Environment

Keystone XL and Nord Stream 2 Pipelines

by Dave

It’s deja vu all over again. Yogi Berra, I say this because these were election issues in the past 4 elections. It also was an attempt to steer the debate away from Harris, to criticize Biden’s decisions.

Nord Stream 2

The Harris-Trump debate consisted of some very old recycled falsehoods from Trump, more than 2 years old. Here it is:

“Why does Biden go in and kill the Keystone pipeline and approve the single biggest deal that Russia’s ever made, Nord Stream 2?” Trump said Tuesday night. Harris finally came back with the great one liner, “Well I am not Joe Biden, and I am certainly not Donald Trump.”

I call it the double whammy, because it calls for Harris to defend Biden’s supposed “approval” of Nord Stream 2. There was no approval, because it was Germany’s decision. For now, it isn’t even an issue. No gas is flowing from Russia to Germany. The pipelines were sabotaged in September 2022 and repair is unlikely because Germany will not allow the pipeline to go in service.

Nord Stream 2 is an underwater natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany, which was first planned in 2015. It is 767 miles long. Because the pipeline exports Russian gas to Germany, they must approve the project. The US can make it more difficult to construct the pipeline by sanctioning the companies involved in the construction. But approval or disapproval are not options.

Biden’s approval of Nord Stream 2 is a recycled lie. Trump’s February 2022 speech at the CPAP conference is just one long series of lies, exaggerations and deceptive statements. Of course this is a conservative Republican event that is very eager to embrace his false statements because they sound good. See link at bottom.

“It’s a good thing to get along with people not a bad thing. You can be very tough and get along. You know, I’m the one that ended [Putin’s] pipeline. He said, ‘You’re killing me with the pipeline.’ Nobody else ended his pipeline. Biden came in, he approved it.”

Sorry, This is a baseless lie. It only highlights Trump’s creativity in telling lies with Vladimir Putin, down on his knees to Trump, begging him to approve the pipeline. US sanctions may have slowed construction but they did not stop it. Per Wikipedia: “In December 2020 [while Trump was still President] , the Russian pipelaying ship Akademik Cherskiy continued pipe-laying… The laying of the second line was completed in September 2021.

In May 2021, Biden allowed soften the sanctions. At the time, Germany was very upset with the US sanctions against companies involved in the construction of the pipeline as they saw it as an interference in their foreign policy. Biden attempted to re-direct the sanctions more specifically at Russia’s economy as it became clear that the Nord Stream 2 project was going to be completed no matter what the US wanted.

Biden was looking for some leverage to negotiate with Putin. The real threat was a Russian invasion of Ukraine not Russian gas flowing to Germany. Biden was attempting to solidify European unity to counter Russia’s hostile and aggressive policies. The Ukrainian invasion occurred because of Putin’s underestimation of Ukraine’s willingness to fight, and the US and European support for an independent Ukraine.

Germany will not permit the pipeline be put in service as long as Russia occupies Ukraine. Germany never granted Russia a certification of completion for the Nord Stream pipeline.

Links:

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2

Fact Checking the CPAP Feb 2022 Speech

5 energy fact checks on Trump and Harris

XL Keystone Pipeline

The claim by Trump during the debate that Biden terminated the Keystone XL project is correct. He did so on his first day in office, based on environmental concerns. His agenda to rejoin the International Paris Accords and gain further cooperation for reduced CO2 emission would be inconsistent with supporting import of heavy oil from Canada. Per Wikipedia: “As of 2024, oilsands account for 8% of the total of Canadian emissions. Emissions from the oilsands continue to increase, while most other sources are decreasing.

The Keystone pipeline saga is a long one. There are multiple pipeline construction phases. The one that Biden cancelled was the fourth phase called the Keystone XL pipeline. The KXL pipeline would have shorten the route to Texas refineries. Trump tried to hasten the approval permitting process, but legal challenges in Montana succeeded in November 2018, with the judge ruling that the expediated approval violated the Administrative Procedure Act, the National Environmental Policy Act, and the Endangered Species Act.

It is true that the construction of the other phases of the Keystone project were easily approved during the Obama administration. The real issue was whether it was in the US interest to import the heavy crude (the nastiest oil, see NRDC link) which would have serious environmental and ecology impact.

Did Biden’s cancellation of the pipeline hurt the oilsands projects? Not really, as production from Canada’s oilsands continued to grow. There are still the longer route to bring Canadian oil to the US. Railcars can transport the heavy oil. And this is not good for climate change efforts. See links below.

The pipeline construction is 8% complete. TransCanada Corporation (now TC Energy, TRP stock symbol) disbanded efforts to continue the construction after Biden denied the export permit. The company is still doing well with a market cap of 42 billion dollars. The CBS article suggests that Canada production growth may flatten out in 2024, with competition from other sources.

Links:

CBS: Canada could lead the world in oil production growth in 2024

National Resource Defense Council: What Is the Keystone XL Pipeline? (NRDC supported lawsuits to end the Keystone XL pipeline.

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

(The long and controversial history of the Keystone XL pipeline stretches back to 2008 when Bush was president)

The German Experience transitioning to Green Energy

Immediately after the debate, Germany took exception to the following:

“You believe in things like, we’re not going to frack, we’re not going to take fossil fuel, we’re not going to do things that are going make this country strong, whether you like it or not,” Trump said Tuesday night, referring to Harris. “Germany tried that, and within one year, they were back to building normal energy plants.”

Their response: “Like it or not: Germany’s energy system is fully operational, with more than 50% renewables,” the ministry wrote. “And we are shutting down — not building — coal & nuclear plants. Coal will be off the grid by 2038 at the latest.”

Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/11/trump-germany-energy-fossil-fuels/

Harris stated that she supported fracking. The side comment on Germany was just thrown into the mix for effect. They also watch our debate.

Opening up and closing other potential areas for drilling by Biden

Energy policy will continue to be controversial and poorly understood by the electorate, regardless of who wins the 2024 election. Biden surprised climate activists when he approved the massive Willow project (massive in terms of investment required) in the petroleum reserve.

