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Making stuff up

by Dave

CBN is not CBS and ACLJ is not ACLU.  CBN stands for the Christian Broadcast Network and ACLJ stands for the American Center for Law and Justice.

I  did a Google search for FBI Director  James Comey, and at the top of the page,  was the headline,  “ACLJ accuses FBI Director of Obstruction of Justice in Clinton Email Case.”   This was posted by the CBN organization.

I found the information I really wanted by typing in “James Comey”  Wikipedia.

The American Center for Law & Justice (ACLJ) is a politically conservative, Christian-based social activism organization in the United States founded by Pat Robertson.   The Christian Broadcasting Network (CBN) is an American Christian-oriented religious television network and production company founded by televangelist Pat Robertson.

ACLJ is all about right wing politics.

ACLJ

 

And Pat Robinson is at the head of all this.  He  gets regular messages from God including the one that the world was going to end in 1982:  His latest message is as follows:

“God came to me in a dream last night and showed me the future,” said Robertson. “He took me to heaven and I saw Donald Trump seated at the right hand of our Lord.”

Of course, all the evangelicals were hoping  for Ted Cruz or Dr. Ben Carson,  but Trump is an adequate replacement  (obviously the bar has been lowered).

There’s going to be a lot of stuff posted on the Internet and from religious broadcast stations, particularly over the radio,   that are loaded with false accusations.   There is not one iota of evidence that the FBI did anything but a non-partisan and thorough investigation into the email scandal.

The bottom line is that Republicans are unhappy because the thorough investigation did not show any laws were broken.  If Comey had recommended criminal charges,  Republicans would have been ecstatic – even if this was unjustified by the evidence.  Hillary would be forced to end her campaign, and it would be a closer contest of Sanders v. Trump.

But Republicans couldn’t find a more unlikely target than Comey,  who served both Republican and Democrat  presidents,  a registered Republican for most of his life (he’s registered as an independent now) and was easily confirmed as Director of the FBI in 2013.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

The Stay at Home Crowd

by Dave

This is a quick note, really based on last night’s Mad Money show, where Jim Cramer was highlighting Tuesday’s  jump in Netflix and Domino’s Pizza stock price, as a direct result of the “stay at home” crowd.   Cramer then went on to talk about how everyone is ordering take-out and buying everything on Amazon.

I think he’s right.    His argument is that the internet, is making all this easier.  Ordering movies and pizza from tablets on the sofa, with the credit card information stored on the device- how convenient. And really very passive activity.

Bill Gates got it wrong.  It isn’t information we want  at the click of a mouse that we want. It’s pizza and movies.   And more stuff.

And I’m sorry, but I feel it’s a terrible trend.   Movie theaters  and restaurants are wonderful.  Travel.  Shows.  Camping.   Sailing.  Music in the parks.  Farmers market.  Interaction with people.  Excitement and new experiences.

Yeah!

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

So, who is going to win?

by Dave

Right now, Hillary is in front. But,  everything depends on FIONNA   – Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.  Trump has to win Florida.  Hillary doesn’t.  Not all forecasters have the same list of toss up states.  Some consider Arizona goes to Trump, and Nevada to Clinton, so  this leaves just FION.  Or we can call it NIFO, which sounds dirty.   Florida is still the biggy in all of this.

The New York Times, upshot webpage is still the best, as it provides other forecasts;

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Don’t vote Green Party

by Dave

The Green Party is very strong on the environment and equality, which is good.  I think supporters of the Green Party would do well by voting for Hillary Clinton.   The greatest challenge in the future will be global warming and only the Democrats can be counted on to push through Congress serious legislation to reduce greenhouse emissions.

It will also take international cooperation, particularly in India and China.   Jill Stein’s experience is very meager compared to Hillary Clinton in the area of international agreements.

It will take compromise.   I see the Green Party as a one or two issue group, with little capacity to compromise.

Green Party

It is also a wasted vote.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Trump’s numbers improve

by Dave

Clinton has between a 65 to 86% chance of winning.  A month ago,  she had around an 85% of winning.

