Tariffs on imports result in reciprocal tariffs. So, if Friday, August 1, the 50% tariffs go into effect, it is a lose-lose situation.
The trial will go forward. The Supreme Court in Brazil can act similarly to a trial court in the US, setting rules on what the accused can do outside of the courtroom. Bolsonaro protested his arrest on social media, in violation of a court order. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the trial, could have arrested Bolsonaro, but declined stating it was an isolated violation. He stated that Bolsonaro may participate in interviews with the news media.
In the trial, prosecutors believe there is sufficient evidence to support a radical plan to bring Bolsonaro back into power, through a declaration of a national emergency as a result of the attack on the Capital. Military leaders who supported Bolsonaro would then step in, forcing Lula out of office.
The charges against Bolsonaro are for actions he took while out of office, so he can not claim presidential immunity as Trump did.
This is a very dynamic situation. The easiest way to cool things off is for Trump to push back the deadline. Lula can not drop the charges, but perhaps there are means to make the judicial process and evidence presented as transparent as possible.
But, Trump can dial up the heat, because Brazil buys petroleum products from Russia. As part of new sanctions against Russia, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs against countries that buy Russian oil, and Brazil certainly could be included in this group, which includes China and India.
I have not read anything that indicates Trump’s likely next move, although my thinking is that he will try to cool off the situation. He may not like it, but he is the TACO president (Trump always chickens out).
Trump feels he can use tariffs to make countries do what he says. Generally, Brazil is considered a good ally of the US, pretty much like Canada. Unlike Canada and Mexico, Brazil has a trade surplus with the US. so there is no basis for tariffs based on unequal trade. It is really amazing how Trump easily turns our allies into our enemies. Germany, France, Mexico, Canada and now Brazil. I could add the entire EU, as he’s threaten them with tariffs.
Trump has threatened 50% on all Brazilian exports due to the arrest of the former president, Jair Bolsonaro on charges that he was leading an armed criminal organization in an attack of the capital on January 8, 2023. Brazil has responded that they will immediately reciprocate with equal tariffs on US goods.
Trump’s idea is the threat of massive tariffs can result in world leaders come crawling to Trump and begging for mercy. It is a fantasy. But, it seems to play well to his base.
Background
Jair Bolsonaro was President of Brazil from January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2023. He ran for re-election in November 2022, and lost to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a very close election. It was a clash between right wing factions (Bolsonaro) and left wing (Lula). January 1, 2023 was President elect Lula’s inauguration and it was a calm day, with a message of rebuilding and unity. See link below:
But a storm was brewing. Busloads of Bolsonaro supporters began arriving in Brasilia following inauguration day. The attacks (or insurrection or attempted coup by radical supporters) took place in government buildings on January 8. See link below:
The attacks were investigated and many arrests were made. Prosecutors in March 2025 felt they had enough evidence to charge Jair Bolsonaro with being part of the planning of the attack. It was reported by ABC News as follows:
“The prosecution accuses Bolsonaro of leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to stage a coup and attempting the violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, aggravated damage, and deterioration of listed heritage sites.
A federal police investigation placed Bolsonaro at the top of a criminal organization that had been active since at least 2021. Police say that after Bolsonaro’s loss to Lula, the organization conspired to overturn the election result.
Part of that plot included a plan to kill Lula and a Supreme Court justice, the prosecution alleges. It also says that the Jan. 8 riot when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked top government buildings a week after Lula took office was an attempt to force military intervention and oust the new president.”
Trump announced the proposed 50% tariffs on Brazil on July 9 despite a U.S. trade surplus with the country – lining it up for one of the world’s very highest such levies, close to China’s 55% rate. Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro.
President Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes responses
Brazil’s President Lula responded that he did not have the authority to drop charges against Bolsonaro. Unlike the US, Brazil doesn’t have a Special Prosecutor within the Executive branch which can investigate crimes of government officials. But Special Prosecutors can be dismissed very easily, and the charges dropped.
The Brazilian Supreme Court Justice does not take orders from President Lula and has authority to investigate, charge and adjudicate certain violations of federal law. It is designed to keep rich and powerful people honest.