Link: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/12/climate/biden-willow-arctic-drilling-restrictions.html

The 2021 ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) lease sale by Trump, after he lost the election in 2020, was a total disaster. The potential of ANWR is poorly defined, as no wells have been drilled inside the refuge. Chevron drilled an exploratory well just outside of the refuge in 1985. Results have never been disclosed.

Per Wikipedia:

Two small independent companies, Knik Arm Services LLC and Regenerate Alaska Inc, won one tract each. The auction generated $14.4 million, lower than the $1.8 billion estimate from the Congressional Budget Office in 2019, and the auction did not receive bids from any oil and gas companies.[53]

On June 1, 2021, Secretary of Interior Deb Haaland suspended all Trump-era oil and gas leases in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge pending a review of how fossil fuel drilling would impact the remote landscape.[10] Indigenous and conservation groups urged Biden to make the suspension permanent. On September 6 2023, the Biden administration cancelled the leases.

The same article notes that Goldman Sachs and other investment banks stated they would not finance investments in ANWR. On September 6, 2023, the Biden administration cancelled the leases.

I doubt that the lease holders really lost because without a major oil company taking over the lease, there would be no exploratory drilling.

Summary

I have corrected the misrepresentations by Trump at the debate concerning the two pipelines, neither of which are operational. So, this is a matter of old and bitter political fights. Canada will produce their heavy oil to the chagrin of climate activists.

The supply of oil is likely to increase from new discoveries offshore Guyana, and from developments in Brazil, US (offshore developments plus fracking) and Canada. Gas prices could definitely go down, as supplies increase.

Our energy policy is too short term focused. Going forward in the long run, will mean transitioning from our dependence on fossil fuels, to renewable fuels, which includes solar and wind energy. We can’t keep building roads, and adding gasoline burning cars. Collaborating with other countries, like China and India, I hope, can lead to cutting global carbon emissions. Global problems require global solutions.

I don’t think there is any hope of a Trump administration addressing these future challenges. The hubris that comes from the MAGA folks, is competitive, and ignores the climate impact.

I am much more hopeful that a Kamala Harris would make real progress in green energy and more efficient use of our resources, for the long term future.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Prior comments on Nord Stream 2:

https://newsandviews.net/?s=Nord%20Stream%202

RFK, Jr. – Can you do the hustle?

by Dave

Some things you just can’t make up! I wrote about RFJ, Jr. in 2023:

Robert Kennedy, Jr.

Everything I said then, is even more true. He is intelligent and intense, but somehow his brain got locked into giant conspiracy theories, mixed in with an attack on all vaccines. But, he fell into the deep sink hole of connecting dots that really don’t exist.

He should be with other climate activists, promoting a more green planet and working for our transition to renewable fuels. You won’t see RFK, Jr. at any Earth Day celebrations.

https://www.rescue.org/uk/article/12-climate-activists-inspiring-us-fight-climate-change

He’s busy podcasting deep state conspiracies. Here is an excerpt from his 2020 book. “The deep state is real… The real power behind the curtain is a conglomeration of corporations, coal, oil, chemical, steel, and pharmaceutical – recently joined by telecom, Big Tech/ Big Data.”

Wow. The “Big Everything Conspiracy.” Seem to work for Trump, who wants everyone to believe that the Biden administration can manipulate the FBI and Justice Department, and our entire legal system, including municipal and State district attorneys grand juries and trial juries, to indict him on election interference, illegal possession of classified documents, hush money payments and defamation.

RFK, Jr. can talk all he wants about how government caters to the corporate elites as long as it is confined to the Democrats. He can do the Steve Bannon hustle all he wants. Just keep repeating “Biden-Harris” as the culprits. Never the Republicans.
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Of course, Trump and the Republican Party is and has been in his prior term very supportive of the coal and oil industry. Trump’s cabinet was a gift to the fossil fuels industry. And of course, the cabinet couldn’t care less about carbon emissions, and tried to downplay the effects, like increased forest fires in California.

Trump’s first Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, had been the CEO of Exxon-Mobil for 10 years. Trump’s first Secretary of Energy was Rick Perry, who had been Governor of Texas for 15 years, who supported the US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Change Accords.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry (per the NY Times)

Energy secretary, Mr. Perry oversaw a sharp increase in the production of fossil fuels, particularly liquefied natural gas, and promoted it with a patriotic fervor — even dubbing the fossil fuel “freedom gas” and likening its export to Europe to the United States efforts to liberate the continent during World War II.

“The United States is again delivering a form of freedom to the European continent,” Mr. Perry told reporters in Brussels in May, according to Euractiv.com. “And rather than in the form of young American soldiers,” Mr. Perry said, “it’s in the form of liquefied natural gas.”

Rick Perry became entangled in the Ukraine scandal, and many feel this was the reason for his early departure from the Trump administration.

Ryan Zinke, Trump’s Secretary of Interior, is usually a champion of protected our national parks. Zinke went just opposite way, and wanted to shrink the size of some of the mid-western parks. Per Wikipedia,

In August 2018, Zinke said that “environmental terrorist groups” were to blame for the wildfires in California, and that they had “nothing to do with climate change”. Fire scientists and forestry experts rejected that claim, attributing the increasingly destructive wildfires to heat and drought caused by climate change.[134] Later that month, Zinke walked back some of his earlier remarks, acknowledging that climate change played a part in the fires.[135] He also said that preventing removal of dead trees has increased the amount of flammable material and hurt timber salvaging.[136]

Worse of all, came from the Environmental Protection Agency, under the leadership (attack dog) of Scott Pruitt, who was able to rolled back as many of the environmental programs as possible, including regulations designed to keep pesticides out of our drinking waters, in the name of cutting bureaucratic red tape and saving taxpayer money. The Biden administration restored many of these programs.

