescence to schedule hearings in Trump’s many motions. In this way, she does not have to rule until after the hearing. So, Trump wins in the delay game.

CNN Link: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/politics/judge-postpones-trump-classified-documents-trial/index.html

Legal experts are able to quickly identify frivolous motions to dismiss, which can be ruled on without a hearing. See CNN link below:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/07/politics/video/trump-classified-documents-trial-postponed-judge-scheindlin-sitroom-digvid

So, it will be a long and frustrating road for the Special Prosecutor. The January 6 case is on hold pending the Supreme Court judgement. So, none of the three other cases pending against Trump has a trial date set.

Equal justice for all? Not in Judge Cannon’s court room.

Stay tuned,

Dave

judge-aileen-cannon-may-7-orderDownload

Hush Money Trial to begin, other court case issues to be resolved slowly

by Dave

On April 15, the Hush Money case begins. Finally Trump’s delay schemes got him only an extra 20 days. I’m glad. Could end in mid June. The judge will not put up with other ways to delay this case. My prediction – Trump will be sentenced to jail time, but this will be stayed pending his appeal. The other cases have definitely gotten bogged down.

The Supreme Court knows they control the timing of the federal January 6 trial with the presidential immunity case and they don’t seem anxious to fast track this case. The court traditionally releases the most controversial decision at the end of the term, so it could be decided from June to early July. Almost every legal expert expects Trump to lose on this one.

Trump lawyers are filing dozens of pre-trial motions in the Classified Documents case. The Special Counsel suggested a July start date, while Trump’s team hopes to push this off to next year, obviously in hopes that Trump would win the Presidency. The Special Counsel is especially concerned that Judge Cannon will allow the list of witnesses to be made public before trial. Also they object to needless hearings related to dismissal of the case.

They [Trump’s lawyers] want the judge to hold a hearing to force the government to produce evidence of what they say is a “selective and vindictive” prosecution. Prosecutors say no such evidence exists and that it would be unprecedented to grant a hearing in the matter.

See link: Trump’s trial over classified documents in Florida could start as soon as this summer

Many legal experts, are critical of Judge Cannon’s decisions, saying they are not legally sound and result in complicating and delaying the trial. See link below:

Salon: “Very, very troubling”: Ex-judges worry Judge Cannon’s pro-Trump rulings “clearly suggest bias”

The Special Counsel can appeal a wrong decision, but this can take months.

There are both legal and practical aspects in some court decisions. I can understand the practical aspects a lot easier. I stated from a practical perspective, the voters decide elections, not the courts. So, I was glad the Supreme Court decided in Trump’s favor on the disqualification case.

The second one happened yesterday, with the bond in the civil business fraud case being lowered to 175 million from 464 million dollars, and giving Trump an extra 10 days to secure the bond. The appellate court did not explain their reasoning, but since the entire case is under review by the appellate court, it seemed unnecessary to force liquidation of Trump’s assets at this point. I was glad because Trump could not whine about how they [the DA’s office] were stealing his hotels.

So, New York Appellate Court was nice to Trump on the bond issue. Didn’t help, as he made some comments about how terrible NY was treating him, as follows:

Fact check: Trump tells ‘mind-bogglingly nonsensical’ story about the New York Stock Exchange

Now, once the Appellate Court rules, then it is a new ball game. Trump must pay up or his assets can be liquidated. And if it comes to this, it is going to be slow and messy.

The Georgia case is also going slow, as Judge McAfee tossed out 6 charges, as not being fully explained in legal terms. DA Willis can file briefs to get the charges restored. No trial date has been scheduled.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Biden is the right choice for democracy

by Dave

This election is extremely important. All candidates talk big about democracy and the rule of law. But, Trump proved to the American people he only believes in democracy when he wins an election. The “Stop the Steal” effort by Trump and his supporters, post 2020 election, is a sad chapter in our history. Donald Trump encouraged the mob that ransacked our capitol, because he thought he was more important than the country.

“Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States … President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution.” Mike Pence, Former Vice President of the United States.

“He will always put his own interests and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest.” Bill Barr, former Attorney General under Trump.

Trump urged his supporters to leave the Capitol only after hours of rioting, dozens of security police had been injured and five people had died. It could have been far worse. There was a huge arsenal of weapons, stored in a hotel room in Virginia, by the Oath Keepers. Their leader made the decision not to bring these weapons to the Capitol as it could tip off the police on his plans. We were perilously close to a massacre of elected officials in our Capitol. Number 1 target would have been Mike Pence, because he was in charge of counting the votes, as he was obligated to do as Vice President and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi.

The core group of attackers planned, by any means possible, to overcome the security forces and break the windows and doors of the Capitol building. By their testimony and Trump’s promise that he would join them on the morning before the attack, they felt like they were part of Trump’s army, to restore their leader to power. I’ve seen this before in other countries, where leaders or candidates for office blatantly disregard the rule of law, but never in my country.

Link: Capitol Rioters Were Armed to the Teeth and Ready for War

Trump would not condemn the attackers. He called those who participated in January 6 as patriots. To me, the real patriots were the Capitol police and many were injured as they tried to protect the elected officials.

In fact, Trump has stated he would pardon many of the rioters if re-elected.

Link: Trump vows to ‘free’ Jan. 6 defendants as one of his first acts if elect (Story updated March 12, 2024)

It is consistent with his claim that the US Department of Justice, under Biden, is corrupt. Of course, in the chaos of the riot, the investigation by the FBI of the many individuals responsible took time. Credit should be given to the many individual agents who poured over videos both outside and inside the Capitol.

A lot of credit goes to FBI Director, Chris Wray, a Trump appointee. In so many areas, ranging from cybercrimes to combating the influx of drugs, Director Wray has done an excellent job.

If elected, I think Trump will likely fire FBI Director Wray, because the FBI conducted a court approved search of Mar-a-Lago. He’ll find some pre-text to fire Wray. But the search was very personal.

Link: The GOP’s war on the FBI is paying off for Trump

Take Trump seriously. He is looking for revenge.

“The depths of his dishonesty is just astonishing to me… He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.” John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security and White House Chief of Staff

Biden will keep our country strong, by his leadership. Remember, Christopher Wray was Trump’s choice to lead the FBI for the next 10 years. And Biden kept him on. Democracy is built around a peaceful transfer of power through elections. The people at the ballot box decide, not a mob attacking the Capitol.

Stay tuned,

Dave

More plots and subplots to Trump’s legal woes

by Dave

The Georgia case is all about election interference. It was messy at the start, with so many defendants. Chances of success seemed to improve as four defendants decided to accept plea bargains and testify for the the prosecution.   It just got worse with the accusation that District Attorney Fani Willis had a romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, a private lawyer who has received over $600,000 in preparation for this case.  The Republican controlled Senate could not be more pleased to attack Willis, and on Friday approved a special committee to investigate Willis. See links:

Politico: A Reality Check on the Fani Willis Scandal, Is Trump’s Georgia prosecution about to get derailed?

Fox News: Georgia Senate approves special committee to investigate Fani Willis misconduct allegations

Will this be a fair investigation? Oh please, this is an election year, and there’s nothing more the senators would like to do is get rid of DA Willis. You can expect a very aggressive response as she has done in the past when legislators try to interfere with judicial proceedings. Impeachments are political processes, and normal rules of admissible evidence are gone. The charge of an affair is made by Nathan Wade’s wife in a divorce proceeding.

