Trump

Tariffs = Trade Wars = Inflation

by Dave

This posting is very timely. The Dow Jones futures have dropped 1.2% this morning, after Trump announced plans to levy tariffs on imported goods from Canada, Mexico and China. It is a very good indication that investors are fearful of the impact of tariffs.

Almost immediately, Canada, Mexico and China will be enacting retaliatory tariffs on US exporters making it more difficult for the US to compete abroad. Tariffs are based on protectionism, or simply to keep the US industries profitable against unfair competitive practices by other countries.

Trump’s Big Lie

Trump lie is that we are making China, Mexico and China pay the tariffs. The companies that import foreign goods must pay the tariffs. The companies paying the tariffs will pass this additional cost to the consumer. Thus, the cost of many goods will go up.

In the article below it is stated, ” Trump has said that tariffs “are paid mostly by China,” rather than by Americans.” And then goes on to explain that this is untrue, as tariffs are paid by US consumers. 

What are tariffs? Here’s everything you need to know about the import duties.

Inflation to rise

Increases in inflation will hurt most Americans. The cost of buying a home will rise as the lumber to build homes will increase. The loans for homes will be more expensive. Fewer houses will be built. Cost of gas will increase, as the cost of imported oil increases. So, consumer spending will be more for staples (food and gas) and much less for discretionary spending (vacations and luxury goods).

Typically, the Fed tries to bring inflation down, by increasing interest rates they charge banks. This becomes difficult in a slowing US economy. The right solution is to drop the tariffs, because they are bad for our economy and consumers. For a variety of reasons, including Trump’s ego, this is unlikely to happen.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Ukraine War escalates

by Dave

Russia is pressing forward on Ukraine’s eastern front. They are also fighting to retake the Kurst area, which if successful, will be the point where tanks pour across the border and go straight into Kyiv.

US policy has been changed to allow Ukraine to use land mines in order to defend their country. They also now allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack targets well within Russia. US has allowed US contractors to go into Ukraine to repair military equipment, including the F-16 fighter jet.

One can say that Russia escalated first, by deploying North Korean soldiers on the battlefield, against Ukraine.

Link: Ukraine fires several US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time

It is pretty scary. Biden made it clear that we would never send American troops to Ukraine. He stated when US and Russian soldiers are fighting on the same battlefield, it is the beginning of World War III. I agree.

But is there a serious path to peace? Russia is risking thousands of Russian lives at this moment, in an aggressive escalation of the war. Their missile attacks are hitting targets within Kyiv. What Russia wants, is a simple message to US and European leaders, that they will ultimately win this war. It is not peace they desire but surrender.

As I see Trump packing his Cabinet with less than savvy conservative loyalists, including Tulsi Gabbard, nominated as Director of National Intelligence. (I am preparing a post on her) because they look good on Fox News.

I worry that Trump will sell Ukraine out and reward Russia for their invasion. President Zelensky stated that he would like the war to end through talks. It may have been a mistake, because it allows Trump to sell out Ukraine, cutting a deal between the US and Russia, that Zelensky will never be a participant.

Putin wants total victory and control of Kyiv. He would like Zelensky dead, so he can install a Ukrainian president that reports to Moscow.

It is a choice of helping Ukraine continue as a free, independent democracy, or a country ruled by a Russian puppet, like in Belarus and Chechnya. A lot rests with Trump.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link: What to know about Tulsi Gabbard

I thought this link was factually correct and unbiased. It is interesting to note that her father switched from Republican to Democrat, while in 2022, she switched from Democrat to Republican. I will post more on Gabbard. She stated that the Ukraine invasion was a result of NATO expansion, which is really Putin’s explanation of why Russia had to invade Ukraine. He does not acknowledge the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Who correctly predicted the 2024 Presidential Election?

by Dave

The forecasters were 100% right in all but 7 swing states. And of course, these seven states determined the election. My ranking allows changes to forecasts up to the day of the election, so forecasters had the advantage of exit polls.

Most of the information shown is from the 270 to win website. I also used electoral-vote.com .

Donald Trump won all 7 swing states, and won the election 312 to 226. Forecasters who predicted a Harris win, consistently erred in judging MI(15) and WI(10) as likely Democrat wins. Even the best ranked forecast (Polymarket, a betting site) made this error, causing them to gain 25 points. In my ranking, a perfect score is zero. I also penalize forecasters who include toss-ups in their final forecast. Penalty = toss-up EV’s/2.

I rate only forecasts which are published on websites, and include predictions by state. Some forecasters provide estimates of the popular vote, which I do not rate.

Also, I exclude from this table are forecasts that have toss-ups of 40 EV’s or more. See list of excluded forecasts under the table. Also, I do not show errors in states that Harris won, because there were none from these forecasts.

Only Polymarket site, a betting site, correctly predicted that Trump would win. Three websites showed Trump to be very close to winning. All forecasters who predicted Harris would win, also had her winning in PA.

