elections

Veepstakes

by Dave

Trump will pick Jeff Sessions.  It’s a close call.   The bookies are divided between Sessions and Gingrich with lower odds on Christie and Kasich.   Bob Corker  has recently been added to the short list by CNN,  although the bookies have him ranked lower than the rest.

You can argue until the cows come home who Trump should nominate.  I originally said he would pick Joni Ernst,  but she’s out based on her recent comments.   Trump will win most southern states, so Corker and Sessions don’t bring much to the ticket.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Stage III finally

by Dave

We are finally here.  Thank God.  It’s Hillary v. Donald, with a few loose ends, like Bernie’s final capitulation.   It’s off to the pageants- oh I mean conventions,  then each candidate  vying for the seven toss up states.

It is  nasty- with hot headed Donald, and the corrupt Hillary, exchanging barbs every day.

Florida will decide the election.   South Florida are solid Democrat, and more rural areas are Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Phase III on Elections

by Dave

We are almost into Phase III of the election.   All primary candidates gone, and just two candidates slugging it out until November.  We know Trump is it.  On the Democrat side, it sure looks like Hillary will be the one.  (Phase I- candidates announcing themselves,  Phase II – candidates withdrawing, Phase III – only 2 left standing, one Democrat and one Republican).

Now, the symmetry.  What Republicans are doing now, Democrats will do very soon.  Talk of party unity.  Tone down the rhetoric.  Seek forgiveness for all those people who you called stupid (is Trump paying attention).  It was all in the heat of the moment.  Plan for the pageant (sorry I meant convention).   It will go on for 3 days, but be boiled down to 3 minute spots on national “news” stations.

The stuff about who will be the VP nomination, is part of Phase III.   A whole slew of potential running mates will be suggested,  including Dave Barry, Christine Lagarde, and Harriet Tubman (I have this from a highly reliable unnamed source, although he didn’t tell me if it’s Trump, Hillary or Bernie’s short list). Can’t wait for this silliness to end.

As quietly as possible,  the two candidates will  focus in on the 7- 10 states that will be key to winning the election.   Florida is probably the biggest prize, as it has the most electoral votes.   So, it will be major sucking up times for both the Republican and Democrat candidate to get endorsements.  Plus anything that gets them  free air time (aka media coverage).  And,  you can expect a  few choice zingers from each candidate on a daily basis.

If you believe both candidates, you have to conclude that we have the two most inept people on the planet to run our government.  So by the end of the day,  many voters  might be wondering, “Why should I vote for either of these two losers?” which of course will be the topic of my upcoming blog.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

US Elections- No more landslides

by Dave

The chance of a  landslide election is slim in a presidential election.  I define a landslide election as when the winner gets over 400 electoral votes.    I got most of my information from the website shown below, which I think is terrific:

www.270towin.com

There has been no landslide elections since since 1988 with Bush beating Dukakis.  Boy, did Dukakis get beat!  But that was 28 years ago.

I’ll define a double landslide at more than 400 electoral votes, and 60% of the popular vote.  Bush won in 1988  with just 53% of the popular vote- no double landslide.  Reagan’s victory against Mondale in 1984 was close to a double landslide, with 59% of the popular vote.  To get a real double landslide, you have to go back to 1972, when Nixon crushed McGovern with 520 electoral votes, and 61% of the votes.

I’ve just named three Republican presidents who crushed their opponents.   Democrats have had their share of landslide elections.  If I go back further in time,  Roosevelt was overwhelmingly elected three times in a row.

For a landslide victory to occur,  there has to be a large group of undecided voters which can be swayed by the candidate themselves instead of the party.    I guess this just  doesn’t   happen anymore.   The party platforms don’t change much either, so Republican voters have a pretty good idea of their candidate’s beliefs, and so do Democrats.

Texas will vote Republican.  California and New York will go to Democrats.   Deep South, from Georgia to Louisiana,  is Republican.  Midwest is solidly Republican.   New England is solidly Democratic, with the exception of New Hampshire, a swing state.

So,  the 2012 list of swing states still holds,  and Florida remains the largest of the 8- 10 swing states.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Trump’s VP Nomination

by Dave

Oops- Prior post referred to Governor Erst, she is a senator from Iowa- see comment.

I predicted it would be Senator Joni Ernst.   This was based on what Trump needs.   He needs a black, Hispanic, Asian woman,  taking care of  adopted children who has been a senator or a governor.  And who will deliver all 7 to 10 swing states.  And has no baggage and likely is charismatic.  Conservative credentials are good, but not too extreme.   Trump needs the independent vote.

Chris Christie comes with way too much baggage.  Bridgegate revealed that Christie can be very pushy at times- not a quality Trump would wants.   Governor Susanna Martinez of New Mexico, scores high, but doesn’t want the job.  Marco Rubio has great appeal, but Trump beat him in Florida and called him all sorts of names.   He’s out.     Newt Gingrich is the ultimate in what Trump says he’s looking for- someone that knows congress and can get legislation passed.  But he’s 72 years old, and comes with baggage.  Sorry Newt.  Trump may pick a governor instead of some from congress, because they come with less baggage. So, it could go to Governor Martinez.