On July 11, 2025, the Supreme Court of Brazil forced Bolsonaro to wear an ankle monitor and conducted a search of his home. Justice Alexandre de Moraes considers Bolsonaro a flight risk. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a Brazilian Congressman, has been living in Texas since February and lobbying the White House to intervene.
Under court orders, Bolsonaro must remain in his home during nights and weekends, may not have any contact with foreign officials. He is barred from social media.
Hours later, Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State, joined the fray by posting on X, that he was revoking visas of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes as well as his immediate family members and allies. A total of 8 Supreme Court Justices had their visas revoked according to O Globo.
If Trump thought that President Lula would cave in, he was mistaken. Trump stated the 50% tariffs would begin on August 1. President Lula response is simple, as shown below, O Brasil e dos brasileiros, or “Brazil belongs to its people.” Two can play the MAGA game! But Lula is standing his ground.
“Lula, who had been facing growing public disillusionment and an uphill battle to win re-election next year, has enjoyed a bounce in the polls since Trump launched his trade war, the brunt of which will be borne by coffee producers and cattle ranchers in Bolsonaro-voting regions, such as São Paulo.”
The trial of Bolsonaro is strictly an internal affair, and the US has no right to interfere. Bloomberg reports that the White House is looking for some legal justification.
There are many other exports from Brazil which will be impacted. Brazil exported 42.3 billion dollars of goods and services to the US last year.
A panel of judges will hear the case against Bolsonaro. They will decide if Bolsonaro is guilty of the charges, and will likely give their verdict before the end of the year.
“You shall reap what you have sown” old proverb, meaning you will suffer the consequences of your actions.
When Donald Trump in Nov 2020 and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in October 2022 lost their bids for re-election, they refused to accept their loss. Both of them concocted lies which attacked the integrity of election. It was all very planned out and in both cases, within a few months, violence broke out in the capitals of their country. US Capitol attack occurred on January 6, 2021 and the federal buildings in Brasilia were attacked on January 8, 2022, encouraged by unfounded claims from the ex-Presidents.
But both Trump and Bolsonaro maintained a lie that the elections were rigged, and they were the legitimate winners of the election. Both perpetuated these lies by fabricating “evidence” of fraud. It is exactly what many of their supporters wanted to hear. Many people in the US and Brazil are in prison for the violence. Five people are dead as a result of the violent attack on the capital, and many police officers were injured as a result of the violence.
Trump schemed with other White House officials to have Mike Pence dismiss the results of the election in states where he lost by a narrow margin and prepared a slates of false electors. This is, in part, why he is facing charges of conspiracy in Georgia. We have the freedom of assembly and speech in the US, but when the communications are at the foundation of plans to break the law, then this becomes part of the crime.
At the local, state and federal level of government, violations of election laws can be investigated. Volunteers also act as observers and can report any violation. The courts heard more than 50 challenges from Trump’s team of lawyers. None of them were successful in changing the results of the election. On December 23, 2020, the US Attorney General, William Barr, announced that no fraud had been found that would change the results of the election. Similar conclusions were reached by the Director of Cyber Security, Chris Krebs, who was then fired by Trump.
In Brazil, just days prior to the election, Bolsonaro reduced fuel prices to gain favor with Brazilian truckers. On election day, truckers formed blockades to prevent voters from going to the polls in the Northeast region of Brazil, where the worker’s party with Lula Da Silva as the presidential candidate, was favored to win. The police set up checkpoints, causing more difficulties for voters. The federal justices which oversee the election process, voted to end the blockade and police checkpoints on election day. As a result, voters were delayed but not denied the opportunity to vote.
In Brazil, political parties have recourse in the judicial system (federal election court, headed by Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes) to hear their complaints of an unfair election and take appropriate actions. So Bolsonaro’s party presented to the court their arguments that the machines which tallied the votes were flawed and should be disregarded. The discrepancy was very minor, and did not affect the actual tally. The court quickly rejected the allegations of Bolsonaro’s party.
So, both Trump and Bolsonaro challenged the election results through the courts, but failed to show any convincing evidence of fraud. Trump should have conceded to Biden after the formal voting of electors on December 14, 2020. Bolsonaro should have conceded to Lula da Silva after the federal election court rejected the baseless claim of fraud on November 23, 2022.