I made the statement in a prior blog, that stated Trump had to win in PA in order to win the election. This was premised on the assumption that Harris would win in MI and WI. Since she lost in both of these states, Trump could have won the election even if he had lost in PA.

RankForecasterPredicted OutcomeScore Toss-upsErrors in states that Trump won
0ActualTrump won
312 to 226		00
1Polymarket- Best forecastTrump wins
287 to 251		250MI(15), WI(10)
2,3Kalshi, JHK ForecastTrump ahead
262 to 241		3234MI(15)
4270 to win, Consensus Map based on PollsTrump ahead
268 to 251		3919MI(15), WI(10)
5Split TicketHarris wins
270 to 268		440MI(15), PA(19), WI(10)
6Sabato’s Crystal BallHarris wins, 276 to 262500MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
7Electoral-VoteHarris wins
276 to 246		5816MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
8Election DailyHarris wins
292 to246		660GA(16), MI(15), NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)
9cnalysisHarris wins
308 to 230		720GA(16), MI(15), NC(16) NV(6),PA(19), WI (10)

I excluded forecasts from rankings because of total toss-ups exceeded 40 EV’s: 538 forecast, Cook’s Political Report, Inside Elections, Fox News, US News, CNN and Race to the WH. Real Clear Politics had the highest toss-ups, which included the standard seven swing states, plus NH and MN.

The only website predicting Donald Trump would win the election and provide a state by state electoral map was Polymarket. At least to my knowledge. Other websites provided multiple scenarios, showing how either candidate could win. I did not include these scenarios in my ratings.

Kalshi and JHK forecasts opted not to predict PA, NV and WI, thus they were penalized 17 points. Kalshi’s website is also a betting website. JHK uses a computer simulation model to predict outcomes.

At the very bottom, is cnalysis website, which considered all swing states except Arizona, would go to Harris, thus it erred in 6 of the 7 swing states.

If anyone knows of another forecast that I have omitted, please let me know. I am particularly interested in those who predicted Trump would win.

Final tallies are still incomplete in AZ and NV, but the other five swing states shows that they were all very close races. Trump won Michigan and Wisconsin by margins of 1.4 and 0.8%, respectively, the narrowest of all reported margins. North Carolina was won by Trump with a margin of 3.4%, the most of the 5 reported swing states.

Stay tuned,

Dave

We can’t go back (Part 2)

by Dave

We can’t go back to the early 1950’s

The 1950’s was a good time for some, and a bad time from others. Soldiers, latinos, blacks, whites and every ethnic group imaginable, fought the war together. They served this country and on returning home, found there were neighborhoods where they couldn’t live, restaurants where they couldn’t eat, and schools where they could not send their children. Another words, it was a different world without an uniform.

Ethnic and racial hatred were strong in my parents era, and Trump is re-igniting these hatreds, in this last month before the election. He attacked Barrack Obama, claiming he was an illegitimate president. He claimed Obama was born in Kenya, Africa. It was of course, total nonsense, but Trump swore he had proof. Trump lies, and he never admits when proven wrong.

Now, it is the Haitian immigrants who have managed to the escape the earthquake or turmoil in Haiti, and live and work legally in our country under temporary protected status. The CNN special last night, highlighted the community of Springfield, Ohio, where many Haitians live. They are refugees, as their lives were in danger from roaming gangs which controlled much of the country. The refugees had to prove to immigration that their lives were in danger, based on their positions within the government, such as a policeman or politician.

The claim that “immigrants” are taking our homes has been taken way out of context. Strong housing demand in a particular area is good. It means that in a particular area, people are finding jobs and can afford the “American dream” of their own house. So, strong housing demand creates a building boom, exactly what has happened in Springfield, Ohio. See CNN link below.

I will not repeat in this blog, all the terrible things Trump has said about immigrants. He singled out the Haitians living in one small community. Actually, the truth is, the Haitians are contributing to the community, working and paying taxes and crime rates have come down.

My grandparents immigrated from France in the 1930’s with a daughter that needed medical treatment. My grandmother went shopping in department stores, not to buy clothes, but so she copy the clothes and sew at home clothes for her 3 daughters and son. Her son was a war hero during World War II, and her children studied at top universities, including Columbia University and Harvard.

So, as I watched the CNN special, my heart went out to the families of Haitians, as they look for work, pay taxes and raise families, just as my grandparents did.

Link: Springfield Haitians weigh their future as Trump threatens deportations

JD Vance stated that the Haitians were illegal, but this was a lie. Trump has gone further, describing anyone who is in the country without documents as a criminal. This would be anyone who has overstayed their visa, or through no fault of their own, missed filing deadlines for visa extensions. He has promised a program to search for, and deport every illegal immigrant. He can make it much more difficult for other refugees from the bombed out areas of Ukraine, and war victims from Afghanistan to migrate to the US.