Senator Erst

Gov Martinez would have been a close second.  I personally thought Kelly Ayotte  would score high, being she is in a swing state (minor point, NH has only 4 electoral votes) and a strong counter to “over the hill” Hillary.

Stay tuned,

Dave

PS:  5/7/16 Senator Ayotte said she would support the Republican nominee, but would  not endorse Trump.   That’s it- off  the Donald’s short list, for sure.

 

Just so you know

by Dave

Man, I nailed it on May 4, 2016.  All but Joni Ernst- who is a senator not a governor.  I wrote “will pick”, when I meant “should pick.”    All the rest stays in place.  I am seldom wrong, and all mistakes are typos.   Further,  my convictions are made in America  iron clad.

——- Repost 5/4/2016 (Just so you know):

Here is what is going to happen:

  • Clinton will pick Senator  Tim Kaine as her VP candidate.
  • Trump will pick Gov.  Joni Ernst as his VP candidate.
  • Clinton will win the election.  It will be a close election.
  • Washington will be as dysfunctional as before- possibly worse.

Trump will push immigration/ security  and care for vets as his two central themes.   Thrown into the mix will be a hard line on drug use/ support for the police, and the fight against terrorism. Clinton will push her experience,  expanded education programs and helping the middle class.

Improving the economy will be a big one in Trump’s and Clinton’s campaign.  Trump will talk more about reducing government spending, since he can attack Hillary through Obama’s “reckless”  spending.

The conventions will be basically pageants-  3 days of non-stop promotion for each candidate.  Plus, well aimed zingers at the opposition candidate.  It will be well worth missing.  Or in my case, record and later delete.

Trump is the master of promotion- it is highly likely he will simultaneously appear in all 12 toss-up states, next to the governor of each state (if Republican), with all members of his family. just a few hours from the Republican pageant.   He will flood the news media, with lines such as, “You know what we just discovered about Hillary’s group of friends”,  and then go on to link her to conspiring with Ted Cruz’s father to kill JFK (just for example).

It will be old time Washington elite verses an outsider/ new blood.   Seems this worked for Barrack Obama and Jimmy Carter.

The wild card is the ongoing investigation in Clinton’s email. The FBI has not yet issued a final report.

The Republican states will predictably vote Trump and Democrat states will vote for Clinton.  All eyes will be on the 10-12 toss-up states of which, just like 2012.  Clinton needs to win some of the bigger toss-up states, like Florida and North Carolina  to win.

So, that’s it.  As the saying goes, I’m frequently wrong but never in doubt.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

Greatness and Goodness from the Donald

by Dave

“Most Americans are close to total ignorance about the world. They are ignorant. That is an unhealthy condition in a country in which foreign policy has to be endorsed by the people if it is to be pursued. And it makes it much more difficult for any president to pursue an intelligent policy that does justice to the complexity of the world.”

― Zbigniew Brzeziński

It also means that presidential candidates can run on slogans rather than substance:

Trump’s head-spinning and secret plans for foreign policy

To be honest, I did not listen to Trump’s speech.  I have pointed out in the past, how crazy it would be to punish China for currency manipulations, then to solicit their help in pressuring North Korea to give up their planned nuclear weapons program.

Stay tuned,

 

 

US Unemployment

by Dave

Donald Trump says we shouldn’t believe US unemployment rates  is 5%.  He says the unemployment rate is really  around 20%.  The average investor knows 20%  is very evident with massive foreclosures and businesses closing up. The stock market is destroyed by even 10% unemployment.

The highest level of unemployment in the last 67 years has been 10.8% during Reagan’s administration. Many economic events occurring during Nixon and Carter’s administrations, likely contributed to this high rate.  Oil prices tend to go down with unemployment.  In the last 4 months, oil prices have been slowly moving up even with an oversupply situation.

Trump is quoted as saying:

The official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good.”

Unemployment rates are determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They have been estimating unemployment on a monthly basis since 1948.  Now, with the internet, you can get all the BLS   monthly estimates from 1948:

Unemployment Rates

The unemployment estimates are done by career government employees with the objective of obtaining the best estimate of unemployment in the country.  A 5% unemployment rate sounds good, unless you live in a neighborhood where most of your neighbors are unemployed.  The 5% unemployment is a nationwide value,  and there are large variations depending on age and trade or educational skills.

There are other measures of  unemployment statistics calculated by the BLS.  The BLS has a budget of 618 million dollars and has 2,500 employees.

The BLS data are used by economists and financial analysts around the world. In  addition to the unemployment rate, they provide estimates of the Payroll Employment,  Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI),   Productivity,  US Import Index  and US Export Index.

Stay tuned,

Dave