Instead of recognizing the importance of election integrity and national unity, they continued their attack on the election which they clearly lost. The legal system has caught up with both leaders.
January 8, 2023 riot in Brasilia, the capital of Brazil resembled January 6, 2020 in some ways, but very different in others. It was widely anticipated that there would be massive protest turning into violence on inauguration day, January 1, 2023. This did not happen. There was a lot of speculation that the military would step in prior to January 8 and Lula da Silva would not be inaugurated. In fact, the more radical supporters of Bolsonaro hoped he would void the election by calling in the military. Again, this was completely unfounded, just a lot of Facebook posting nonsense.
The idea of calling in the military to “fix” an election result, is a very good way to end a democracy. Every dictator depends on the military to control the population. Just go ask Vladimir Putin.
The general election was held on October 2, 2022. The runoff election between Bolsonaro and Lula was held on October 30, 2022, and Lula was declared the winner on October 31.For a summary of the Brazilian first general election and runoff presidential election (Oct 30, 2022) see the link below:
Bolsonaro is not Trump. This is meant as a compliment. I was relieved when Bolsonaro made a brief statement on November 1, saying that he authorized his chief of staff to begin the transition process. In essence, he was telling millions of supporters that the election was over. There is no legal requirement to concede. All he has to do is step aside, and he did this.
He said everything he does is within the mandates of the constitution. Thank God for this. Everything seem quick and final. Brazil has no write in or mail in voting. It is 100% electronic and considered by many, to be reliable. Every Brazilian has a national identity number and getting a job is difficult without it. There was no “Stop the Steal” craziness or 61 attempts to challenge the results in court. But, he refused to acknowledge that Lula had won. I thought from November 1 to January 1 (inauguration day) things would cool off.
Per Wikipedia: “On 22 November, he and his party formally contested the election result, after an audit revealed that electronic voting machines made before 2020, which comprised 59% of machines used in the 2022 election, lacked identification numbers in their internal logs. They requested that the Superior Electoral Court invalidate the votes recorded by the affected machines, which would result in Bolsonaro being elected with 51% of the remaining valid votes. However, experts claimed that the software error did not affect the election results and pointed out that the identification numbers did appear in the physical vote records printed by the machines.[313] On the next day the court rejected the request and fined the party R$22.9 million (US$4.3 million) for what it considered bad faith litigation.[314]”
Unlike the US, there is only one ultimate authority on election integrity, and that is the Superior Electoral Court headed by Alexandre de Moraes. See link below for his background
The Brazilian system of justice may be flawed, but at least candidates need only to petition one court with their complaints. Justice Alexandre de Moraes was astute enough to ask if the results from 59% of voting machines were to be invalidated, did this apply to the first election and the runoff? The problem for Bolsonaro’s party was that many of their candidates for Governor, Senator and Congress won in the first election, so of course they did not want to throw out these favorable results. It was immediately obvious to everyone involved that the court filing was just a publicity stunt.
False information about the voting machines spread quickly both in Brazil and the US. I received several postings on Facebook saying that in truth, Bolsonaro had won 73% of the vote. It seems the Brazilian community in Miami were very quick to hit the share icon.
It is definitely true that Steve Bannon and others in the US were trying to package and sell the “Stop the Steal” campaign stuff to far right groups in Brazil after Bolsonaro lost. But, for the most part, it isn’t packageable, at least not yet. It really takes powerhouses like Sean Hannity and Carlson Tucker on Fox News to spread misinformation to fuel the anger and frustration that comes from losing an election.
There are other enormous differences between Brazil and the US in the months after the election. While Bolsonaro’s party did file in court that the voting machines were flawed, this was quickly ruled on and dismissed. In the US, Trump was taking every possible opportunity to advance the “Stop the Steal” movement in court filings and fully endorsed the angry mob on January 6, 2020 that was on the brink of becoming violent. The Save America campaign was created to raise money to keep the “big lie” alive. There was no equivalent in Brazil. Thank God!