See NY Times article: The Trump Administration Rolled Back More Than 100 Environmental Rules. Here’s the Full List.

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RFK Jr. had his chance to work with climate change activists years ago. He latched onto the anti-vaxxers and their misinformation campaign, through the Children’s Health Defense organization.

Wikipedia states: Children’s Health Defense (CHD) is an American 501(c)(3) nonprofit activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine disinformation, and which has been called one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.

Children’s Health Defense

CHD is on track to sue more media organizations than Trump including Facebook, BBC, AP and Reuters for censorship of their views. Like Trump’s lawsuits, when they lose the case, they appeal the decision.

It is all part of the political hustle. I really feel badly for parents who bought into all RFK Jr. rhetoric and have not vaccinated their children. Right now, the parents in the embattled Gaza strip are begging for polio vaccines for their children. The polio virus is a monster, but the vaccine works.

Part of Harris’ campaign is “We are not going back!” She’s right.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Human health v Politics

by Dave

Trump’s EPA was frighteningly bad from top to bottom. EPA Administrators Scott Pruitt and Andrew Wheeler sought to weaken the agency, as they had done their entire careers in support of the fossil fuels industries. As administrators, they put lawyers who had battled against regulations in charge of departments.

The really bad chemicals sometimes avoid scrutiny because their presence are found in very select locations, and the affect on human life is subtle at first, and takes years to cause harm. Perfect case is the burial of chemicals containing highly volatile chemicals including benzene and dioxin in Love Canal, New York, by Occidental Petroleum in the 1950’s did not become recognized as an enormous health hazard, until 1977.

Ethylene oxide (EtO) is a chemical used to sterilize equipment in the health and agricultural industries. In medical applications, it is used in place of steam for instruments sensitive to moisture. In the agricultural industry, it can be used as a fumigant.

The EPA website states the following:

“Studies show that breathing air containing elevated ethylene oxide levels over many years increases the risk of some types of cancers, including cancers of the white blood cells (such as non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma and lymphocytic leukemia); and breast cancer in females.”

If you think this is bad, it gets worse. From the EPA website, on the effects on children, “EtO is mutagenic (i.e., it can change the DNA in a cell). Children may be more susceptible to the harmful effects of mutagenic substances.” Translation, children may be more at risk of the various types of cancer. There is nothing more sad than this.

Deputy director Andrew Wheeler ran the EPA beginning in July 2018 after Scott Pruitt quit amid 14 investigations of misconduct in 2018. It was Scott Pruitt who appointed Bill Wehrum, to be in charge of air quality. Like Pruitt, he was forced to resign after 19 months for ethic violations. There was nothing in Wehrum’s history, to indicate he would defend and enforce air quality regulations. Prior to his role at the EPA, he was a partner and the head of the administrative law group at Hunton & Williams, where he lobbied on behalf on major industrial companies and advocated for looser environmental regulations. See his bio from Wikipedia.

Willowbrook near Lake Michigan, Illinois is a nice sounding name. One can picture weeping willows along side of a brook, perfect for family outings. But this is the location of one of the Sterigenics facilities, and over time, their emissions of ethylene oxides and other chemicals were polluting the air, and increasing the risk of cancer and lymphomas.

Health issues are personal, as reported by CBS news in February 2019 (see link below):

“Matt Haller, 45, lived about a mile from the Sterigenics facility in Willowbrook and now has stage-four stomach cancer. The married father of a four-year old has lost 75 pounds, as the cancer ravaged his body. He was healthy and active, and enjoyed playing hockey. He loved his career at ESPN in sales. “I had a future that had success written on it, and now I have no future,” he told CBS 2.

All this sounds familiar and very sad. For decades, the residents of Love Canal were in the dark about the toxic gases seeping from their backyards. The land on which an elementary school was built, also had the slow release of toxic gases. A snow blizzard hit in Buffalo, New York and Grand Island, NY in the winter of 1977. I know, I was working on Grand Island at the time. As the snow melted, the groundwater levels rose, and residents could smell the gases. This was the formative period of the EPA. Just six years earlier, EPA administrator, William Ruckelshaus announced national standards for six common pollutants, as mandated by the Clean Air Act, signed into law by President Nixon.

Back to ethylene oxide. The Inspector General’s report issued last week states the following:

“Region 5 personnel orally communicated to one state agency and one local agency that OAR headquarters directed Region 5 to not inspect ethylene oxide facilities unless invited by a state.”

OAR headquarters is the Office of Air and Radiation, which was the responsibility of Bill Wehrum. He is not specifically named in the report.

So, the IG report makes it clear that the EPA is not carrying out its mission, at least in terms of protecting the health of residents in Michigan.

It is politics. The EPA ordered a webpage removed, which identified the elevated cancer risks in the Lake Michigan area. Bad news could hurt the incumbent president re-election campaign.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Wikipedia: William Wehrum

Chicago CBS Local News, February 2019, Sterigenics Allegedly Covered Up Toxic Emissions, Operated Secret Plants, Former Workers Say

Chicago Tribune report, April 16, 2021: Trump appointees blocked EPA from investigating ethylene oxide polluters and prevented staff from warning Americans about the cancer-causing gas, [Inspector General] report says

Inspector General’s ReportDownload

Top EPA official resigns amid scrutiny over possible ethics violations

The only choice for the environment: Joe Biden for President

by Dave

Hurricane Zeta is on it’s way to New Orleans. Need any more convincing?

Climate change does not cause hurricanes. It is a factor in making hurricanes more frequent and wetter, because the warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico allow the tropical storms to linger longer in place and intensify. A Level 1 hurricane can more easily become a Level 5 one. I’ve seen what a Level 5 does, it crushes entire communities.

Climate change alters the climate patterns, and this results in unpredictable extreme weather events, including drought, floods, and severe winter storms. The forest fires in California, Brazil amazon rain forest and Patagonia, Siberia and along the artic circle, and in Australia’s Northeast are a product of global warming.