It’s all about swing states.  Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire  re all in this category.     Florida is likely the most important of the seven, as it has the most electoral votes.   It looked like polls were showing it to “lean Democrat”  but now, it’s really anyone’s guess.   North Carolina is another solid toss-up after being leaning Democrat in a number of polls.

I feel the best statewide polls is where the candidate’s lead margin (lead over the next candidate) consistently beats the margin of error.   The margin of error is related to the number of people polled.

Look at North Carolina.  In the 4-way race polls since August 4,   Clinton won in two polls, and Trump won in two polls.  But, the lead margins are all equal to or less than the error of margin.   So, anyway you look at it,  NC is a solid tossup.

It would be assume that Jill Stein of the Green party is taking votes  away from Hillary Clinton.   Stein is not going to win any state nor will Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.  Both candidates are attacking both Clinton and Trump,  as establishment candidates, so their overall effect is hard to factor in.   Polling was so much more consistent when it was just 2 candidates.

Another ways polls differ is whether just registered votes or all likely voters are included.  I tend to favor the likely voter polls,   but with many polling groups,  they may have difficulty with a consistent manner to determine who is likely to vote.

Trump has in the last couple of weeks  gotten the most nationwide  television coverage, which I think has help him    If he can continue the trend, it might be a close election.

 

 

 

Stage III finally

by Dave

We are finally here.  Thank God.  It’s Hillary v. Donald, with a few loose ends, like Bernie’s final capitulation.   It’s off to the pageants- oh I mean conventions,  then each candidate  vying for the seven toss up states.

It is  nasty- with hot headed Donald, and the corrupt Hillary, exchanging barbs every day.

Florida will decide the election.   South Florida are solid Democrat, and more rural areas are Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Benghazi- A Libyan Perspective

by Dave

This was first posted on October 24, 2015. I said that Obama was viewed very positively by Libyans.  A 2012 Gallup poll  proved me right-  90% of Libyan respondents viewed the US positively. The early statement of Susan Rice as the attack being a response to a video has also  proven to be pretty close, even though the Obama administration was really back peddling on this. An attack on the embassy  had been in the planning stages (nothing spontaneous) but the video help recruit Libyan so they could attack the embassy.  It was not as others claimed, including the Libyan government, that radical groups outside of Libya had attacked the embassy.  It was a fanatical group within Libya.

Dave's avatarnews and views

Not many folks in Miami have been to Libya. I have been there twice, once in 2011 just before the civil war, and again in 2013, after the war was over. I was a petroleum engineer consultant to oil companies run by Libya, so I interacted with Libyans everyday. I was there when the civil war first erupted in February 2011 and came back in 2013, after the war was over By mid 2013, peaceful conditions had been established

In 2013, I worked in Tripoli, Libya. Frequently, I would walk to Martyrs’ square for shopping or a meal. There, in the Plaza, would be plywood replicas of coffins, each with photo of a Libyan who died in the 2011 civil war. An end of a civil war is both joyous and terribly sad. Streets leading up to Plaza were filled with the new flag of Libya. Books critical of Gaddafi…

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Trump’s VP Nomination

by Dave

Oops- Prior post referred to Governor Erst, she is a senator from Iowa- see comment.

I predicted it would be Senator Joni Ernst.   This was based on what Trump needs.   He needs a black, Hispanic, Asian woman,  taking care of  adopted children who has been a senator or a governor.  And who will deliver all 7 to 10 swing states.  And has no baggage and likely is charismatic.  Conservative credentials are good, but not too extreme.   Trump needs the independent vote.

Chris Christie comes with way too much baggage.  Bridgegate revealed that Christie can be very pushy at times- not a quality Trump would wants.   Governor Susanna Martinez of New Mexico, scores high, but doesn’t want the job.  Marco Rubio has great appeal, but Trump beat him in Florida and called him all sorts of names.   He’s out.     Newt Gingrich is the ultimate in what Trump says he’s looking for- someone that knows congress and can get legislation passed.  But he’s 72 years old, and comes with baggage.  Sorry Newt.  Trump may pick a governor instead of some from congress, because they come with less baggage. So, it could go to Governor Martinez.