There was desecration of artwork in official rooms I am glad that no one died in the riot on January 8, 2022. No official, including Bolsonaro, referred to the rioters as patriots. No politician downplayed or minimized the impact of the January 8 riots, as Republican lawmakers had done in the US. It was recognized as an anti-democracy attack.
I am also glad to hear over 1,000 rioters (some reports are 1,500) were arrested. They seemed to be filming themselves, for posting to social media. I’m certain many cellphones will be confiscated as evidence. Note to rioters, don’t bring expensive iphones to riots.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes suspended Governor of Brasilia, Ibaneis Rocha from his job as governor for at least 90 days, saying that the upheaval “could only occur with the consent, and even effective participation, of the security and intelligence authorities.” The supporters of Bolsonaro had set up tent cities in Brasilia and Rio de Janeiro. The court ordered them dismantled.
Lula da Silva has got a huge challenge now, convincing Brazilians he truly wants to unite the country. The voting system of Brazil works. Many will go on believing that the election was stolen and Lula now will turn Brazil into an autocratic communist country like Cuba. The democratic structure of Brazil is too strong for this to happen.
Bolsonaro is too proud to say he lost in a free and fair election. But he shown to be much better than Trump, as he has conceded to others in private that he lost the election. He is now in the US, for medical treatment. I wish him well.
Jair Bolsonaro is President of Brazil, a country with 211 million residents. He is up for re-election in 2022. He is a right-wing populist, and in many ways similar to Donald Trump.
The norms of a working democracy are that the candidate enters an election to win the approval of the people and a willingness to accept the results, if he loses. Trump’s approach was that if he won, it showed he was the better candidate and if he lost, the election was rigged against him. Thus, he solidified his base against Democrats and the new president and in doing so, undermined the election in general. It is sadly all about fund raising, to maintain the base.
Similar to Trump, Bolsonaro claimed the electronic voting machines can’t be trusted. It’s all sounds very familiar. In the US, the lawyers who made the claims for Trump, namely Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell, are facing serious civil lawsuits from the voting machine companies. Sidney Powell may be face disbarment in the states where these claims and others were made, and lacking any evidence.
These lies had consequences. Five people died on January 6, 2021 as the Capitol in Washington was taken over by rioters. It was a very sad day in our history. Since the day it was clear Trump had lost the election, he was making wild claims that the election was stolen, so storming the capitol was a normal reaction of a citizenry who thought their rights to free election was being taken from them. “Stop the Steal” wasn’t just political rhetoric, it was the prelude to a violent attack on our legislators and the vice president of the United States.
Bolsonaro is following closely in Trump’s footsteps. He stated there were only 3 outcomes of the election: He would be re-elected, arrested or killed. (see link below). Another words, if he loses the election, it is because the electoral system failed, and now his enemies would come after him.
“As president, Bolsonaro is allowed and expected to take part in public discussions,” Corbo said. “What he cannot do — and has been doing — is systematically attack the electoral system by which he was elected.” Dr. Corbo is a constitutional law professor in Brazil.
Sadly, I’ve seen this before, way before Trump. Angola’s very first election in 1992, was between the current President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and UNITA’s leader, Jonas Savimbi. The election was to be a triumph of democratic process, ending a decades long civil war, which killed 300,000 Angolans. To this day, I can recall the words of Savimbi’s press secretary, in a shrill voice, calling the election a total fraud and totally lacking in credibility. So, for those that believed the party’s lie, Dos Santos was not the elected candidate, he was not their president, and no one bore any allegiance to him. The election had not been rigged. The UN had monitored the election. Savimbi had enough military equipment and soldiers to re-ignite the civil war, and violence broke out in Luanda, the capital of Angola. The war ended in 2002 with the death of Savimbi.
What Trump was looking for, was a way to legitimize his claims, through Congress, the Justice Department and each state where the Democrats won by a narrow margin (Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan, to name a few) that the election results were false and he had won.
I am hoping that Brazilians deny Bolsonaro a second term, and are smart enough to see through his lies. If he’s the Brazilian Trump, then the next step will be to take whatever measures he can, to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election. I’m afraid the increase rhetoric can turn to violence as it did in the US. Or worse Angola.
