The chance of a landslide election is slim in a presidential election. I define a landslide election as when the winner gets over 400 electoral votes. I got most of my information from the website shown below, which I think is terrific:
There has been no landslide elections since since 1988 with Bush beating Dukakis. Boy, did Dukakis get beat! But that was 28 years ago.
I’ll define a double landslide at more than 400 electoral votes, and 60% of the popular vote. Bush won in 1988 with just 53% of the popular vote- no double landslide. Reagan’s victory against Mondale in 1984 was close to a double landslide, with 59% of the popular vote. To get a real double landslide, you have to go back to 1972, when Nixon crushed McGovern with 520 electoral votes, and 61% of the votes.
I’ve just named three Republican presidents who crushed their opponents. Democrats have had their share of landslide elections. If I go back further in time, Roosevelt was overwhelmingly elected three times in a row.
For a landslide victory to occur, there has to be a large group of undecided voters which can be swayed by the candidate themselves instead of the party. I guess this just doesn’t happen anymore. The party platforms don’t change much either, so Republican voters have a pretty good idea of their candidate’s beliefs, and so do Democrats.
Texas will vote Republican. California and New York will go to Democrats. Deep South, from Georgia to Louisiana, is Republican. Midwest is solidly Republican. New England is solidly Democratic, with the exception of New Hampshire, a swing state.
So, the 2012 list of swing states still holds, and Florida remains the largest of the 8- 10 swing states.
Stay tuned,
Dave
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