—-

Next subplot arose when Smartmatic, a vendor of voting systems, filed a lawsuit against One American News (OAN), for defamation. In April 2023, Dominion settled their defamation case with Fox News for $787 million dollars. Dominion has helped Smartmatic with their lawsuit, by handing over thousands of pages of documents. In support of discovery against OAN, Smartmatic claimed in a filing that OAN Pro-Trump network OAN execs may have ‘engaged in criminal activities’ while promoting 2020 election lies. It is too early to tell if there is any real substance to this claim. See link below:

CNN: Pro-Trump network OAN execs may have ‘engaged in criminal activities’ while promoting 2020 election lies

I note that Smartmatic is suing Fox for 2.7 billion dollars, for defamation. I’m not sure how much they’ll try to sue for against OAN. OAN has stated that these allegations are baseless.

___

Legal experts expect Trump’s business fraud case to conclude this week. The judge has already concluded that the overvaluations of Trump’s properties constituted fraud, so the trial was to determine the penalty. It is going to be more than 370 million dollars. It was speculated by Bloomberg, that following this court decision, the IRS will likely be looking at the evidence in the case, for tax fraud issues. We shall see.

—

The presidential immunity case is in the Appellate court and a opinion could be issued any day. Trump’s lawyers see this as a chance to push back the Jan 6 federal case, beyond March, 2024. Most legal experts suggest the case will have to be re-scheduled. Legal experts also suggest that if Trump loses and appeals this case to the Supreme Court, they might not take it up. It would help prosecutors keep a trial date before the election.

—

The Colorado disqualification case and the Fischer case will be heard by the Supreme Court. I have posted before on the Colorado case, as I believe as a practical matter, Donald Trump should be on the ballot in both the primary and general election as it is vital that the president is elected by the people. However, what seems right and practical is not how the Supreme Court decides issues. The Colorado Supreme Court ruled in favor of taking Trump off the ballot, and the Supreme Court will decide if this judgement was contrary to law. Other states will likely follow Maine’s example and keep the status quo, until the Supreme Court rules.

The Fischer case will decide if prosecutors went too far in applying a law that was used to convict over 300 rioters of obstructing an official proceeding. It is the same law that prosecutors used in indicting Trump on 2 of the 4 counts of the Jan 6 criminal federal case to be tried in Washington.

Scotus Blog: Court to weigh in on scope of law used in Jan. 6 prosecutions

A lot will be decided soon. A lot will be appealed.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Nine Top Officials who will never work for Trump again.

by Dave

The top positions in any administration are carefully selected. These key positions include Vice President, National Security Adviser, Attorney General, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Secretary of Homeland Security, White House Chief of Staff and others. In crisis and strategy sessions, these are people “in the room.” Very few of his close associates would work with him again.

John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Adviser 2018- 2019, who worked in the White House, coordinating with the intelligence agency in formulating policy during crises.

Trump has this impression that foreign leaders, especially adversaries, hold him in high regard, that he’s got a good relationship with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jung Un. In fact, the exact opposite is true. I have been in those rooms with him when he’s met with those leaders, I believe they think he is a laughing fool.” (quoted in Atlantic Journal, Jan/Feb 2024)

“In a second Trump term, we’d almost certainly withdraw from NATO.” (The Hill)

Mike Pence, Trump’s Vice President

Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States … President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution. 

General James Mattis, Secretary of Defense

He is more dangerous than anyone could ever imagine.

John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security and White House Chief of Staff

The depths of his dishonesty is just astonishing to me… He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.

H.R. McMasters, National Security Advisor

President Trump and other officials repeatedly compromised our principles in pursuit of partisan advantage and personal gain.

Bill Barr, Attorney General

He will always put his own interests and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest.

Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State

His understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of U.S. history was really very limited.

Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense

He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country.

Richard Spencer, Secretary of the Navy

The President has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.

The above quotes are from The Atlantic Journal Jan/Feb 2024, except for the Bolton comment based on an interview on the Hill. Bill Barr told Trump flat out Trump’s claims that he won the election where bullshit, and made a public announcement in December 2020, before leaving office.