The good scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency have either been muzzled, left or been demoted. The head of the EPA, Andrew Wheeler, was a lobbyist for the coal industry. Words like global warming are no longer spoken within the halls of the EPA.

“Donald Trump is the worst present ever for the climate, our health and our safety. He views the power of the presidency not as a change for good, but as a weapon to damage the nation while enriching himself and his cronies,” said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brun.

This is real. The photos are from Northern California, where members of my family live. Fire rage in the San Gabriel mountains, close to where my brother lives. That makes this race pretty personal.

Sierra Club: Fall 2020

The Sierra Club is proud to be endorsing Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential election. Biden has laid out a bold vision of safeguarding our air and water, transitioning to a clean energy economy, and investing in communities that for too long have been left behind to deal with pollution caused by our reliance on fossil fuels. Vice President Joe Biden’s selection of Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate made this ticket the strongest ever for proposed climate action. The Biden-Harris partnership will prioritize climate – and climate justice – in their administration while restoring the United States as the a global leader in tackling the crisis.

Make your voices known. Vote now.

Dave

Biden is the Best for Global Problems – Part 2

by Dave

Climate Change

From “A planet in peril”, New York Times, Editorial Board, Oct 18, 2020.

For anyone who cares about the health of the planet, the Trump years have been, to say the least, profoundly discouraging. Barely two months in office, President Trump order his cabinet to review and remove any regulatory obstacles to the production of oil, gas and coal; shortly thereafter, he renounced America’s support for the landmark Paris climate agreement, thus shedding any claim to American leadership on a global crisis.

It was more or less downhill from there. He methodically decapitated Obama-era rules aimed at limiting emissions from power plants and oil and gas operations and mandating increases in fuel efficiency. He also opened public land hitherto shielded from mining and drilling exploration.

There were other assaults large and small on environmental protections, but the most damaging were those that undermined rules to diminish greenhouse gases while enabling the industries that produced them. All this despite the climate-related carnage in front of his own eyes, conspicuously the fires in California – and despite authoritative studies warning that failure to wrench emissions drastically downward over the next decade will bring irreversible damage.

Emissions in America, pre-Covid-19 declined slightly thanks partly to the switch to cleaner fuels and the determined efforts of states and cities to do the job Mr. Trump won’t do. Globally, however emissions have been rising and the seas with them.

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So absolutely well stated. Climate change is a significant factor in recent extreme weather events includes both prolong drought and hurricanes/ monsoons. This year we went through the entire list of 24 named hurricanes and now Hurricane Delta is destroying the western areas of Louisiana and Texas. The forest fires and devastating ecological damage is occurring now in the Brazilian amazon rain forest, the incredible unique wetlands to the south (Pantanal), Australia, and all along the artic circle in Siberia, Greenland, and Alaska.

Yes, our air is clean, because the carbon pollutants go to the upper atmosphere and cause trapping of solar rays. Our planet is overheating like one big greenhouse.

Obama understood the severity of the problem and so does Joe Biden. They will put qualified people who have the interest at heart. We need global solutions, and this means action from China, Russia, India and Brazil.

Donald Trump puts fossil fuel lobbyists in charge of the Environmental Protection Agency. Yes, our air is clean, because the carbon pollutants go to the upper atmosphere and cause trapping of solar rays. Our planet is overheating like one big greenhouse.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Florida – Vote for Biden

by Dave

I fear time is running out for this simple message. I live in Florida. Unlike most states, the sea water really surrounds us, so we have our choice of beaches. I guess I could include Hawaii another incredibly beautiful state. It is something very precious.

We share something else with the gulf coast states – hurricanes. Not just in frequency, but also in their ability to destroy homes. Scientists will tell you that climate change does not cause hurricanes, because a lot of factors influence the development of hurricanes. What climate change does, with the warming of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters, is allow tropical storms and hurricanes to intensify. So, with climate change, a tropical storm can go to a Category 1 hurricane or from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5. The Category 5 hurricanes are extremely destructive and deadly.

The immense forest fires recently in California are the result of many environmental conditions, and I would never blame a forest fire exclusively on climate change. The ignition of the fire can come from multiple sources, including lightening strikes and human activities. The buildup of dry material can also be blamed the difficulty of conducting periodic control burns. However, the inescapable reality is that climate change increases the size of the fire, to the extent where it is incredibly difficult to control. Climate change means a longer dry periods in the western states where the fires can start.

Pulling out of Paris Climate Accords was one of the worse mistakes made by Trump. He said it was grossly unfair to the US and many developed countries, as we would have to bear more of the burden of reducing our carbon emission. In 2016, he said once we left, everyone else would wake up to see what a mistake the US had made, and the European countries would join us in leaving.

It was true Trump, this great deal maker, to sell the public, that he could make America great, by telling everyone how clean our air is, and we have no problem. Yet, as I write, there’s talk about Hurricane Delta coming. Hurricane Delta is right, as this year, we’ve had all 24 named hurricanes and now are going through the Greek alphabet with alpha, beta, gamma, delta.

It is exactly what the scientists predicted – more extreme weather events. Why are there extensive fires in the Amazon? Why in Australia? Why in the artic regions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia?

Climate change is a global problem, solved by working together with all nations. It isn’t going to be solved easily – our carbon emissions are very high and our dependence on fossil fuels very strong. Biden is the right person to lead this country through a transition to less reliance of fossil fuels and more international cooperation in the developing countries – such as Brazil, India, China and Russia.

Vote Biden for Florida, California, the US and the rest of the world. Our house, where we live, is in trouble and it will only get worse under Trump.

A greener planet is possible but we need new leadership now.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Upcoming Election

by Dave

An incumbent president, usually runs on his achievements during the prior  three plus years.  But, much of what Donald Trump has claimed to have accomplished is not true.  From environmental issues, energy,  the economy and immigration, Trump has claimed credit for accomplishments during the Obama administration.  Trump also falsely portrayed much of his own administration’s efforts as successes, when in fact they were not.