May 24, 2006 marks the release of the documentary film, Inconvenient Truth. The film documented Al Gore’s decades long campaign to increase awareness on global warming. It was appropriately titled. Climate change or global warming wasn’t the headline news at least in 2006. See link below on the film.
Al Gore is an unabashed environmental activist since he was elected to Congress at the age of 28. At age 73, Gore is still hard at work raising awareness and pro-actively supporting cooperation. Being pro-active, meaning heeding clear warning signs of impending disasters and taking appropriate actions. Some should take note of the recent Surfside condominium collapse of a good example of the cost of inaction until disaster comes.
“No challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change” is from Obama’s State of the Union address in 2015. The statement was immediately ridiculed on Fox News. CNN reported, “His statement was met with scattered, muted applause.” President Barack Obama described as the greatest threat to future generations was neither terrorism nor ISIS. It wasn’t nuclear weapons in rogue states either.
Nobody needs to convince the residents of California or Oregon that climate change effects can be life threatening as temperatures soared above 100 degrees. Bloomberg reports: “In the past week alone, 380,000 people have been evacuated due to floods in China’s Henan province, 30 villages in Uganda were affected as rivers overflowed and 25 people died in landslides after Mumbai was hit by big storms that also inundated regions surrounding the megacity. Temperatures in Turkey and North Africa approached 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit), while South Africa and Brazil froze. Siberia is battling wildfires again.”
“The global climate is out of balance” as stated in the Bloomberg link below. It will take enormous international cooperation to bring down global carbon emissions. We have finally a president who will work with world leaders on cutting emissions. But unfortunately, Congress is less committed, and they hold the purse strings.
Even worse, is the defiant President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who seems in locked in the mentality of last century, where there was zero appreciation of the impact of carbon emissions our climate, and complete deference to industrial development. See the last link of this blog, where the federal government is accelerating the destruction of the Amazon rainforest, for profit.
Yes, Gore got it right from the get go, so did Obama. Biden is on the right track. China. India and the EU will work with the international groups. Brazil? Some really get it.
In Brazil, the daily deaths due to Covid-19 made an all time record, of 2,286 on March 10, 2021. These are people who did not make it out of the hospital. This is four times as many people as four month ago. This is real and it is scary. Brazilian hospitals are overrun with new cases. When hospitals run short of equipment such as ventilators, more people die.
Deaths from Covid-19 in the world are trending down. Only about 1% of the world is fully vaccinated. The US is far head with 10% fully vaccinated. Brazil has fully vaccinated only 1.4%. of its 211 million residents. Note that reports of a 4% level of vaccination for Brazil is based on “one or more” vaccinations rather than the required two shots.
The progress in the world is likely a combination of vaccines plus stricter restrictions on travel and social gatherings in clubs, bars, restaurants, weddings, church sermons and family re-unions. Enforcement of mask wearing rules and social distancing I am certain helped reduce Covid-19 worldwide.
Brazil is going the wrong way in general, with the new record high. I predict by May, they will be averaging 2500 daily deaths, with fewer than 5% of the population fully vaccinated. Brazil accounts for 18% of all deaths from Covid-19 worldwide and may climb to 40% by May, 2021 (2500 in Brazil verses 6000 worldwide).
There is competition in the purchase of vaccines. Brazil is now looking at ways to increase the supply of vaccines from China (see links below), while three months ago, it was hostile to the idea of testing of Chinese vaccines in Brazil in return for additional supplies. The efficacy of Sinovac vaccine (Coronavac) was reported to be only 50%, but it was 70% in preventing moderate to severe cases, which is very good. The severe cases can result in death, particularly among my group (older males). From everything I’ve read, Brazilians are ready to take the vaccine, but the supply is extremely limited.
Because vaccines are never 100% effective, the wearing of masks and social distancing are still required. As long as there is a high rate of new infections, restrictions must stay in effect. Biden last night delivered a powerful speech, in asking the American public to take precautionary measures to prevent a new surge in new infections. Brazil needs to look on how it can best reverse course.
We will get rid of Covid-19 only by everyone’s action in every country in the world. There is no magic pill.