Trump’s efforts to denigrate and demonize immigrants, appeals to radical white supremacy groups, who have no respect for the law. They are blinded by the hyper nationalism of the MAGA movement. These groups believe in a purity of race ideas espoused by fascists.

This is not the era of the KKK nor the McCarthy era of the 1950. In the 1950’s, there were grand conspiracy theories that communism was like a disease and the government had to question the patriotism of prominent Americans and certain activities, like civil rights marches were considered “Unamerican.” This is why the FBI kept a file on Martin Luther King. The days of “separate but equal” are gone.

The way forward was in the bipartisan Immigration Act of 2024, which would hire more judges to hear amnesty cases. Trump got Congress to kill this bill because it would hurt his re-election campaign.

So, Harris message is right for our times. “We can’t go back.”

If you agree with this post, please consider sharing it with others.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump’s legal woes: The scheduling is clarified, sort of

by Dave

The art of a deal, is in true form. It is the art of delaying the start of four criminal trials until after the elections in November. If this were a game of bowling, four cases delayed to after the election would count as a strike.

The Jan 6 federal case start date of March 4 has been postponed indefinitely. The immunity case is in the Appellate court and Fischer is in the Supreme Court. The Fischer case is not directly tied to Trump’s court case, but the application of the Sarbanes-Oxley law, is the basis of two of the four counts against Trump. I expect these impediments will be gone before the end of the Supreme Court term in July.  

This clears the schedule for the Hush Money case to begin on March 20, 2024, so that pretty much fills up April. I don’t think Trump’s team can delay this one. So, one of the four pins are still standing.

So, all eyes turn to the Classified Documents case, to be held in Ft. Pierce, FL as the logical successor, with a start date of May 20, 2024. The charges are 31 counts of willful retention of national defense information. 

On February 2, 2024, the DOJ filed a 67-page brief stating that they had fully complied with discovery in the documents case. The first reporting of the DOJ filing is on Feb 2 at 10:30 pm by NBC news. The brief begins:

“The defendants have received substantial, timely, and thorough discovery in this case. By early September 2023, the Government had provided the defendants with over 1.28 million pages of unclassified discovery and all of the CCTV footage obtained in the investigation; since then, the Government has supplemented its production as necessary. This production not only complies with the Government’s constitutional and rule-based discovery obligations; it goes far beyond. The Government recognizes its discovery obligations, has complied with them, and will continue to do so. The defendants have nevertheless filed a lengthy motion to compel in which they seek abstract rulings on the scope of the prosecution team and various directives that the Government provide them with a range of additional material.”

Obvious, Trump’s team wants this case to start after the election. Can Trump’s team finagle delays in this case? Yes, if Judge Cannon makes a ruling in favor of Trump on discovery issues, then DOJ will appeal to the 11th Circuit. But it is abundantly clear from the brief, that Trump’s team has really opened the barn door on what could be relevant in this trial, including “selective prosecution.”  Discussion begins on page 37 of brief. 

“Defendants might suggest to the jury that they should be acquitted based on a theory of selective prosecution, that would plainly be inappropriate.”

Can Trump’s team finagle delays in this case? Yes, if Judge Cannon makes a ruling in favor of Trump on discovery issues, then DOJ appeals to the 11th Circuit. 

See link: Prosecutors hit back at Trump’s accusations of political bias in classified documents case

Judge Aileen Cannon has scheduled a hearing date of March 1, 2024 to review the start date of May 20, 2024. The Republican Party Convention would be July 15 -18, 2024. I am certain she doesn’t look forward in scheduling a trial as Trump is completing the primary campaign. 

Selective prosecution is not a defense in the courtroom, but is one to add to House Republican’s attack on Biden with impeachment, Rep. Jim Jordan’s committee investigating the weaponization of government, and the radical MAGA Republicans. Any trial, in any courtroom from now until election day, will be blamed on President Biden.

If Trump is elected, there will be no Special Counsel, and no prosecution of Trump for the January 6 attack or the Classified Document’s case. He can avoid the Georgia conspiracy trial, because he is the sitting president. So, now as an ex-president, he likely will lose the claim of immunity, but once president, he will not stand trial in Georgia. 

I said the scheduling has been clarified, as it looks like the Hush Money goes first. What should follow is any one of the remaining 3 cases. 

The Special Counsel’s brief asking Judge Cannon to reject the need for additional documents sought by Trump’s legal team is given below. I believe Trump lawyers may file a reply brief. I fear Trump’s lawyers are winning at the delay game.

Stay tuned,

Dave

aa-trumps-document-case-discovery-filingDownload

Nine Top Officials who will never work for Trump again.

by Dave

The top positions in any administration are carefully selected. These key positions include Vice President, National Security Adviser, Attorney General, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of State, Secretary of Homeland Security, White House Chief of Staff and others. In crisis and strategy sessions, these are people “in the room.” Very few of his close associates would work with him again.

