Ukraine

Ukraine stalemate and Jan 20, 2025

by Dave

Peace or war? Right now, it is war. CNN has provided an excellent summary of a dramatic week, as they call it.

Link CNN: From a call with Putin to an experimental strike, a dramatic week transforms the war in Ukraine

The war is escalating, with Russia deploying North Korean troops and firing a hypersonic missile (Oreshnik). The US is in turn, has allowed Ukraine to use US missiles to attack targets in Russia and to use land mines to defend themselves against Russian advances. There are reports that Ukraine is running out of ammunition, so it is likely Biden will expedite shipments to Ukraine. He’ll do everything possible to aid Ukraine before his term ends.

For the country of Ukraine, it is simply a fight for their survival. They became an independent country on August 24, 1991. On that day, Gorbachev was still the president, but his authority was being rapidly diminished by the popularity of Boris Yeltsin, who became president on December 25, 1991.

Ukraine has never threatened the security of Russia. It’s military is much smaller than Russia’s, so many military experts were surprised on how well Ukraine defended its country. But, Putin detests the decisions made by Gorbachev and later Yeltsin, and the Russian congress, in allowing the break-up of the Soviet Union.

Trump is the big unknown. He wants to show immediately, that he is doing what is best for America and typically opts for quick solutions, like simply disengaging from problems, rather than help solving them. The war is horrible. However, the peace may be even worse, because Putin want surrender and capture of Zelensky following by the dismantling of the government. There is no happy middle ground.

Russia hasn’t retaken Kursk region, which I believe will be critical to a ground assault on Kyiv. This is not “Biden’s” war, it is Putin’s war. And Putin will not stop with Ukraine. Biden chose to help Ukraine, but never to send US troops, which I believe was a wise decision.

Trump can hand a big victory to Putin, justifying it as saving taxpayers billions of dollars. A total of 64 billions of dollars has been spent. Victory in Ukraine means Putin can use his troops elsewhere. Most likely, to support the breakaway government in eastern Libya, led by General Khalifa Hafter. The big prize there is 46 billion barrels of oil.

Putin will use the military mercenaries, Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) to gain power within Africa. I will post later on this. They are good at taking advantage of unstable situations. There are reports that the Wagner group is operating in Haiti, as the US and other countries attempt to bring order and security to the country.

As Trump seems set on a cabinet filled with Fox News hosts, and fixated on appearances and billionaires with their own agendas rather than experience, we may soon see, it is not a American first, but an American last.

Stay tuned,

Dave

The Ukraine War: Russian Counter-offensive

by Dave

As Trump assembles his next cabinet, Vladimir Putin has been assembling his troops for a major offensive. It is being called the counter offensive, because Ukrainian forces seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk Oblast region in August 2024.

Link: Ukrainian occupation of Kursk Oblast Region with Russia

Russia prepared for the attack by amassing approximately 50,000 troops according to recent reports. North Korea is reported to have sent 10,000 troops. It is unknown at this point how many North Koreans soldiers will be involved in combat.

What Russia was counting on, was that Ukraine would fight a purely defensive war. CNN reports:

The Kursk offensive, the first ground invasion of Russia by a foreign power since World War II, caught Moscow completely unprepared.

Previously, Ukraine had air strikes inside Russia, hitting strictly military targets. Ukraine’s objective is to use the occupation of the Kursk region as a bargaining chip with Russia, in hopes of a negotiated settlement.

An old military saying is the best defense is a good offense. Russia has to divert troops it would needs to hold and advance the occupied region of Ukraine to the south of Kursk to launch the counter-offensive to re-take the Kursk region.

Russia’s Intent

The city of Sudzha, Russia is very close to the Russian border with Ukraine. With the help of North Korea, Russia will retake Sudzka, then cross over into Ukraine and take Sumy, which lies just 225 miles east of Kyiv.

So, the invasion started with Russia wanting to capture Kyiv rapidly with Belarus support, by sending tanks south over the Belarus-Ukraine border, beginning in Chernobyl. Now, it will be a drive from eastward from Sudzka, to Sumy and finally Kyiv.

US Policy

I am certain at this moment, the Biden administration is looking at everything possible to help defend Ukraine. They have allowed American contractors to enter Ukraine, to repair military equipment. Of vital importance, are the Patriot missile systems and F-16 fighter jets. Also, per the link below, Biden is planning to send “billions of dollars” in defense aid before leaving office.

Link: Pentagon allows US military contractors to fix weapons in Ukraine

I don’t think Russia will make its move toward Sumy until after January 20, 2025. This is a rapidly evolving story, and I don’t know how well Ukraine can defend the captured territory in Russia.

The US has provided Ukraine with long range missile systems, but has not permitted Ukraine to use them against targets deep into Russia territory. It is obvious, that despite all efforts, the war escalates. Drones are being used on both sides. Fake drones are used to, in order to draw off the firing, so the real drones can be more effective.

Trump has stated often, that Russia would not have dared to invade Ukraine if he were president. Now, if the Sudzka invasion does takes place, it places Ukraine’s survival as an independent country at risk.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Putin’s Plan

by Dave

There’s some very scary stuff out there. Some of this is relatively new. It is not Communism, nor Fascism, but autocracies without regard to international order and expansionary ambitions. Add in nuclear capabilities, and Russia poses a grave threat.