The 20,000 lies that Trump has told over the last 3 1/2 years are quite incredible.  His version of a stupendous economic recovery in 2018-2019 is total nonsense.   The economy was not in collapse at the end of Obama’s term.  It definitely had crashed during George Bush’s last year, losing 800,000 jobs a month and it was President Obama had turned it around, adding about 200,000 jobs a month.  In fact, when Trump cites statistics on how well his administration has done, he typically goes back in time, to the date of his election (November 8, 2016) and not his inauguration date in 2017  just to steal some credit from President Obama.

In the upcoming blogs,  I intend to examine more closely the “three E’s”  – the environment, energy and the economy, plus I intend to  address immigration policy and the “build the wall” craze (it should be called enhance the “see-through fence” initiative).   Trump could brag all he wanted as a real estate developer.  Now he is getting caught every single day, in multiple lies.

Immigration policy is a real pile of crazy sh*t,  Sorry, I just didn’t know how to express this any better.  For months Trump kept bragging how great his policies were,  because apprehensions at the southern border were going down, 40%,  then 61% and finally 78%.   So, immigrants were not trying to sneak into our country, because they were afraid of being caught.  Of course, apprehensions started to rise,  and Trump again bragged that his policies were a tremendous success because they were going up.   Down is great, up is great, who cares, it’s all in the presentation?    In January 2020, the President celebrates great numbers on immigration again, this time apprehensions again were going down.   So, down, up and down again, all with dubious statistics, and all causes to celebrate the tremendous success.

I believe it is necessary to dispel the barrage of  false claims in order to establish the truth.   There is an enormous distribution system of false information.  Energy, environment and the economy issues are all intertwined.    The  “fake news” is often slick presentations, with selected facts helped along by industry lobbyist  groups.  Just one small example –  I saw on a cable news program, a clip showing barges filled with coal going down the Mississippi river,  and the newscaster was talking about how US coal exports had doubled since 2016, which is true.  Yet, in about 2 minutes, I could verify that US coal production had continued it’s steady decline during the Trump administration.  This rise in exports was simply that more coal was being sent overseas,  because the demand was dropping in the US.    Major coal companies filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and 2020, including Cloud Peak Energy and  Murray Coal.

So, I am preparing my first blog on the environment and more will follow.  I am always receptive to comments from my visitors, contrary to my opinions.  As usual, I will support my statements with links from the internet.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump + Trade

by Dave

I just thought the link below really said everything.  Trade is one area which Trump has nearly complete control.  Except every time he slaps on a tariff against a country, they retaliate with tariffs on the US.   It is a “lose-lose” policy as the tariffs are passed through to the consumer.    Nothing positive ever seems to emerge from Trump’s actions.  He has threaten Brazil and Argentina with tariffs, because their currencies are weak. A lot of this is not particularly rational.

Trump was handed a reasonable and rational approach to China’s violation of trade agreements.  It was called the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement.    But, it unified  our Asian, Canadian  and South American  trading partners to  force compliance of fair trade with China.   But it was long and complex,  It was also negotiated by President Obama.   So, the US withdrew from the agreement.

Withdrawing from international agreements, and going it alone, may look like it’s putting US interest first.  Actually, it puts us last.    We’ve lost our leadership role in the UN, NATO and the Paris Accords on Climate Change.  Because Trump wants all the glory, all he can do is eliminate regulations and agreements.   And disrupt free trade with tariffs.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Link

Trade is the one area Trump has complete control

 

 

Impeachment Update + Climate Change Meeting + Say good-bye Rick

by Dave

Thought I would add two quick items:

I continue to add links to the impeachment inquiry page as shown on the right side of this web site.  I particularly like the CNN Inquiry tracker.   There are currently 30 requests for testimony or documents and 24 subpoenas.  The joint committee, meeting behind closed doors, has heard from 16 witnesses, so the hearings in this phase, are far from being done.    I figure with 16 down and 54 to go, this marks the 30% done level.  Of course,  the requests and subpoenas could outpace the testimonies, so this % done statistic could go down.

Imagine inviting 20,000 of your friends over for Thanksgiving and given only a few weeks to prepare.  What Madrid did, in hosting the COP25 Meeting is pretty incredible.  It will be a conference filled with intense negotiations, as reducing carbon emissions calls for sacrifice, and each country has to do their share for the greater good of the planet.  Good words with no action are not helpful.    Unfortunately, the US and Brazil look to be the only two countries who see this  terrible crisis as an inconvenience to their nationalistic political agenda.  Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, seems to believe that Brazil is somehow not connected to the rest of the planet.  Yes, our house is on fire, in California and the Amazon.   Trump will become a permanent resident in Palm Beach, Florida, and may begin to take a real interest in rising sea levels.

Our Secretary of Energy Rick Perry will be leaving soon, stonewalling the House for documents and testimony related to the Trump-Ukraine scandal and really embracing the “Bob Murray” energy plan to push coal and do whatever is possible to discourage renewable energy sources.   Solar panels made in China got hit with 55% tariffs and inverters, I believe, are now taxed at 25%,.

Murray Coal got everything on their agenda list they sent to Mike Pence, (except his welfare plan for nuclear and coal)  which included rolling back of all initiatives taken during Obama’s administration, yet the Murray Coal still went bankrupt.    I hope I will never see again in my lifetime the owner of a coal company have so much sway over the Department of Energy and the EPA.   Money doesn’t talk, it swears (Bob Dylan).

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Madrid to host Cop25 climate talks in December after Chile withdraws

Weaker alone and it’s getting worse (China, Iran, Climate Change) + Over the top distractions

by Dave

Trump has started a number of highly disruptive “wars” without a clear end in sight.  The two big ones is his economic war with China and the political war with Iran.   A third huge division among us and our allies is our recent action against international cooperation in climate change.  Our Department of Justice is currently waging war against our automobile manufacturers who are working with California to improve exhaust emissions standards.  I guess the idea is that we all must breathe the same polluted air.   I’ll leave this last one for separate blog.