Just as I was getting set to hit the publish button, when Donald Trump said this about his opponent on Truth Social:

“Nikki “Birdbrain” Haley is very bad for the Republican Party and, indeed, our Country. Her False Statements, Derogatory Comments, and Humiliating Public Loss, is demeaning to True American Patriots. Her anger should be aimed at her Third Rate Political Consultants and, more importantly, Crooked Joe Biden and those that are destroying our Country – NOT THE PEOPLE WHO WILL SAVE IT,”

Remember that Nikki Haley was appointed by Trump as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, and left on good terms with Trump. ”Trump heaped praise on Haley, declaring she was ‘special to me’ at the Oval Office meeting where her resignation was announced, emphasizing that she was not leaving on bad terms.” (Wikipedia, summarizing a news article)

And then Trump was in again in true form, in testifying in court on Thursday, where the jury had already concluded that sexually assault did take place (but not rape), in the E. Jean Carroll case. He could not limit himself to restrictions imposed by the judge.

“Unhinged” seems a very apt description. Self centered and dishonest also come to mind. Finally, Trump is trying to disrupt the ongoing discussion of how to get both Ukraine funding and tougher policies on illegal immigration, which also includes more funding. 

So Trump chaos is now in Washington, as he is in Manhattan. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trial of Impeachment and Criminal Trials

by Dave

In the Appellate Court during oral arguments, Trump’s lawyer argued that because he was acquitted in the impeachment trial, as ex-president, he retained immunity for all criminal acts conducted as president. 

Senate Minority leader disagreed with this in February 13, 2021. In fact, what McConnell said, was that Trump, as a private citizen, would be held responsible for criminal acts conducted as president. It was a good argument for Trump that impeachment was only for removing current office holders.  Between January 6 and 20, there were only 14 days, not enough time for impeachment.  

Trump apparently wants it both ways. Can’t get me with impeachment, because there isn’t enough time, and can’t get me later, in court, because I wasn’t removed by impeachment, so I keep my immunity for all acts during the presidency. It is absurd.

Richard Nixon resigned and accepted a pardon, because he would have been convicted with obstructing justice.  Nixon was a lawyer before entering politics and understood the law.

See link: Read McConnell’s remarks on the Senate floor following Trump’s acquittal

Excerpts from a speech by McConnell on February 13, 2021:

“Impeachment, conviction, and removal are a specific intra-governmental safety valve. It is not the criminal justice system, where individual accountability is the paramount goal. Indeed, Justice Story specifically reminded that while former officials were not eligible for impeachment or conviction, they were ‘still liable to be tried and punished in the ordinary tribunals of justice.’

We have a criminal justice system in this country. We have civil litigation. And former Presidents are not immune from being held accountable by either one.

McConnell spared no wording in condemning Trump’s actions (or inactions):

There is no question that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of that day. The people who stormed this building believed they were acting on the wishes and instructions of their President. And their having that belief was a foreseeable consequence of the growing crescendo of false statements, conspiracy theories, and reckless hyperbole which the defeated President kept shouting into the largest megaphone on planet Earth.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Quick Updates: Presidential Immunity hearing and Business Fraud Case

by Dave

In the Appellate Court in Washington, DC, January 9 was an historical moment as Trump lawyer, John Sauer argued that an ex-president had absolute immunity to any criminal acts that occurred during his presidency. The consensus of experts in this area suggested that the hearing did not go well, and the Appellate Court will likely rule against him. Neither Trump nor the Special Prosecutor have advocated the “offramp” option, that is leaving the immunity claim to after the trial. This argument was filed as a amicus (friend of the court) brief.

I think if oral arguments did anything, it was to close off the offramp. At least I hope so. Thank God for this! Trump will appeal all judgments against him, whether it is this case, the documents case or the Georgia conspiracy case, which will be particularly messy. 

Lawfare report by Anna Bower: Trump and Smith, Reunited at the DC Circuit

Superb reporting by Ms. Bower from inside the courtroom, particularly noted for bits of humor sprinkled into a very serious matter. The bottom line is that there is no legal precedent for absolute immunity, and granting Trump’s claim would be a massive increase in presidential power. 