The Wagner Group is Putin’s secret weapon, and operates very much like a terrorist organization. More specifically, the Group looks like ISIS, which profits from captured territory and uses brutality as their weapon. In my last post, The Wagner Group was hired by the existing Central African Republic to bring the diamond mines under government control, but soon the Group was collaborating with the rebel groups to also profit from the diamond industry. So, putting the fox to guard the chicken pen, and you’ll end up without many chickens.

What goes around, comes around. That’s my first axiom. Chechnya might have seem a far off conflict in 2007 when Putin’s puppet was installed, by the name of Ramon Kadyron, in the Caucasian region, but the invasion of Ukraine, first in Crimea in 2014, then full scale invasion into Donbas in 2022 made crystal clear Putin’s game plan. Of course, prior to this, Putin had vastly increased the military strength of Russia, and their involvement in Syria was kind of a testing ground for further military interventions.

What threatens autocracies is basic civil liberties, including freedom of assembly and speech. The military is used to suppress freedoms. The judiciary system loses its independence. Belarus under President Lukashenko is a perfect example of a country in decline, due to the autocratic government. Putin had easy access to Ukraine through Belarus.

Putin’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) is another threat, and it is no question that they will use cyberattacks against its enemies, including the US and our western allies. Russia interfered in our elections in 2016, and they will do it again. It wasn’t headline news, but the “Rewards for Justice” program offer of 10 million dollars for information on Russia’s interference, as posted on July 28, 2022, is a very serious effort to deepen our understanding of this threat to us and our allies.

See link: Rewards for Justice

Next axiom. The problems with Putin are long term, and awareness instead of denial, is necessary. Also, I’ll add Biden’s axiom, which is when Russia and the US are on the same battlefield, you have World War III. I give Biden high marks on finally pulling out of Afghanistan and finding ways to keep Ukraine supplied with arms without putting boots on the ground.

During the campaign, Trump loudly proclaim that he would withdraw from Afghanistan and never did. He knew how terrible it was going to look, for the US to lose a war.

In February 2022, Russia was going to blitzkrieg Kyiv through a column of tanks entering through the northern front in Belarus. This fell apart.

I don’t know where or when the next large scale advance of Putin’s expansionary plans will be. Part of his strategy is to rebuild the Russian Federation, but it is not easily done. Belarus and Chechnya toe the line with Putin, to avoid invasion. Finland and Norway are now likely to be admitted to NATO. I congratulate Secretary of State Anthony Blinken as able to persuade Turkey not to block their admission.

Russia will continue to look at weaker or less stable countries in Africa, such as Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Madagascar and Libya as opportunities to intervene. These are also countries ripe for terrorists organizations. Certainly, Libya could easily be the next Syrian style proxy war involving both the US and Russia. Military forces from the US and France are assisting Niger from the threat of terrorist group, Boko Haram, which now affects Nigeria.

Keeping Ukraine alive is expensive. From Wikipedia, “On 28 April 2022, US President Joe Biden asked Congress for an additional $33 billion to assist Ukraine, including $20 billion to provide weapons to Ukraine. On 5 May, Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine had received more than $12 billion worth of weapons and financial aid from Western countries since the start of Russia’s invasion on 24 February. On 21 May 2022, the United States passed legislation providing $40 billion in new military and humanitarian foreign aid to Ukraine, marking a historically large commitment of funds.”

Putin’s push requires push back, and there is not better way right now, than by helping to defend Ukraine sovereignty. All Democrat senators voted to support aid to Ukraine. Per CNN:

“Eleven Republican senators voted against final passage of the bill: Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, John Boozman of Arkansas, Mike Braun of Indiana, Mike Crapo of Idaho, Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Mike Lee of Utah, Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, Roger Marshall of Kansas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama.” Aid to Ukraine has become political.

Link: CNN Senate votes to pass $40 billion aid to Ukraine,

Putin’s aggressive intervention policies must be met with resistance with a coordinated response from the US and our allies. It should never become political. I strongly support all the economic sanctions levied against Russia. The US and our European allies must do everything possible to strengthen emerging democracies around the world. Every Democrat in the Senate recognized the importance of Ukraine, and seem to have a better international perspective of the dangers of Putin. So, for my part, I’m supporting Democrats in the upcoming mid-term elections.

Stay tuned,

Dave

What happens next in the Impeachment process

by Dave

There is little doubt in my mind, that the evidence is strong enough to impeach Trump.   Ambassador Taylor provided more details on the what the Ukrainian President had to deliver before receiving 391 million dollars in aid.  He had to announce in public that an investigation into Biden’s son prior work in Ukraine  was being undertaken.   This would be linked to Vice President Biden efforts to get the Ukrainian Chief Prosecutor fired.

Trump will lose in the House.  I predict a vote taken in the House in late December or early January.  Then the matter goes to the Senate.  A vote along party lines  mean that Trump will win.  How can Republicans vote to find Trump innocent can be answered in several ways.  First, that this deal never went through.   The Ukrainian President never announced an investigation of any kind.   Second,  people like Ambassador Taylor was not in constant contact with the President, and at any time Trump could change his mind.   Finally, the charges against him (Articles of Impeachment) do not rise to the level of misconduct to send Trump packing.

At present, the Republicans are arguing that the impeachment inquiry is illegal because the House has not passed a resolution to begin the inquiry.   It doesn’t need to.  The inquiry is legal.  The Fox News has yet to present on legal scholar which will say otherwise.  The inquiry can take place behind closed doors.  Both Republicans and Democrats take part in the questioning.

So, what is the final outcome?  I believe Trump will not be found guilty by a 2/3 vote and will immediately claim victory.  Maybe I’m wrong,    We shall see.

Stay tuned,

Dave