Covid-19 is exponentially increasing in Peru, Brazil and Mexico. Covid-19 has the capability of doubling the new cases in 2-3 days. Each infected person gives it to 2-3 people before they become so sick that they are confirmed infected. The lax attitude of their leaders is partially to blame.
If anything has proven effective, it is lockdowns including travel and social distancing, whether we like it or not. Someone with Covid-19 symptoms must immediately be isolated.
Covid-19 is worldwide, and international cooperation, including the WHO and aid organizations, is critical. I am hoping that a vaccine can be found which is safe, effective and easily accessible to everyone in the world. If not, it will come back to China or Europe, and we will see a second wave. World problems are solvable when we pull together.
We are in a trade war. It raises the price of many items. When prices go up, sales go down, stores close and people lose jobs. Both the Chinese and Americans will pay a hefty price. US farmers are basically on welfare, accepting government handouts Our relations with many countries, including Canada and Mexico have been severely weakened. Other countries, not the US, will take the lead in cut carbon emissions and slow the devastating effects of climate change. We applaud dictatorships. We turn our heads as Brazil dismantles the oversight environmental groups, so President Bolsonaro can step up the destruction of the Amazon rainforest without any internal dissent. We will soon present to the world a Israel-Palestinian peace plan, which has zero support in Palestine. It is hope only a political document, aimed at Trump’s re-election. We have cause serious disruption in the UN negotiations for peace settlement in Libya by siding with General Haftar, (with Egyptian, UAE, Saudi Arabia direct military support and Russia’s support as well).
I correctly predicted this back in August 2015 in my blog:
Ok. I’m in favor of fresh blood, but not that fresh. Donald Trump can sell. He’s been selling his whole life. If you put up a luxury condominium, you have to sell it for top price- and this is what Trump has doing for the last about 30 years. These days, he pushes Trump brand. All I hear from Trump is marketing. Great marketing and maybe it’s enough for domestic consumption. He isn’t capable of building international cooperative agreements. He’s thinks way too much in terms of power relationships as dividing the world into friends and enemies. This was the great Bush/Cheney failure.
Did I get it right? Yesterday, Trump downplayed the missile launches by North Korea as unimportant, while John Bolton, US National Security Adviser stated that they were a direct violation of the UN resolution against North Korea. In this case Bolton was clearly right. Trump leaves Japan with Prime Minister Shinzou Abe not knowing who to believe.
Trump is not the master of negotiations. It’s all themes. He is a salesman, and more at home at his rallies.
Mariana denovo! Meu Deus! In Portuguese, this means “Mariana again, my God.”
This is in reference to the dam that collapsed in Mariana, Minas Gerais, Brazil in November 2015, killing 19 people, spilling 60 million cubic meters of toxic mud and completely destroying the town of Bento Rodrigues. There were warning signs before the collapse. The company had hired experts, who identified problems with the dam. But the operation company Samarco, a consortium between Vale and BHP, did too little, too late. The investigation of the Mariana dam collapse lead to criminal charges, fines and lawsuits. The environmental damage stretch all the way to the mouth of the Rio Doce river, to the Atlantic Ocean. Toxic elements found in the tailings include mercury, arsenic and lead. See link below.
The criminal charges and lawsuits provided Value strong motivation to insure their dams were safe. But there’s an lot about Vales’s Brumadinho dam collapse that seems similar to Mariana. On January 25, 2019 an earthen dam,holding back 11.7 million cubic feet of tailings from an iron ore mine broke and immediately created a huge mud flow for two miles. From video shot at the time, it was a catastrophic failure with a breach in the lower sections of the dam, leading to a total caving in of the upper sections of the dam. Heavy rainfall is likely a contributing factor.
As of Feb 23, 177 people are confirmed dead and 133 people are considered missing. (see Wikipedia link) Many of the victims were Vale’s employees. The force of the flood was tremendous, overturning buses, destroying homes and hotels, and drowning their occupants. A section of a bridge collapsed. The mud swept over approximately a square mile of land. It definitely could have been worse. The mud flow veered east of the village of Vale de Cachoreira (valley of the water fall), taking some lives but sparing others. An alarm system failed to go off. Vale stated this failure was unimportant, as most of the destruction occurred in a matter of seconds.