— Trade War – No end in sight.

The trade war with China, just seems to get worse every month.  According to experts, China has engaged in unfair trade practices.  But, the current trade wars are just the US and China.  We failed to obtain international support.  We created the World Trade Organization to address issues such as unfair trade practices and currency manipulation.  Now we take action without their involvement.  Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) which included 12 countries (China not one of them) and would have been the best counter measure against China’s unfair practices.  Trump has correctly stated that prominent Republicans and Democrats were against it.   Likely, if Clinton were elected president, then she would have attempted to make  changes in the agreement.

The TPP agreement is long and complex.  It has survived without the US in a new agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP).   The US was insisting on certain provisions which would be best for the US. and none of the other countries before we signed it.  See links below.  When Trump pulled out, all the contested provisions were pulled out.  It includes however, what seems at the top of Trump’s wish list – respect for intellectual property as follows:

It [CPTTP] includes the most detailed standards for intellectual property of any trade agreement, as well as protections against intellectual property theft against corporations operating abroad.

Manufacturing as measured by the US ISM manufacturing employment index, last month hit a two year low of  47.4 in August 2019, down from a high of 60.17 on September 2017.  See link.

Trade wars are a lose-lose proposition.   There are 18 countries which are party to the CPTPP agreement including Japan, Mexico, Australia, Singapore and Canada.  They are stronger together, and the US is now weaker as it stands alone.

—  IRAN

Now Iran.  As long as the sanctions were lifted, Iran obeyed by its commitments.  They had a strict monitoring program.  The agreement basically called for the US to lift sanctions as long as Iran was in compliance.  When Trump imposed economic sanctions by refusing to import oil from Iran, it put the US in violation of the agreement.  Further, the US was pressuring other countries and companies not to lift Iran’s oil.

Thus, Iran correctly stated that they had the right not to be bound by the terms of the agreement, primarily on the amount of uranium it could enrich.   None of our European allies want Iran to get nuclear weapons, so they are pleading with the US, to drop the sanctions, so Iran can be brought back into compliance.  President Macron is leading this effort.  The head of the UN atomic energy watchdog agency (IAEA)  is in Iran now,   Iran makes no secret of its violations of the treaty and in fact will comply with thorough IAEA inspections,   It is simply tit-for-tat against actions taken by the US.

Trump’s theory, that once Iran felt the pain of sanctions, it would do anything to please the US hasn’t worked at all.  In fact, it has been a terrible failure.   Treaties are tough to put together, but much easier to fall apart.

I’ll stop here.  I’ve got a lot more to say on Trump’s misguided policies on reducing our carbon emissions and minimizing the real threat it is creating throughout the world, including droughts and extreme weather events.  But that will be a separate blog.

— DISTRACTIONS

I have to contend with a huge number of distracting events in July and August.  It’s really nuts.  Vice President Mike Pence wants an American on Mars by 2024, about 6 years earlier than planned, price tag around 500 billion dollars (a trillion here and there eventually adds up to real money) plus the militarizing of space with the Star Wars themed “Space Force.”   Then the trip to Ireland, was a publicist nightmare.  His grandfather was Irish, but he fled Ireland as a refugee escaping violence and poverty, just the folks Trump is trying to ban from the US.  Plus,  it was a terrible snub to stay at the Trump hotel, far outside of Dublin, for “security reasons.”  Nobody bought this one.   See link.

What else:  Trying somehow link Bill Clinton and Jeff Epstein by repeating social media nonsense,  buying Greenland and insulting Denmark (whose next?), the Trump drawn hurricane maps to include Alabama, pulling funds for Puerto Rico hurricane rebuilding effort to build the Mexican border wall (seeing just how far the National Emergency Act can be stretched), and a barrage of tweet attacks against Jay Powell for basing his decisions on interest rates on economic data and Fed Reserve objectives, rather than Trump’s polling numbers.  Remember, Jay Powell was Trump’s nominee to the Fed and highly qualified for this position by both Democrats and Republicans.

I’m not sure if any of the above means much. Our policies on Iran, China and Climate Change are real issues where an immediate course correction is necessary.  More like 180 degree turn, as we are “stronger together.” This will have to wait until the 2020 elections.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Manufacturing Unemployment index is down

Wikipedia: Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP)

Atomic watchdog chief in Iran for high-level talks

The distractions:

Mars Confusion 

Pence’s disasterous trip abroad

The Irish love anyone who can drink beer and has a bit of Irish heritage.  I believe they’ll make an exception with VP Mike Pence.

Irish Times Review of Mike Pence’s visit

 

 

 

 

 

War of Words

by Dave

“I’m not going to enter a war of words with anybody, including the American president,” Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, told a Danish television channel on Wednesday.  Ok, that’s right.  Don’t back down and don’t escalate,

A few days ago, I was already to post a slightly humorous comment on Greenland, saying the Prime Minister should have told Trump, “Well, if you want Greenland, then give us Puerto Rico. ”  That was going to be my joke.  Then, it came out that the White House actually discussed swapping Puerto Rico for Greenland.   That’s super crazy.

Buying Greenland was a crazy distraction.  The Prime Minister of Denmark,  Mette Frederiksen, was absolutely right to call the idea “absurd.”   Even more absurd is the cavalier way Trump proposed this.   Trump was right that this had been considered during Truman’s presidency in 1946.   But, this was done under tight security, and no one knew about it for 45 years, when it was discovered by a Copenhagen newspaper in declassified documents in the National Archives.

Today, we have a military base (Thule air base) on Greenland.   Denmark has been a strong ally of the US.  Danes have fought with the US in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan.    However, unlike Trump,  the Prime Minister is a strong environmentalist, and Denmark is making great strides in reducing carbon emissions.  It would be hard not to be a strong believer in climate change, as it is so evident in Europe and of course, in Greenland.