If the Supreme Court opts to take up this case, the six conservative judges will likely not come to Trump’s rescue, as they are loathed to construct new ex-presidential rights. They openly criticize the liberals on the bench as acting like legislators and expanding rights beyond the plain meaning and historical context of the law. 

The argument made by Trump’s lawyers is that he maintains immunity, because the House acquitted him of wrongdoing in the January 6 violence. At that time, Mitch McConnell remarked that the House was not clearing him of wrongdoing, as he could still face criminal charges since he was out of office. Now, ironically, his defense is turned around, and the argument is that the House did clear him, so he can’t face criminal charges.

The Special Counsel, Jack Smith, is probably very focused on the calendar and delay tactics right now. Smith lost in his attempt to skip over the Appellate court, and immediately be heard in the Supreme Court.  Court observers note that it is virtually impossible for the trial to begin on March 4, 2024. 

__

Then yesterday January 11, 2024, the business fraud civil case was all abuzz as it was time for closing arguments. A hasty attempt to allow Donald Trump to speak fell through, as there was no agreement to restrain Trump from a return to the campaign rhetoric. Closing arguments are supposed to be directed at the judge, in a last attempt to go easy on Trump and his boys, Donald, Jr. and Eric. Trump’s three lawyers gave a normal summation of the case, arguing that there was no real harm done by the occasional overvaluation.

The judge finally let Trump have his say, and it is unlikely anything Trump said was within bounds for the case. Trump stated what was out of bounds was the entire case against him. His five minute rant likely will be completely ignored by the judge.

Link: Donald Trump defies judge, gives courtroom speech on tense final day of New York civil fraud trial

The state is seeking 370 million dollars. I think they’ll win and Trump will appeal. The judge will submit his written decision near the end of January.

Then, it will be on to the next, which is E. Jean Carroll defamation lawsuit, Part II, which is centered on defamatory statements Trump made immediately after being found guilty of defamation, scheduled to start January 16. Also, on deck is the Hush Money case, scheduled for March 20. So, note to court reporters, look for extended stay options in Manhattan. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

2024 The year of historical trials and court decisions

by Dave

Some people try to associate court trials with other things they are familiar with and it is usually a disaster. Court cases are not like the movies. They can go on for months. It is also not a ballgame. It doesn’t end in nine innings.. Decisions are appealed.

The public knows who they like and dislike, and believes the accused should either be set free or in jail for the rest of their lives. The Republican politicians went years claiming Hillary Clinton had committed all sorts of crimes. But, finally, one Democrat has been charged with profiting from his high position, Senator Bob Menendez. His wife has also been charged. 

Hunter Biden and Steve Bannon will go on trial unless either can cut a plea agreement. These trials will be headline news, because of their close association with President Biden and Donald Trump. In both cases, there has been zero evidence these actions involved either Biden or Trump. Both will have the best lawyers money can buy, but the evidence against them will make or break their cases.

And then of course there is Trump and his two civil cases and four criminal ones. I have written extensively about this and there are many Trump legal problems trackers out there. The final conclusion of the civil case against Trump and his organization for the overvaluation of properties will end quietly, as the judge will simply file the judgment in late January and Trump will appeal. 

The disqualification issue must be decided by the Supreme Court. This case and the immunity case will be historical landmark cases. I think only 3 of the 4 criminal cases will likely be tried in 2024, with the Georgia conspiracy case, starting either late 2024 or early 2025. The Supreme Court has a number of highly contentious cases, of which I’ve commented on the abortion pill.

An independent judicial system is one. of the cherished rights of all Americans. If someone has been unjustly accused, the appropriate place to seek justice is the courtroom, not on social media or cable news stations.

So in sum, the system is working as it is intended. The appeal process is an additional check that ensures convictions are in accordance with the law and the rights of individuals are protected.  