John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Adviser 2018- 2019, who worked in the White House, coordinating with the intelligence agency in formulating policy during crises.

Trump has this impression that foreign leaders, especially adversaries, hold him in high regard, that he’s got a good relationship with Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jung Un. In fact, the exact opposite is true. I have been in those rooms with him when he’s met with those leaders, I believe they think he is a laughing fool.” (quoted in Atlantic Journal, Jan/Feb 2024)

“In a second Trump term, we’d almost certainly withdraw from NATO.” (The Hill)

Mike Pence, Trump’s Vice President

Anyone who puts himself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States … President Trump demanded that I choose between him and the Constitution. 

General James Mattis, Secretary of Defense

He is more dangerous than anyone could ever imagine.

John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security and White House Chief of Staff

The depths of his dishonesty is just astonishing to me… He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.

H.R. McMasters, National Security Advisor

President Trump and other officials repeatedly compromised our principles in pursuit of partisan advantage and personal gain.

Bill Barr, Attorney General

He will always put his own interests and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interest.

Rex Tillerson, Secretary of State

His understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of U.S. history was really very limited.

Mark Esper, Secretary of Defense

He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country.

Richard Spencer, Secretary of the Navy

The President has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.

The above quotes are from The Atlantic Journal Jan/Feb 2024, except for the Bolton comment based on an interview on the Hill. Bill Barr told Trump flat out Trump’s claims that he won the election where bullshit, and made a public announcement in December 2020, before leaving office.

Just as I was getting set to hit the publish button, when Donald Trump said this about his opponent on Truth Social:

“Nikki “Birdbrain” Haley is very bad for the Republican Party and, indeed, our Country. Her False Statements, Derogatory Comments, and Humiliating Public Loss, is demeaning to True American Patriots. Her anger should be aimed at her Third Rate Political Consultants and, more importantly, Crooked Joe Biden and those that are destroying our Country – NOT THE PEOPLE WHO WILL SAVE IT,”

Remember that Nikki Haley was appointed by Trump as the US Ambassador to the United Nations, and left on good terms with Trump. ”Trump heaped praise on Haley, declaring she was ‘special to me’ at the Oval Office meeting where her resignation was announced, emphasizing that she was not leaving on bad terms.” (Wikipedia, summarizing a news article)

And then Trump was in again in true form, in testifying in court on Thursday, where the jury had already concluded that sexually assault did take place (but not rape), in the E. Jean Carroll case. He could not limit himself to restrictions imposed by the judge.

“Unhinged” seems a very apt description. Self centered and dishonest also come to mind. Finally, Trump is trying to disrupt the ongoing discussion of how to get both Ukraine funding and tougher policies on illegal immigration, which also includes more funding. 

So Trump chaos is now in Washington, as he is in Manhattan. 

Stay tuned,

Dave

2024 The year of historical trials and court decisions

by Dave

Some people try to associate court trials with other things they are familiar with and it is usually a disaster. Court cases are not like the movies. They can go on for months. It is also not a ballgame. It doesn’t end in nine innings.. Decisions are appealed.

The public knows who they like and dislike, and believes the accused should either be set free or in jail for the rest of their lives. The Republican politicians went years claiming Hillary Clinton had committed all sorts of crimes. But, finally, one Democrat has been charged with profiting from his high position, Senator Bob Menendez. His wife has also been charged. 

Hunter Biden and Steve Bannon will go on trial unless either can cut a plea agreement. These trials will be headline news, because of their close association with President Biden and Donald Trump. In both cases, there has been zero evidence these actions involved either Biden or Trump. Both will have the best lawyers money can buy, but the evidence against them will make or break their cases.

And then of course there is Trump and his two civil cases and four criminal ones. I have written extensively about this and there are many Trump legal problems trackers out there. The final conclusion of the civil case against Trump and his organization for the overvaluation of properties will end quietly, as the judge will simply file the judgment in late January and Trump will appeal. 

The disqualification issue must be decided by the Supreme Court. This case and the immunity case will be historical landmark cases. I think only 3 of the 4 criminal cases will likely be tried in 2024, with the Georgia conspiracy case, starting either late 2024 or early 2025. The Supreme Court has a number of highly contentious cases, of which I’ve commented on the abortion pill.

An independent judicial system is one. of the cherished rights of all Americans. If someone has been unjustly accused, the appropriate place to seek justice is the courtroom, not on social media or cable news stations.

So in sum, the system is working as it is intended. The appeal process is an additional check that ensures convictions are in accordance with the law and the rights of individuals are protected.  

Republican members of Congress should not be involved in any of these cases. They should not attempt to tilt the balance of justice against Hunter Biden or in favor of Donald Trump. By their meddling in trials, through their power to subpoena, they are hindering our system of justice.

I fear a re-election of Donald Trump and his disrespect for the judiciary will severely damage our judiciary system. His use of pardons for political purposes would be an attack on the sacred right of justice for all, that comes from  a conscientious and independent judiciary system. Might makes right approach whether by Congress or the President brings us one step closer to tyranny.

What will work, is an informed public who understands the judiciary has a very independent role vital to our system of government. 

Wishing the best of all in 2024,

Dave,

Presidential Immunity Case and Upcoming Trials

by Dave

My prediction : Donald Trump will lose the immunity case now in the Appellate Court. I also believe his lawyers know this. It is a delaying tactic, as Trump will appeal the case to the Supreme Court. And the Jan 6 Election Interference case may be pushed back to past the November elections. It is a real possibility.

So, does anything the Appellate Court matter if it will end up in the Supreme Court eventually? Perhaps not as I believe the Appellate Court will likely just repeat what the trial court Judge Chutkan already said in her opinion.

The Supreme Court could hand Trump a major blow, by refusing to hear the case. They could do major damage to Trump by simply not putting the trial on hold while they are considering the case.  This would allow trial to go forward on March 4, and would push back the start of the Hush Money case. 

The conspiracy case looks like it will begin after the elections. If Trump is elected, he can’t stop either the hush money trial or the Jan 6 conspiracy case because these are municipal and state criminal cases. 

He will be doing everything he can to get rid of Attorney General Fani Willis in Georgia, and District Attorney Alvin Bragg in Manhattan in these cases.r

The wheels of justice turn slowly but in the right direction at least for now. It is important that Donald Trump not be re-elected, so the process can be completed. No one gets a free “Get out of jail card.” in this country. Let the courts hear the evidence and decide based on the law and facts of each case.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Supreme Court to take up landmark cases

by Dave

These are cases in which whatever the outcome, millions of Americans will be impacted. And millions of Americans will believe that the judges are total idiots, and/or highly partisan. To begin with, they are neither. The buck stops at the Supreme Court. All judges who have been accepted to the Supreme Court are really brilliant.

Unlike the legislature and executive branch, the judicial branch at every level, issues opinions that are available to the public and can be critically reviewed by constitutional scholars, who really understand the issues. 

Two landmark cases are the Trump disqualification case and the Trump presidential immunity case. Neither one has been accepted by the US Supreme Court, but almost everyone believes they will be soon. Lawyers on both sides will be burning the midnight oil, to explain, in a million words or less, to explain why their side is right.  

Trump Disqualification Case

By a 4 to 3 ruling, Colorado Supreme Court ruled on December 20, 2023 that the Secretary of State may not include Donald Trump from the primary ballot. The ruling would also eliminate him from the general election ballot. The Supreme Court will have the final say in these cases. 

State judges can take several “off-ramps” to dismiss disqualification challenges. I call these the “Don’t let this case land in my courtroom defenses” or “Stop them at the courthouse doors.” The judge does not need to hold an evidentiary hearing if the plaintiffs have not demonstrated real injury. Second, judges have ruled in many states that these cases are premature, or as they say, are not ripe for review, because Donald Trump’s name is not on the general election ballot.

Colorado’s case went forward based on both state and federal laws and the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution. State law giving the Secretary of State the right to disqualify candidates in the primary election, allowed the case to proceed. The case cleared several major hurdles in the District Court, in particular, that the violence on January 6, 2021, adequately fits the definition of an insurrection and that Trump’s actions constituted “engagement.” So, none of the normal off-ramps were taken.

However, Trump was the victor in this initial court case, because the judge concluded that the 14th Amendment did not specifically state that it applied to presidential elections. The Colorado Supreme Court reversed the judgment, arguing that the Fourteenth Amendment held for all elected offices of government, which they decided included the president. 

This case must be decided by the Supreme Court. They understand what is at stake. Suppose a similar judgment occurs in Florida, Texas, or Georgia. It has the potential to allow Biden to win, because Trump is not on the ballot. And remember, if one of the four judges disqualifying Trump had dissented, the ruling would have allowed Trump to run. It was summed up by one commentator, that voters not judges decide elections. Well, we shall see.

I particularly like a recent opinion posted on CNN. It is important to note that this opinion is not the views of CNN, and the author is not a lawyer. 

CNN Link: The Fourteenth Amendment gambit is breathtakingly foolish

Jan 6 Presidential immunity case

As part of the pre-trial motions of the January 6 case, with a scheduled start date of March 4, Donald Trump claimed presidential immunity for all actions while he was president. The trial court ruled against him, so he filed an appeal. The Special Counsel, Jack Smith, asked the Appellate Court to expedite the matter and they agreed.