So, Trump hopped into Air Force 1, to attend the G7 meeting in beautiful Biarritz, France where the hot issues will be Iran, trade issues and climate change.

On climate change,  President Bolsonaro  of Brazil in making his country  great again, has done great harm to the Amazon.  I warned this was going to happen.   The people who voted for him are now choking on smoke in Sao Paulo.    Donald Trump intensified the Trade War, not only with China but with our European allies.  EU is trying desperately to save the Iran Nuclear agreement, after the US pulled out.

So, the G7 meeting will be a “war of words”  with the US now more as  the trouble maker than the problem solver.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/08/16/trump-greenland-purchase-harry-truman-denmark/

Representative Iihan Omar

by Dave

I like her, but she would really do herself and the causes she supports, to resist getting into the limelight, at least for now.   What did she say that was so horrible?

It was that our support for Israel is “all about the Benjamins,” which is slang for 100 dollar bills namely money.   Of course, money and politics go hand-in-hand.   Trump wants good relations with the Saudis, in hopes of getting big military contracts.  Not for the US government, but for companies like Boeing and dozens of military equipment manufacturers.    I think the Vox website got it right:

” It was false — support for Israel is complex and related to many more factors than just lobbyist money — and it played into centuries of conspiracy theories about Jewish money corrupting Western politics.”

Her four words went viral and totally blown out of proportion.  There was another comment where she seem to give support of a dual loyalty theory, that implies Jewish politicians were conflicted between what was best for America and best for Israel.  She really has back tracked on her offensive comment.  However, Trump is really on the war path.  Again, it is not her statements per se, but the exaggerated impact which is  being tossed about the social media.  Social media can act as a distorted echo chamber.

I worked in Kuwait, and listen to some pretty anti-Israel comments.  It was, in my opinion, rooted on a biased history of how Israel was formed, and its intentions to its Arab leaders.  We had some lively debates at that time.  At the same time, Muslims and Jews were just fine working together.  It was never personal.

The US under the Trump administration will never present a practical plan to resolve the hostilities between Palestine and Israel, because it will simply agree with Israel.   We have given up our role as a neutral party, and gone way too far in aligning our interests with Israel.  That’s very bad for us.   For Arab extremists,  the anger and paranoia begins with hatred towards Israel, and then all countries associated with Israel, most obvious today is the US.

As I said in the beginning, I like Representative Omar.   I think she has a lot of “John Kennedy” type zeal in her and is strongly involved in the really big issues facing the world – such as hunger, environment  and climate change.  Getting it right on access to health care services and education for our country are critical to make this country great again (after Trump).

I hope she can weather this storm.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/2/12/18220241/ilhan-omars-twitter-tweet-anti-semitism

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_All_About_the_Benjamins

(I honestly didn’t know how popular this slang expression was, and I thought they were talking about Benjamin Netayahu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilhan_Omar

 

 

 

Brumadinho Dam Collapse

by Dave

Mariana denovo! Meu Deus!  In Portuguese, this means “Mariana again, my God.”

This is in reference to the dam that collapsed in Mariana, Minas Gerais, Brazil   in November 2015,  killing 19 people, spilling 60 million cubic meters of toxic mud  and completely destroying the town of Bento Rodrigues.     There were warning signs before the collapse.   The company had hired experts, who identified problems with the dam.  But the operation company Samarco, a consortium between Vale and BHP,  did too little, too late.   The investigation of the Mariana dam collapse lead to criminal charges, fines and lawsuits.   The environmental damage stretch all the way to the mouth of the Rio Doce river, to the Atlantic Ocean.  Toxic elements found in the tailings include mercury, arsenic and lead.  See link below.

The criminal charges and lawsuits provided Value strong motivation to insure their dams were safe.   But there’s an lot about Vales’s  Brumadinho dam collapse that seems similar to Mariana.  On January 25, 2019 an earthen dam,holding back 11.7 million cubic feet of tailings  from an iron ore mine  broke and  immediately created a huge mud flow for two miles.  From video shot at the time, it was a catastrophic failure with a breach in the lower sections of the dam, leading to a total caving in of the upper sections of the dam.  Heavy rainfall is likely a contributing factor.

As of Feb 23, 177 people are confirmed dead and 133 people are considered missing.  (see Wikipedia link) Many of the victims were Vale’s employees.  The force of the flood was tremendous, overturning buses, destroying homes and hotels, and drowning their occupants.  A section of a bridge collapsed.  The mud swept over approximately a square mile of land.  It definitely could have been worse.   The mud flow veered east of the village of Vale de Cachoreira (valley of the water fall),  taking some lives but sparing others.   An alarm system failed to go off.  Vale stated this failure was unimportant, as most of the destruction occurred in a matter of seconds.

As with the Mariana disaster,  there were warning signs.   Right now, all eyes are focused on a German firm TUV SUD who performed the last safety inspection in September 2018.   There is evidence that they were reluctant to sign off on the certificate of safety,  but management in Vale pressured them.    There is a serious conflict of interest in these inspections, as Vale hires the outside firm, and pays them for the inspection.   Obviously, more direct involvement is needed from the government.   The shut down of a tailing pit, I would think, could shut down operations at a mine, so there will always be some resistance.  But two accidents of this magnitude ought to be sufficient incentives for change.

The environmental impact is still being assessed.   High mercury concentrations were found in the river below the spill after the collapse.   Metal contaminants do not decompose with time.   The will become more dilute as they flow downstream.  Unfortunately toxic elements can be concentrated in fish and other animals,  leading to real health risks.

Earth dam collapses due to mining operations have occurred in many countries, including the US, India, Italy and Japan.   The precipitating event is often heavy rainfall, but preceding this, are typically structural defects.   In the case of Brumadinho, the rain lead to a process called “liquidification” where solids in the tailings became mobile.   Clogged dam outlets may have contributed to the Brumadinho disasterer. With sifting weather patterns due to global warming,  the historical rainfall patterns may become less predictable, requiring extra measures to insure safety in all tailings pits.   Brazil has many tailing pits in worse condition than Brumadinho.   This latest disaster should be considered a wake up call to Brazil (as if Mariana wasn’t enough!).