Republican members of Congress should not be involved in any of these cases. They should not attempt to tilt the balance of justice against Hunter Biden or in favor of Donald Trump. By their meddling in trials, through their power to subpoena, they are hindering our system of justice.

I fear a re-election of Donald Trump and his disrespect for the judiciary will severely damage our judiciary system. His use of pardons for political purposes would be an attack on the sacred right of justice for all, that comes from  a conscientious and independent judiciary system. Might makes right approach whether by Congress or the President brings us one step closer to tyranny.

What will work, is an informed public who understands the judiciary has a very independent role vital to our system of government. 

Wishing the best of all in 2024,

Dave,

Presidential Immunity Case and Upcoming Trials

by Dave

My prediction : Donald Trump will lose the immunity case now in the Appellate Court. I also believe his lawyers know this. It is a delaying tactic, as Trump will appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And the Jan 6 Election Interference case may be pushed back to past the November elections. It is a real possibility.

So, does anything the Appellate Court matter if it will end up in the Supreme Court eventually? Perhaps not as I believe the Appellate Court will likely just repeat what the trial court Judge Chutkan already said in her opinion.

The Supreme Court could hand Trump a major blow, by refusing to hear the case. They could do major damage to Trump by simply not putting the trial on hold while they are considering the case.  This would allow trial to go forward on March 4, and would push back the start of the Hush Money case. 

The conspiracy case looks like it will begin after the elections. If Trump is elected, he can’t stop either the hush money trial or the Jan 6 conspiracy case because these are municipal and state criminal cases. 

He will be doing everything he can to get rid of Attorney General Fani Willis in Georgia, and District Attorney Alvin Bragg in Manhattan in these cases.r

The wheels of justice turn slowly but in the right direction at least for now. It is important that Donald Trump not be re-elected, so the process can be completed. No one gets a free “Get out of jail card.” in this country. Let the courts hear the evidence and decide based on the law and facts of each case.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Supreme Court to take up landmark cases

by Dave

These are cases in which whatever the outcome, millions of Americans will be impacted. And millions of Americans will believe that the judges are total idiots, and/or highly partisan. To begin with, they are neither. The buck stops at the Supreme Court. All judges who have been accepted to the Supreme Court are really brilliant.

Unlike the legislature and executive branch, the judicial branch at every level, issues opinions that are available to the public and can be critically reviewed by constitutional scholars, who really understand the issues. 

Two landmark cases are the Trump disqualification case and the Trump presidential immunity case. Neither one has been accepted by the US Supreme Court, but almost everyone believes they will be soon. Lawyers on both sides will be burning the midnight oil, to explain, in a million words or less, to explain why their side is right.  

Trump Disqualification Case

By a 4 to 3 ruling, Colorado Supreme Court ruled on December 20, 2023 that the Secretary of State may not include Donald Trump from the primary ballot. The ruling would also eliminate him from the general election ballot. The Supreme Court will have the final say in these cases. 

State judges can take several “off-ramps” to dismiss disqualification challenges. I call these the “Don’t let this case land in my courtroom defenses” or “Stop them at the courthouse doors.” The judge does not need to hold an evidentiary hearing if the plaintiffs have not demonstrated real injury. Second, judges have ruled in many states that these cases are premature, or as they say, are not ripe for review, because Donald Trump’s name is not on the general election ballot.

Colorado’s case went forward based on both state and federal laws and the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution. State law giving the Secretary of State the right to disqualify candidates in the primary election, allowed the case to proceed. The case cleared several major hurdles in the District Court, in particular, that the violence on January 6, 2021, adequately fits the definition of an insurrection and that Trump’s actions constituted “engagement.” So, none of the normal off-ramps were taken.

However, Trump was the victor in this initial court case, because the judge concluded that the 14th Amendment did not specifically state that it applied to presidential elections. The Colorado Supreme Court reversed the judgment, arguing that the Fourteenth Amendment held for all elected offices of government, which they decided included the president. 

This case must be decided by the Supreme Court. They understand what is at stake. Suppose a similar judgment occurs in Florida, Texas, or Georgia. It has the potential to allow Biden to win, because Trump is not on the ballot. And remember, if one of the four judges disqualifying Trump had dissented, the ruling would have allowed Trump to run. It was summed up by one commentator, that voters not judges decide elections. Well, we shall see.

I particularly like a recent opinion posted on CNN. It is important to note that this opinion is not the views of CNN, and the author is not a lawyer. 

CNN Link: The Fourteenth Amendment gambit is breathtakingly foolish

Jan 6 Presidential immunity case

As part of the pre-trial motions of the January 6 case, with a scheduled start date of March 4, Donald Trump claimed presidential immunity for all actions while he was president. The trial court ruled against him, so he filed an appeal. The Special Counsel, Jack Smith, asked the Appellate Court to expedite the matter and they agreed.

Since the case will inevitably end up in the Supreme Court, Smith asked the Supreme Court to review the case, prior to the Appellate Court decision. As I was completing this post, the Supreme Court, rejected Smith’s petition without comment. This allows the Appellate Court to decide first, which will inevitably delay the start of the trial.

To leapfrog ahead of the Appeals Court or maintain the normal order. That was the question until last Thursday. Trump’s legal team wrote an excellent reply to Smith’s petition. Nothing is stronger than taking someone else’s words and using them against them. Smith argued that jumping ahead of the normal order was needed because this matter was of great public importance. Trump countered that if this is so important, it justified the Appellate Court’s review first to ensure the Supreme Court had all the facts before a landmark decision. It’s the old “haste makes waste” argument. 

The elephant in the room is the elections. Trump wants to push the January 6 criminal case to after the election. The decision by the Supreme Court and Trump’s very busy court date means it might be delayed past November.  If Trump loses again in the Appellate Court, he has 45 days to file an appeal to the full Appellate Court, and if he loses again, 90 days to appeal to the Supreme Court.

The January 6 Defendants Case

On Dec 13, 2023, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the Fischer case, which if successful, will undermine the legal basis for 2 of the 4 counts against Trump in the January 6 case. The Fischer case is also referred to as the Jan 6 defendants case because it arose from a defendant found guilty of participating in the riot on January 6. 

The case is whether the law that formed the basis of guilty convictions of over 200 defendants for attempting to disrupt an official proceeding on January 6 was really applicable. It was enacted as an anti-corruption corporate statute after the Enron scandal to prevent the destruction of documents.

For a detailed examination of the applicable law 18 USC 1512, see Lawfare post: Trump Jan 6 Indictment: The Statutes.

So, the Supreme Court, through a very narrow interpretation of the applicable law, could effectively dismiss two of the charges against Trump and the conviction of over 200 defendants in the January 6 riots. The Department of Justice has been slowly working their way up to the leadership ranks of the extremist groups, and it would terrible to see the organizers of the January 6 riots go free, based on slight interpretation differences in the words, like “corruptly” or “otherwise.”

Abortion Pill Case

The Supreme Court will decide if states can limit access to the abortion pill, mifepristone. Since overturning Roe vs. Wade, the argument is availability is a state’s issue. However, the drug has been approved for general use by the FDA. This case will have the greatest impact on abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It is estimated that approximately half of all abortions in the US are medicated abortions. Plus, any ruling to limit use of a drug that has been deemed safe by the FDA, would allow states to challenge the use of any other drug on the market, making their judgment superior to the FDA.

NYT: Abortion Pill Rullings

The Supreme Court tends to leave the most controversial decisions to the end of its term, which could end in July 2024. My sense is they will act rapidly on the Colorado Disqualification Case, as it directly impacts Trump’s candidacy. A delay in the presidential immunity case would be a big gift to Trump as he would definitely get the case dismissed if he is elected president. The status quo right now on the abortion case, is the ruling on restrictions has been put on hold, so this is one that can be delayed without a major impact.

Stay tuned,

Dave