Since the case will inevitably end up in the Supreme Court, Smith asked the Supreme Court to review the case, prior to the Appellate Court decision. As I was completing this post, the Supreme Court, rejected Smith’s petition without comment. This allows the Appellate Court to decide first, which will inevitably delay the start of the trial.

To leapfrog ahead of the Appeals Court or maintain the normal order. That was the question until last Thursday. Trump’s legal team wrote an excellent reply to Smith’s petition. Nothing is stronger than taking someone else’s words and using them against them. Smith argued that jumping ahead of the normal order was needed because this matter was of great public importance. Trump countered that if this is so important, it justified the Appellate Court’s review first to ensure the Supreme Court had all the facts before a landmark decision. It’s the old “haste makes waste” argument. 

The elephant in the room is the elections. Trump wants to push the January 6 criminal case to after the election. The decision by the Supreme Court and Trump’s very busy court date means it might be delayed past November.  If Trump loses again in the Appellate Court, he has 45 days to file an appeal to the full Appellate Court, and if he loses again, 90 days to appeal to the Supreme Court.

The January 6 Defendants Case

On Dec 13, 2023, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the Fischer case, which if successful, will undermine the legal basis for 2 of the 4 counts against Trump in the January 6 case. The Fischer case is also referred to as the Jan 6 defendants case because it arose from a defendant found guilty of participating in the riot on January 6. 

The case is whether the law that formed the basis of guilty convictions of over 200 defendants for attempting to disrupt an official proceeding on January 6 was really applicable. It was enacted as an anti-corruption corporate statute after the Enron scandal to prevent the destruction of documents.

For a detailed examination of the applicable law 18 USC 1512, see Lawfare post: Trump Jan 6 Indictment: The Statutes.

So, the Supreme Court, through a very narrow interpretation of the applicable law, could effectively dismiss two of the charges against Trump and the conviction of over 200 defendants in the January 6 riots. The Department of Justice has been slowly working their way up to the leadership ranks of the extremist groups, and it would terrible to see the organizers of the January 6 riots go free, based on slight interpretation differences in the words, like “corruptly” or “otherwise.”

Abortion Pill Case

The Supreme Court will decide if states can limit access to the abortion pill, mifepristone. Since overturning Roe vs. Wade, the argument is availability is a state’s issue. However, the drug has been approved for general use by the FDA. This case will have the greatest impact on abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It is estimated that approximately half of all abortions in the US are medicated abortions. Plus, any ruling to limit use of a drug that has been deemed safe by the FDA, would allow states to challenge the use of any other drug on the market, making their judgment superior to the FDA.

NYT: Abortion Pill Rullings

The Supreme Court tends to leave the most controversial decisions to the end of its term, which could end in July 2024. My sense is they will act rapidly on the Colorado Disqualification Case, as it directly impacts Trump’s candidacy. A delay in the presidential immunity case would be a big gift to Trump as he would definitely get the case dismissed if he is elected president. The status quo right now on the abortion case, is the ruling on restrictions has been put on hold, so this is one that can be delayed without a major impact.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Immigration Removals

by Dave

I know this is a hot issue.  This blog is narrowly focused on historical and recent removal statistics.  Here’s my conclusion – Trump in 2017 will likely deport the same or slightly fewer immigrants than Obama did in his last year.   I know this seems contrary to the general impression that Trump is far more aggressive against illegal immigrants  than Obama.  I will explain why.

President Obama record of deportations is shown below based on the ICE website.  There is an upward trend in deportations, peaking at 409,000 in 2012, then declining to 235,000 by 2015.  I’ve rounded the numbers for convenience.    The deportations in fiscal year (FY) 2016 are basically the same as 2015, at 240,000 removals,  or an average  20,000 deportations per month.

immigration trends

The blue bars are the non-criminal removals.   The priority shifted during Obama’s administration to target removals of illegal immigrants with a criminal convictions, as the blue bars become smaller percentages of the entire bar over time.

The decline in removals from 2012 to 2016 is likely attributable to a reduction of immigrants coming through from Mexico.   Security barriers including extension of the security fence and electronic surveillance likely discouraged immigrants or at least made the crossings much more expensive.   There is a network of “coyotes” operating in many countries, such as Brazil, Guatemala and Nicaragua which organize illegal entries into the US, and my extremely limited polling indicates the cost is rising, costing as much as $10,000.   News of increased border enforcement  can  discourage illegal entry.    Therefore, it should  not be interpreted that a decline in removals means that enforcement is lacking.

The Obama administration, through Executive Orders,  aggressively targeted illegal immigrants with criminal records, as shown by the graph below:

ice removals

 

The blue line is for “interior removals” (away from the border or near border towns) and is represents the Obama’s efforts to target immigrants with criminal conviction records.   I don’t have a breakdown of these offenses,  but they likely include fairly minor offenses.

ICE attributes the increase in removals in 2016 due to: (1) increase state and local cooperation through the priority enforcement program (PEP) and (2) increased border security.    They state that 99.3% of the illegal aliens by ICE in 2016 met the enforcement priorities.     The statistics for 2016 are provided below:

2016 Statistics
Number %
At border removals 174923 72.8
Interior removals 65332 27.2
Total 240255
At border convicted of a crime 78351 44.8
At border, not convicted of a crime 96572 55.2
total 174923
Int. removals convicted of crime 60318 92.3
Int. removals not convicted of a crime 5014 7.7
Total 65332
All removals convicted of crime 138669 57.7
All removals not convisted of crime 101586 42.3
Total 240255
At border, non-criminals 96572 95.1
Int. removals, non-criminals 5014 4.9
Total 101586
Suspect of confirmed gang members 2057 0.9
Not suspected or confirmed gang members 238198 99.1
Total 240255

Probably, if Trump’s policies are working as he claims,  the interior removals of immigrants convicted of crimes would rise above 60,318 in 2017.    The best estimate I have at present is 202,000 removals for 2017, which will be about 14% below 2016.   This would not be any fault of enforcement, but rather a decline in border crossings.  Separating fact from fiction will be challenging.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Trump’s Problems

by Dave

It isn’t the media.  Every president has to deal with unfavorable commentary.  Obama had Fox News and a massive conservative radio and print media which hated him.

It isn’t leakers.    If the story inside the White House is very different from the public statements, this news gets out. People talk.

It isn’t the Democrats, now officially labeled the “obstructionists.”   They have the right to give an alternative viewpoint.   The give and take between Republicans and Democrats was necessary to pass many important laws.  This helps out government from being too liberal or conservative.

Trump’s scandals at the core are basically poor decisions.  Too much done spontaneously, because he believes he doesn’t need others.  And his ego is frightening.  It started with embarrassing comments made at the CIA Headquarters  on how big the crowd was at the inauguration,  then the disastrous travel ban leading to the firing of the Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, then to the firing of Comey,  sharing to top secrets with the Russians and the General Flynn scandal.

Trump campaigned non-stop, smearing Hillary Clinton as a crook, for her mishandling of emails and the attack of the embassy in Benghazi.   Plus, everything one could find in the tabloid press.

And we are only about a third of the way of the first of four years. Kind of scary.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Thank you horrible, horrible people

by Dave

All governments and businesses are inherently closed and dishonest organizations. This is not being negative, because  I’m not saying they are closed and dishonest all the time, in every aspect.  Just occasionally when something goes very wrong.   The public wants to know why VW manipulated their emission tests and how stupid the EPA could have been to accept these tests. Or how could  Wells Fargo opened up millions of fake accounts.   We want to know  the details of how VA  military  hospitals were able to cheated the system in reporting the time veterans had to wait for their urgent medical needs.  Or the IRS scandal where non=profit organizations  were systematically targeted if their  applications contained certain keywords, almost always related to conservative causes.  We want to know what was hit when the bombs dropped in Yemen missed their target under Trump.  Or when a Children’s hospital was bombed under Obama.    And we want to know how many times, Obama took vacations to go golfing.  Same with Trump.   And the same with the next president.

Another words, we want dirt.  It is our right.   Freedom of the press is how we keep our government and businesses honest.

Trump has been blasting  unfavorable media commentary to a new level.    Much of his problems stem from the way he portrays events.   The dishonesty of reasons behind Comey’s firing is a case in point, which I and others have covered enough. Commentary which blends the news with insight  is  either incredible, amazing, terrific or despicable, horrible, dishonest  or totally fake.   When the mother of all bombs was dropped on Afghanistan, CNN brought in a group of  military experts and  all were in full support of Trump’s action.  No problem with CNN.  But after Trump  said more had been done to defeat ISIS in Afghanistan in 8 weeks of his administration  than 8 years under Obama, one former military expert described that as a highly derogatory statement  to those serving in  armed forces.

He can’t be satisfied with his own accomplishments; he has to show he is better than Obama and Democrats.    His wild exaggerations are quickly picked up by dedicated  reporters.    Case in point, the Obama administration wiretapped the Trump towers.  Director Comey replied there is no evidence of this.   Should Comey have said, “No comment, it is under investigation” ? Would he have score some loyalty points?

Trump  stated in his latest interview with Judge Jeanine Pirro, that she is a fair and balanced reporter as she tossed a number of  softball questions at Trump.    I turned the channel at this point.  She is known for her non-stop rants against Hillary Clinton:

 Hillary, snap out of it,” Pirro said. “I’m tired of going through this with you. You’re a two-time loser who lost because you were a lousy candidate, you didn’t have a message, you lied every time you opened your mouth; you didn’t know what states to campaign in, you put our national security at risk with your amateur email setup, you were in a foundation that was nothing more than an organized criminal enterprise parading as a charity, four men died under your watch as you lied about a video, and there [were] a billion dollars missing from the State Department when you left. And I could go on and on, but I just don’t have the time. So, stop with the poor me nonsense. We’ve had it with you Clintons always claiming victimhood. The two of you haven’t followed the rules since the day you both showed up in your bell bottoms in Arkansas.”

