Polls and Reality

I told my friend that pollsters give Hillary Clinton above 90% chance of winning.  I also said that unless something goes  incredibly wrong, she should win.

What could go wrong?    People believing the polls, and acting accordingly.  If you believe she can’t lose, then why vote?

Another words,  polls  work only if people do what they say they will.   So,  Hillary’s biggest problem may be complacency.

A 90% chance of winning does not mean Trump can’t win.   In fact, any probability greater than zero of an event occurring  is an affirmation that the event is possible.

So, if you believe in Hillary, vote for Hillary.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Losing the right way

Obama Tells Trump: Stop ‘Whining’ and Trying to Discredit the Election

New York Times Article

Trump’s comments were over the top for Marco Rubio,  Senator from Florida, seeking re-election, who has been trying to put some distance between himself and Trump:

This election is not being rigged,” Mr. Rubio said, adding that Mr. Trump “should stop saying that.” “We have 67 counties in this state, each of which conduct their own elections,” Mr. Rubio said. “I promise you there is not a 67-county conspiracy to rig this election.”

There was no backing down from Trump, which is scary.   He is laying the foundation for a speech when he loses the election.  He might not give a nasty “concession” speech- but leave enough bits of accusations of a rig system- media bias,  election fraud and big money influences,  so others can accuse the government of “ripping off the election.”

Trump’s campaign manager claims this is exactly what Al Gore did in year 2000.  It’s not true- not by a long shot.  In year 2000,  Florida vote count was extremely close and a re-counting began in certain counties where a few ballots could make a difference.  But, there are laws governing the timing of announcing election results, and the Supreme Court decided to limit the recounting.   Al Gore conceded to George Bush and never discredited the election system.

Trump doesn’t retract statements, he doesn’t apologize,  but he threatens his accusers with lawsuits.   He said he’ll  sue Jessica Drake, a pornstar, who said Trump was offering her $10,000 for sex.   No- this isn’t going to happen. Not to a single accuser.  He is suing the New York Times, and his wife is suing People magazine.

One last thing. Ultimately, the Secretary of State from each state declares the winner in the election.  If you take a look at all the toss up states, their governors are Republican.   Look at OH, FL, NC, IA, AZ, NV and even GA- all Republican!

This stuff gets Trump headlines, but nothing else.  Poor Marco Rubio- trying to distance himself from Trump, yet telling people to vote for Trump anyway because he can’t be as bad as Hillary.   It’s a tough act.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

This election is a total fraud!

Ok- did I get your attention?

I’m not talking about the 2016 election here in the US.   I’m going all the way back to 1992, in a very different part of the world,  in the country of Angola in their very first open election since independence from Portugal.

These six words were uttered by  a representative for Jonas Savimbi,  the losing candidate in the Angolan  election in 1992.   I was in Angola, and I understand Portuguese, so as I heard this on national television,  it frighten me.  I knew it was untrue.  The UN had monitored the election, and while there were irregularities, it was, on balance, a fair election.

What came through on that day in 1992, was the intense  anger in place of a concession speech.    Savimbi’s representative blasted away at the government,. declaring the entire election system was rigged.   All election results were false.  To Savimbi’s supporters,  the government had stolen the election.  If someone steals something, the natural reaction is revenge.

Savimbi did not blast away at the election results. He let others do the dirty work  for him.

Lost in all of this was the respect for  the people who worked to make sure fair elections were held in Angola.   The Carter organization had helped to monitor the elections, along with UN monitors.  My friend was one of the election monitors.  It was a dangerous voluntary work.

The trust we have in our election system,  can also be undermined by politics.   Hateful and dishonest rhetoric is dangerous.  Volunteers from the Women League of Voters, help keep our elections fair and honest.

What followed in Angola, was a resumption of a civil war, which lasted until year 2002.   So people died believing in hateful lies.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

So, who is going to win?

Right now, Hillary is in front. But,  everything depends on FIONNA   – Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.  Trump has to win Florida.  Hillary doesn’t.  Not all forecasters have the same list of toss up states.  Some consider Arizona goes to Trump, and Nevada to Clinton, so  this leaves just FION.  Or we can call it NIFO, which sounds dirty.   Florida is still the biggy in all of this.