The US has its own share of disasters.  In year 2000,  in Marin County, Kentucky,  a coal mining tailing pit failed. According to Wikipedia,  “The water supply for over 27,000 residents was contaminated. The spill was 30 times larger than the Exxon Valdez oil spill and one of the worst environmental disasters ever in the southeastern United States.”     Beyond permitting requirements, a vigilant monitoring and safety inspections, free of conflict of interest with mining operators seem essential.   Remember the saying, “What comes around, goes around.”   The next Mariana, or Brumadinho type disaster  might be in West Virginia, Michigan or Kentucky.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Mariana Dam Collapse

Wikipedia,  Brumadinho Dam Collapse

Wikipedia:  Dam failures 

Other similar dam disasters:

Global Warming

by Dave

Scientists like to refer this as “climate change” but whatever it is called, it is real, it is worldwide and the consequences of ignoring it or belittling it, are very serious.

I was blown away when I saw this graph on the front page of the New York Times, on February 7, 2019.  I mean the front page of the New York Times is precious territory,  but the editors decided to put this graph at the top left corner, because it tells a very compelling story.   It is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Agency (NOAA) showing the 2018 global temperature is right on trend beginning around 1970.   Look at the last five points, 2014 to 2018, the temperatures are above all others on the chart,  meaning the last 5 years were the hottest ever on our planet.

This temperature increase coincides with increases in worldwide carbon emissions.   It is  distinctly different from the 1880 to 1930’s, random ups and downs.  Global warming is a factor in extreme weather events including the blistering cold snap in the Midwest, the extreme heat wave in Australia, hurricanes in Puerto Rico, Florida, and the gulf coast states,  prolong dry conditions in California promoting forest fires and expansion of deserts causing famine in Africa.

It is real,  It is bad,  And we lack leadership at the highest levels of our government.  Trump will pull out of Paris Accords, and did not say one word about climate change in the State of the Union address.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again.  Global warming doesn’t cause hurricanes to form.  Ok.  It is a contributing factor in turning a tropical storm into a hurricane.   I live in Miami, and I know the difference.  Hurricanes can totally destroy a house and are deadly.    I was in Miami when Hurricane Andrew hit in August 1992 and I saw the destruction.

I was very  glad to see climate change listed along with terrorism as one of the major threats to US security as reported by National Security Director, Dan Coats in the Foreward of the 2018 assessment (see links) as follows:

Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the effects of air pollution,inadequate water, and climate change on human health and livelihood will become more noticeable. Domestic policy responses to such issues will become more difficult—especially for democracies—as public become less trusting of authoritative information sources.

Environment and Climate Change: The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018.  The past 115 years have been the warmest period in the history of modern civilization … (page 16) ,   

The report does not go into detailed as this is a highly condensed summary of immediate threats to the US.  It is clear from the report that water and food shortages increase the risk of unrest in parts of the world.   I fear these trouble spots will end up like Syria and Libya,  prolong proxy wars.    President Obama was ridiculed on Fox News suggesting that climate change could be a worse peril than terrorism to our country.

Our increasing environment problems becomes more noticeable – that’s right, if we take the trouble to see what’s happening.   Of course, when a hurricane comes and demolishes your dream beachfront home,  it is pretty difficult to ignore.

Just as I was ready to hit the publish button,  I discovered another news story, in which scientists consider our warming gulf coast waters make it likely that hurricanes will intensify at a more rapid rate (see Miami Herald story).   This gives everyone less time to evacuate, and is particularly bad for the less mobile (poor people, elderly, hospitalized folks) to get out of harm’s way.

To reiterate, it was great to see the New York Times break out of the publishing norms,  and put the graph front and center.  Of course, they followed up with pictures of melting glaciers in China, wildfires in Paradise, California,  Hurricane Florence in Florida, and a dried up section of the Rhine in Germany.  All of these were from 2018. And they put it all online so anyone could read their story.  Great work.  But,  there is more needed than just public awareness.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

It’s official: 2018 was the fourth warmest year on record

2018 National Threat Assessment

Climate change could be making Atlantic hurricanes stronger faster, study finds

Global Temperature Record (Wikipedia)

10 signs of a warming planet

Why Is the Cold Weather So Extreme if the Earth Is Warming?

Bolsonaro: Rights of indigenous people (Part 2)

by Dave

My family has many immigrants.  I am the son of an immigrant.   I am hurt by the hatred and absurd exaggerations on immigration.   Trump uses foreign aid as if it was a weapon to coerce other countries in agreeing to his policies.   He  sees a competitive and hostile world.

Immigrants are minorities.  I see a lot of Trump in Bolsonaro, to the indigenous people of the Amazon.  Actually Bolsonaro is worse.  Per the Guardian (see link below):

Bolsonaro’s environment policies are tied to racist attitudes toward minorities and Brazil’s indigenous peoples. In a speech last year, he said: “Minorities have to bend down to the majority … The minorities [should] either adapt or simply vanish.”

Expressing a view common to military circles, he has claimed, without evidence, that indigenous land rights are part of a western plot to create separatist Amazonian states supported by the UN.

“Sooner or later, we will have dozens of countries inside [Brazil]. We won’t have any interference in these countries, the first world will exploit the Indians, and nothing will be left for us,” he said last year.

Bolsonaro has promised to open indigenous lands to mining and other economic activities. About 13% of Brazil’s territory is recognised indigenous lands, most of them in the Amazon. They are a major barrier to protect the forest, only 2% of rainforest deforestation has occurred inside indigenous territory.

My advice is that Brazilian should not take this radical move away from international cooperation.  It will take a very long time to recover our international bonds once Trump is gone.    Fernando Haddad may not be perfect but he is a far better choice than Bolsonaro.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/09/brazils-bolsonaro-would-unleash-a-war-on-the-environment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro