Trump’s numbers improve

Clinton has between a 65 to 86% chance of winning.  A month ago,  she had around an 85% of winning.

It’s all about swing states.  Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire  re all in this category.     Florida is likely the most important of the seven, as it has the most electoral votes.   It looked like polls were showing it to “lean Democrat”  but now, it’s really anyone’s guess.   North Carolina is another solid toss-up after being leaning Democrat in a number of polls.

I feel the best statewide polls is where the candidate’s lead margin (lead over the next candidate) consistently beats the margin of error.   The margin of error is related to the number of people polled.

Look at North Carolina.  In the 4-way race polls since August 4,   Clinton won in two polls, and Trump won in two polls.  But, the lead margins are all equal to or less than the error of margin.   So, anyway you look at it,  NC is a solid tossup.

It would be assume that Jill Stein of the Green party is taking votes  away from Hillary Clinton.   Stein is not going to win any state nor will Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.  Both candidates are attacking both Clinton and Trump,  as establishment candidates, so their overall effect is hard to factor in.   Polling was so much more consistent when it was just 2 candidates.

Another ways polls differ is whether just registered votes or all likely voters are included.  I tend to favor the likely voter polls,   but with many polling groups,  they may have difficulty with a consistent manner to determine who is likely to vote.

Trump has in the last couple of weeks  gotten the most nationwide  television coverage, which I think has help him    If he can continue the trend, it might be a close election.




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