The New York Times, upshot webpage is still the best, as it provides other forecasts;

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Third Party Candidates

A number of polls show third party candidates may pull as much as  12% of the vote in some states.    I believe this is a result of the constant mudslinging between Trump and Clinton.  If someone truly believes in what Clinton and Trump are saying about each other, then we have two of the worst human beings for the presidency.  Hillary belongs in jail for dishonesty, and Trump also, for sex offenses.

The third party candidates get off  scot- free, because we all know they can’t win.   Interviews are much easier, because there’s no checks of prior statements.

But between Trump and Clinton,  a lot of the mudslinging is just not true:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trump-twists-facts-on-wikileaks/

Nice video on last debate:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/video-town-hall-debate-fact-checks/

I did catch about 5 of the lies in the debate.  At least, I knew we were not energy independent, and never have been:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/09/investing/us-energy-independence-oil-opec/

By the way, if oil prices go down,  our dependence will go up.  I hope to post more on the US energy future.

Of course,  I knew there were NOT  bombs all over the apartment where the San Bernadino couple lived.  I just thought Trump had some source of someone seeing something suspicious in the apartment.  Nope!

Next debate, I will have my list of 10 top lies, before Jake Tapper or anyone else can post theirs.

Finally,  I think third party candidates are appearing move frequently in the media just to break up the monotony of the continual accusations between Trump and Clinton.  You can blame this on CNN and others, all day all news format.

Stay tuned

Dave

Phase III on Elections

We are almost into Phase III of the election.   All primary candidates gone, and just two candidates slugging it out until November.  We know Trump is it.  On the Democrat side, it sure looks like Hillary will be the one.  (Phase I- candidates announcing themselves,  Phase II – candidates withdrawing, Phase III – only 2 left standing, one Democrat and one Republican).

Now, the symmetry.  What Republicans are doing now, Democrats will do very soon.  Talk of party unity.  Tone down the rhetoric.  Seek forgiveness for all those people who you called stupid (is Trump paying attention).  It was all in the heat of the moment.  Plan for the pageant (sorry I meant convention).   It will go on for 3 days, but be boiled down to 3 minute spots on national “news” stations.

The stuff about who will be the VP nomination, is part of Phase III.   A whole slew of potential running mates will be suggested,  including Dave Barry, Christine Lagarde, and Harriet Tubman (I have this from a highly reliable unnamed source, although he didn’t tell me if it’s Trump, Hillary or Bernie’s short list). Can’t wait for this silliness to end.

As quietly as possible,  the two candidates will  focus in on the 7- 10 states that will be key to winning the election.   Florida is probably the biggest prize, as it has the most electoral votes.   So, it will be major sucking up times for both the Republican and Democrat candidate to get endorsements.  Plus anything that gets them  free air time (aka media coverage).  And,  you can expect a  few choice zingers from each candidate on a daily basis.

If you believe both candidates, you have to conclude that we have the two most inept people on the planet to run our government.  So by the end of the day,  many voters  might be wondering, “Why should I vote for either of these two losers?” which of course will be the topic of my upcoming blog.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Trump’s wall

Trump plans to build a wall along the Mexican border to keep Mexico from sending us, all their rapists, drug dealers and assorted criminals.   He says he will get Mexico to pay for it.

Ok, so if they pay for it, I guess it’s their wall.  Really strange.  It is like a burglar breaking into your house, to install a burglar alarm.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Who not to vote for, Again!

I just apply 3 simple rules:

  1. Don’t vote for anyone who has zero government experience
  2. Don’t vote for anyone who  has rigid conservative and religious views
  3. Don’t vote for anyone who voted against the debt ceiling increase.

Few people understand rule #3.  Voting against an increase in the debt ceiling increase  would not have changed the US debt by one cent, but it would have created havoc in financial markets (including the stock market where I have my 401K).  We would have defaulted on our debt obligations.   McCain and Graham voted for the increase in the limit.

Zero government experience eliminates Trump, Carson and Fiorina.  Rule #3 eliminates Cruz, Paul and Rubio.  Rule #2 eliminated definitely Cruz,  Huckabee and Paul.

So Jeb Bush is sinking in the polls, but my set of rules don’t exclude him.  Lindsey Graham is way down on the polls, but would get high marks for his government service.

So, where have all the moderate Republicans gone, long time passing, as the song goes.  I guess compromise and moderation just doesn’t make good TV.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Why the polls are wrong?

Trump and Hillary are leading in the poll.  Carson on the Republican side and Sanders on the Democratic side, are close seconds. Now, we are a year away from the election, and a lot will change.  Even a week before the election, with all the massive data gathered, the experts may be wrong.  Why?

  1. The proportion of people favoring one candidate or another changes.  So,  polls become less related to the overall population with time and events.  One particular event is when a candidate drops out of the race.
  2. There is a significant undecided group or people only vaguely familiar with the candidates.

The polls generally are trying to find out who will win in the primaries not the election.  When you hear that Trump is 5% above everyone else, it is with registered Republicans.   Another problem is polls ask too many questions, and people will at some point, get tired of responding.  Imagine pollsters reading off a list of 16 candidates and then asking whoever has agreed to a survey, which one is their favorite, or second favorite, or who they would not vote for in any case.  They may say they like Jindal, because the sound of his name, or Trump because he is so well known.  They are not seriously going to vote for these people.

So, how much more agony until we know which two candidates we have to choose from?  It’s a good question.  From the party’s perspective,  it would be nice to channel the maximum amount of contributions to just one candidate.  I’ve heard estimates of April to June 2016 for the final decision.   It is well decided before the primary, so the nominating conventions are just  big pageants, promoting a single candidate.

Now, the job of the pollsters should be in theory easier after the conventions,  as they have only a 50% chance of picking the wrong candidate to win.   Also, by this time,  the general platforms  of each party are well defined, so the undecided or poorly informed groups should be smaller.

All attention will be on the swing states. Candidates will work the hardest in the swing states where the polls say they are lagging.   Thus, while the polls attempt to identify who is ahead in the half dozen key states, the candidates frustrate this effort by pulling out all stops to improve their numbers.  Television plays a huge role.  Huge numbers of people polled does not necessarily translate into better predictions, because it takes time to poll many people and in that period of time, people are changing their opinions.

So, if you want to shut all this stuff out for the next 8 months- I don’t blame you.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

A pound of flesh for Republicans??? Gross stupidity

We have until Nov 3 to avoid defaulting on our debt.   Trump wants Republicans to “extract a pound of flesh” in return to approving a debt ceiling increase.  Exactly what the pound of flesh would be,  Trump wouldn’t say, but it’s obvious that there has to be something there for Trump to say that the Republicans won on the debt issue.

Jack Lew talks about self inflicted wounds on the American economy.   Trump gets a bit more graphic,  but no substance.

Republicans +1,  US  -100.

There is no issue. Or perhaps I should say that there is no issue of substance.     We spent the money, now we have to pay up.

If you attach conditions to a debt ceiling bill,  you are destroying the democratic process by letting a small minority extort demands in return for doing what we have to do to avoid sovereign default.

Trump likes that as it draws attention to him.  Saying how stupid the Obama government because they keep increasing the debt gets higher ratings.   Blaming Obama for the national debt is really dumb, as it has been grew under both Republican and Democrat Presidents.

Sovereign default  is, unfortunately,  highly destructive to our economy and businesses.  And unnecessary.

We have never defaulted on our debt payment,  counter to the nonsense coming out of  Fox news,

The Tea Party could care less about the ramifications of not paying our debt.   It  just wants more Fox news  air time on the  trillion dollar debt.

Stay tuned,

Dave Lord

 

 

 

 

Commie Sanders

Bernie Sanders, commie.   Or commie lover.  Or commie sympathizer.  Ok, this is from Trump, who is still explaining how he’s going to get the Mexican government to pay for a 2,000 mile wall.   More on that later.

Of course,  New York Republicans can be outdone by Texas Republicans any day of the week, even if they are competing in the area of stupidity.  Rep Jason Villalba accused Bernie Sanders of being a Nazi,  pretty nutsy given Sanders is Jewish.

http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/texas-republicans-idiotic-tweet-jewish-bernie-sanders-is-a-democratic-socialist-just-like-the-nazis/

Well Hitler’s party was the National Socialist Workers Party.  Actually,  the Nazi’s greatest enemy was the Democratic Socialist Party, which he destroyed by brute force.   But who  cares. This is just more dumb zingers –    Sanders is a Commie by day, Nazi by night.   I wish the election could be next week.

But Trumps zingers are just name calling, and are particularly  embarrassing. Of course Jason’s are laughable.      Laissez faire capitalism is a dead concept.   Yes, government has been regulating industry since the early 1940’s.   The child labor laws and  health and safety regulations for workers were all considered government encroaching on the rights of private industry, or communism.   The most contentious laws, the right of workers to unionize and go on strike, was held in the 1950’s as a communist plot.

Undemocratic socialism is what has been practiced in Cuba, Russia and Eastern Europe,  with disastrous results.  If anything Bernie has done, is to promote reforms in campaign finance- thus  increasing the  democratic process.

I guess since the Democrats had their attention grabbing debate and  Trump really feels out of the limelight.   There is a time to speak, and a time to sit down and shut up.

Stay tuned,

Dave Lord

 

 

 

Winning again

“Make America Great”

Trump’s theme.   Listen closely, it is more getting what we want as a country and the hell with everyone else.  You don’t tell a football team, to cut deals with the other team.

But, getting things done, whether passing bills in Congress or negotiating with other countries overseas,  it is a slow process to search for common ground and compromise.   Republicans, if they are going to solve problems,  they’ve got to work out solutions with Democrats.

It’s the big problems that require long term collaboration.    If Obama wants to get get North Korea to stop its aggressive nuclear weapons program,  then he’s got to get help from China and Russia.

Similarly with global warming.  It does exist and will require intense negotiations with hundreds of countries  to reduce carbon emissions.

Trump thought it was crazy that it took 18 months to work out a deal with Iran.   He’s not used to working with 5 other countries, with all the  complexities and the UN involvement.  He’s a one-on-one guy,  with here’s the deal, do you want it or not?   If it’s a hotel or golf course, he can walk away from a deal, with a “come back when you’re ready”  attitude.

Problem is no Republican can get on Fox News, and talk about compromising with Democrats, without looking like traitors to conservatism.  Even worse if they talk about collaborating with China and Russia on issues such as global warming and terrorism.    The big problems will not be solved by Republicans or Democrats, it will be solved by governments working around the world on common objectives.

Make America great by understanding the need for: compromise,  collaboration and diplomacy.   It is not just America will benefit because Iran is blocked from gaining nuclear weapons.  It will be the world that is great.

Stay tuned,

David Lord

 

George H.W. Bush and John Kerry

George H.W.  Bush jumped from a plane at 11:15 am, 2014 in Kennebunkport, ME  and parachuted down to the ground. It was his 90th birthday. WOW.  He did it because he can do it.   And it is an inspiration to everyone.

John Kerry is 73 years old.  He is an avid cyclist.  On May 31, 2015,  he had a bicycling accident in France. He bicycles because he can do it.

These are two outstanding examples of people with incredible energy-  not ready for the arm chair by any means.

Trump is way off base to call John Kerry stupid for bicycling in France.   Kerry is an athlete, but I honestly think Bush is even more spectacular. These are definitely two high energy,  tough guys.

I think both would agree that an occasional athletic activity or workout, relieves daily stress and improves mental health.   At advance age, it’s all about keeping the blood moving.

Stay tuned,

David Lord

Who not to vote for (Republicans)

There are 11 front runners in the upcoming CNN debate.  Following rules 1 and 2, this narrows the field down to a manageable 4 candidates:

Bush, Walker, Kasich and Christie.

Each has served or is serving as governor of a state.  If you don’t know who Walker and Kasich are, you can find out on the internet.  If you enter Walker into Google, you will find images of walkers (not people named Walker, but the thing with wheels).   There is also a movie named Walker.   It looked pretty interesting, as were the walkers.   I did also look for images of people named Walker, and Ally Walker, an actress was pretty interesting.

Ok, the guy that’s running, his first name is Scott.  Apparently, he’s dropping in the polls, so he might not be worth following.

Of our reduced list, both Kasich and Christie are at the bottom, so this pretty much leaves Jeb.  Each candidate will say how they did great things for their economy.   After the 2008 real estate crash,  the federal government was taking really massive steps to revive the economy, and most states benefited.

So, the next round of debates, look for Trump duking it out with Bush.

I’m not saying Jeb is the one to vote for- not by a long shot.  All but one has to be eliminated as the Republican Candidate.   Just trying to narrow down the field.  Guess that’s enough for now.

Stay tuned,

David Lord