As with the Mariana disaster, there were warning signs. Right now, all eyes are focused on a German firm TUV SUD who performed the last safety inspection in September 2018. There is evidence that they were reluctant to sign off on the certificate of safety, but management in Vale pressured them. There is a serious conflict of interest in these inspections, as Vale hires the outside firm, and pays them for the inspection. Obviously, more direct involvement is needed from the government. The shut down of a tailing pit, I would think, could shut down operations at a mine, so there will always be some resistance. But two accidents of this magnitude ought to be sufficient incentives for change.
The environmental impact is still being assessed. High mercury concentrations were found in the river below the spill after the collapse. Metal contaminants do not decompose with time. The will become more dilute as they flow downstream. Unfortunately toxic elements can be concentrated in fish and other animals, leading to real health risks.
Earth dam collapses due to mining operations have occurred in many countries, including the US, India, Italy and Japan. The precipitating event is often heavy rainfall, but preceding this, are typically structural defects. In the case of Brumadinho, the rain lead to a process called “liquidification” where solids in the tailings became mobile. Clogged dam outlets may have contributed to the Brumadinho disasterer. With sifting weather patterns due to global warming, the historical rainfall patterns may become less predictable, requiring extra measures to insure safety in all tailings pits. Brazil has many tailing pits in worse condition than Brumadinho. This latest disaster should be considered a wake up call to Brazil (as if Mariana wasn’t enough!).
The US has its own share of disasters. In year 2000, in Marin County, Kentucky, a coal mining tailing pit failed. According to Wikipedia, “The water supply for over 27,000 residents was contaminated. The spill was 30 times larger than the Exxon Valdez oil spill and one of the worst environmental disasters ever in the southeastern United States.” Beyond permitting requirements, a vigilant monitoring and safety inspections, free of conflict of interest with mining operators seem essential. Remember the saying, “What comes around, goes around.” The next Mariana, or Brumadinho type disaster might be in West Virginia, Michigan or Kentucky.
This is a translated version of Bolsonaro: International cooperative agreements into Portuguese. It concerns the upcoming Brazilian elections. It is provided by Google and likely contains errors.
A tradução foi fornecida pelo Google e provavelmente contém erros.
Em cerca de 10 dias, os brasileiros irão à votação e elegerão Jair Bolsonaro ou Fernando Haddad. Temo que Bolsonaro siga o mesmo caminho de Donald Trump, como um destruidor de acordos cooperativos internacionais. Eu temo que os brasileiros não entendam completamente o papel vital que seu país desempenha no aquecimento global e a absoluta necessidade de políticas governamentais agressivas para proteger a Amazônia.
Por causa do terrível histórico de Donald Trump sobre proteção ambiental, espero que meu país possa encontrar um novo líder no ano 2020. Donald Trump nunca pede desculpas por suas políticas equivocadas. Ele mente constantemente e exagera seu sucesso.
Os EUA no século passado sofreram fome na década de 1930 durante uma depressão econômica e depois uma terrível guerra mundial, onde 60 milhões de pessoas morreram no mundo. Este era o mundo dos meus pais. Das cinzas da guerra, surgiu um novo espírito internacional cooperativo, que é melhor exemplificado pela criação das Nações Unidas. Trump enfraqueceu a ONU. Bolsonaro seguirá Trump.
A ONU foi projetada para resolver disputas entre as nações. Uma das maiores conquistas da ONU foi a ratificação do Pacto Nuclear do Irã, que sujeitou o país do Irã a inspeções completas de suas instalações em troca do levantamento das sanções. Os EUA em breve estarão em violação direta deste acordo.
O Acordo do Clima de Paris da ONU foi um grande avanço no reconhecimento internacional sobre o aquecimento global como uma ameaça ao nosso planeta. O Brasil é um parceiro vital para deter o desmatamento da Amazônia. Compartilha essa responsabilidade com o Peru, Colômbia, Venezuela e Equador.