Imagine if she said the same words to Trump, “You lied every time you opened your mouth,” Wow, end of interview, I sure. I watch Fox News for the news segments, not the commentary. I would not watch her show as too much tabloid gossip (Hillary steals a billion from the State Department).   Gee,  wouldn’t you think there would be an investigation?

Reporters are not going to get the straight story from government and inside information is fundamental to full reporting.    Piecing together the truth requires getting facts from people on the inside.   Leaking was given high praise by candidate Trump, and now widely condemned by President Trump.  Every person he fires from government can talk freely about their experiences.

Keep up the good work you horrible, horrible reporters from the mainstream media.    America needs you, for this president and all future presidents.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Day 3 after Comey’s Firing

by Dave

Trump’s very short notice on the firing, left many thinking the Sessions/ Rosenstein letters from the Dept of Justice was the pretense, rather than the reason for Comey’s firing.

The leaks from the White House are taken far more seriously than Trump’s notice, because they make sense.  Comey wasn’t political.  He was excessively truthful, experienced  and articulate.  These were not redeeming qualities in the mind of the President.

Why are the two letters from the Department of Justice considerable laughable?   Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein’s letter states two reasons for firing Comey all stemming from his July 5, 2016 press conference.  First was that he usurped his authority by the public announcement clearing Clinton of criminal wrongdoing.   Didn’t stop Trump,  fellow Republicans in Congress, and a half dozen commentators on Fox News from slamming Clinton and calling her a crook for the next 5 months.  In fact, Trump was attacking AG Loretta Lynch for her meeting with Bill Clinton on her plane.  Trump  wanted   to show the American people, that both the FBI and  DOJ could not be trusted for a fair evaluation of the Clinton investigation.

Rosenstein did not say that Comey broke any rule or law, only a tradition not to comment on cases until there is a review by the Justice Department.  Comey told the Senate Committee that he decided to come public after there were very unique circumstances. His decision was  related to  concern for the public’s perception of the DOJ’s impartiality.

That public perception of FBI/DOJ  cover up  was created and promoted by  Trump, and many Republicans in Congress.   Many in Congress were calling for an independent Special Investigator which would delay the conclusions of the investigation for months.  FBI/DOJ cover up  went in high gear on June 30, 2016  with the chance meeting between Lynch and Bill Clinton, on a Lynch’s private plane.  Trump accused AG Loretta Lynch of lying when she said they just talked about golf, grandchildren and other pleasantries.  He said it was BS and it was really about the email investigation.

Clinton/ Lynch Chance Meeting /  CNN  Comments

 

Now,  the second of Rosenstein’s reasons is really an over the top, piece of absurdity, only a lawyer could make.   He attacks  Comey’s derogatory comments about Hillary Clinton.  Under a normal environment, the FBI must be very careful of what is said.    However, this was hardly a normal environment, as the public was being informed every time they turned on television, that Hillary was either completely innocent or totally guilty of criminal activity.

It was great to have the FBI Director Comey at the end of his investigation to publically state to the public what exactly the FBI had discovered and had not discovered.   To do less, would have been concealment of facts to the public.  Either Clinton or Trump was going to be President, and had Comey delayed what had been finally concluded, even for one day,  would have given the public the impression of a cover up.

Of course, the real benefactor of Attorney’s derogatory  comment, was candidate Trump, who for the next six months would lamblast Clinton for her extremely reckless handling of the emails.  It is laughable that Trump would fire an FBI Directory, who at least in this aspect, helped him immensely become elected.

Comey had two messages for the American public in July 5, 2016.  The first was that Clinton was wrong in setting up an independent server for her email, and second, this activity was not at the level  of wrong doing that would be considered criminal.   The Department of Justice could have overruled Comey’s conclusion.  In fact, the DOJ has the FBI file, and they could always press charges.

So, forget this Sessions/ Rosenstein letter.    Trump never made much of it.    Comey was too straight forward, too honest, too articulate and too accurate.  No marketing skills whatsoever.  That’s what I liked about Comey.

Now,  Trump is searching for that one individual with less integrity, and more loyalty, and will still be approved by the Senate as Director of the FBI.  Good luck!

The firing  was, and still is about the Russian investigation.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Executive Order on Religious Freedom

by Dave

An Executive Order can be a temporary fix of a problem.  But in Trump’s latest order, it was all for show.  And all pretty dumb.

It was a quick fix for a problem that did not exist. Make up a problem, then offer a solution.  Likely the fix will work.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/04/trump-s-religious-liberty-executive-order-is-a-triumph-of-fake-news

Stay tuned,

Dave