Jair Bolsonaro tem pouco interesse em construir os laços de cooperação e trabalhar com a ONU nesse esforço. De acordo com o Guardian:
Na Amazônia, madeireiros ilegais, mineradores, grileiros e grandes proprietários de terras se uniram à sua bandeira. Aqui, eles não esperam que Bolsonaro cumpra a lei. Pelo contrário, a esperança é que ele cumpra sua promessa de obliterar quase toda a legislação ambiental e pró-indígena. Ele ganhou apoio maciço em estados rurais do centro-oeste e todos menos um estado da Amazônia.
Em agosto, Bolsonaro levantou preocupações internacionalmente quando prometeu ingressar nos Estados Unidos de Trump e retirar o Brasil do acordo de Paris. Isso significa que o país não estaria mais comprometido em conter suas emissões do desmatamento da Amazônia, que é aqui uma fonte maior de gás de efeito estufa do que a queima de combustíveis fósseis.
O Brasil pode, claro, ainda insistir que as emissões de automóveis dos EUA são as culpadas, ou a queima de carvão da Índia. No final, o aquecimento global é desastroso para todo o planeta, assim como a 2ª Guerra Mundial. Nós somos um planeta.
If you are not Brazilian, the title of this blog likely means nothing. It literally means “Oust Temer.” Brazilians hope that their president will either be impeached or resign. Currently, resignation does not appear to be likely.
My latest information is that in about six months time, Temer will be impeached on the grounds of corruption. He never was elected, but took over after President Dilma Rousseff was impeached.
Dilma was sent packing in August 2016. She became very unpopular in 2015 after Brazil’s economy went into recession due to falling commodity prices, most importantly oil and iron. It was suspected that she had some involvement in the Car Wash (Lavo Jato) scandal, which involved kickbacks on contracts from Petrobras, but there was never any proof of this. She was impeached due to “creative accounting” as follows:
Brazilian governments are required to meet budget surplus targets set in Congress. Ms Rousseff is accused of allowing creative accounting techniques involving loans from public banks to the treasury that artificially enhanced the budget surplus.
This gave the appearance that government accounts were in better shape than they actually were. The surplus is one of the measures taken into account by investors of how sound an economy is.
Ms Rousseff has always maintained she did not act criminally in budgetary affairs.
She says many other presidents, mayors and state governors always used the same creative accounting techniques and were never punished for them.
The president says this is merely being used as a legal excuse – that her impeachment is nothing but an attempted coup by the opposition.
The Lavo Jato scandal was enormous with investigations of 232 persons, including former Brazilian President Lula.
Rousseff has claimed that her Vice President Temer at the time, was disloyal, and plotted with the opposition party to get rid of her.
President Temer is not being impeached for the Car Wash scandal, although many believe he had some involvement. He is being impeached for a meat inspection bribery scandal, called the “JBS meat scandal.” See link to the New York Times:
JBS is described as a global meat packing empire, and its CEO, Joesley Batista, has a tape recording between Temer and himself, implicating Temer in bribery corruption scandal. Temer claims the tape has been doctored, so technical experts will be need to authenticate the recording.
Impeachment proceedings may take at least six months, so the legislature could send Temer packing before Christmas. The next President would be a stand in, as elections will be held in 2018.
The economy of Brazil is likely not change much, with an enormous differences between the very wealthy upper class, and the large, poorly educated lower class. Unemployment is likely to be above 10% but this does not tell the full story, with high unemployment in the lower paying jobs.
Perhaps, what is missed is that through these impeachments, the concept of three branches of government, is working as it is designed. Companies can’t just slip bribes to legislators or the executive branch for favors. At least sometimes they get caught by the courts and the penalties can be severe.
Democracies collapse as in Venezuela, when the executive branch colludes with the legislature to limit the power of the courts. Or the president simply ignores the power of the courts. What should emerge finally from Brazil, is the three branches of government are still sufficiently independent to keep the democratic process working. A corrupt free Brazil is not around the corner, but neither is the situation in Venezuela or a number of African counties (Burundi and Zimbabwe come to mind) where democracy has vanished.
And it is further hoped that more honest Brazilians will enter politics, in an effort to improve the government ruled by the people of Brazil.
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