Senator Erst

Gov Martinez would have been a close second.  I personally thought Kelly Ayotte  would score high, being she is in a swing state (minor point, NH has only 4 electoral votes) and a strong counter to “over the hill” Hillary.

Stay tuned,

Dave

PS:  5/7/16 Senator Ayotte said she would support the Republican nominee, but would  not endorse Trump.   That’s it- off  the Donald’s short list, for sure.

 

Just another Dilma post!

by Dave

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is in trouble.   Is she being treated  fairly?  It seems more in line with “kick me when I’m down”  than cleaning up government.  In fact, post Dilma, the government or at least the democratic process might be worse off.

I don’t know any better source than the New York Times, which now provides for free, an online collection of their articles,  bringing together insightful analysis:

New York Times Articles

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Dilma Rousseff and Lava Jato

by Dave

There is no evidence linking President Dilma Rouseff to the car wash scandal.   But, there is plenty of evidence linking others seeking her impeachment to this scandal,  including her vice president, Michel Temer.

But,  hopefully he does not follow Dilma out the door, as the next in line,  Eduardo Cunho, Speaker of the lower house, is being charged with money laundering in connection with the scandal.  An excellent article from the BBC is provided below:

Brazil Impeachment (BBC) 

Imagine you suspect your house was robbed, so you call the police, and they rob you for real.  I think this is the situation in Brazil.

The leaders  replacing Dilma may be worse than her.   Worse, the grounds for impeachment have been made too broad. The next president  must forever keep one eye on the politics of the lower house of congress.

The economy in Brazil is bad.  But, how much should be blamed on the president?  The past year was terrible for commodity prices, particularly oil and iron ore.  Everyone in Brazil knows how the government went on a  spending craze for new stadiums in 2014 prior to the World Cup.

But beginning late January to the first 10 days in January, oil prices have begun to recover.   The stock market, as measured by the index fund, EWZ in US dollars,  is up 51% in the last 3 months. The US market as measured by the S+P index is up 9% in the same period.   The real in the past week has risen 10% against the US dollar.   So, as Dilma is being shown the door,  I believe the economy of Brazil, which is a large part of the frustration with her,  is getting better.

Perhaps what went wrong, was the deterioration of the economy at a time of high expectations.  A 10% approval rating for President Dilma, is incredibly low.

There is an option to suspend President Dilma, for six months, with a simple majority.  I guess this would be the obvious choice if impeachment efforts fail to get the 2/3 needed to oust her.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Winning

by Dave

Trump hit upon a very simple analogy to politics- sports.  You support your local team.  You don’t say anything good about the New York Yankees if you support the Chicago Cubs.

But Trump’s analogy just doesn’t work in politics.   What gets big results is diplomacy and consistency.  – and that  takes a lot of time and international cooperation.  You can’t slam China one day for currency exchange manipulation  with hostile trade  policies aimed at coercing them into changing, and then the next minute, expect their assistance in an embargo of goods to North Korea.  That’s Trump’s plan apparently.  It really makes no sense.

This “punch them in the mouth and then hug and praise them next , and ask them for a favor”  destroys trust and cooperation.

“To jaw-jaw is always better than war-war” is a famous quote from Winston Churchill.   International cooperation is a buzz word to many, but it is exactly what happens everyday in government.  A lot has happened in the last month that makes me optimistic.

It is not a case of wanting to win,  but how to do it.  The choice is “winning alone” or “winning together.”  The arrests of ISIL terrorists in Belgium made headline news.  But, the capture Khalid Al-Barnawi with Ansaru, a radical terrorist group associated with Boko Haram  in Nigeria and neighboring countries called for celebrations in the street.

“Put your money where your mouth is”, is a great saying.  The US  put a 5 million dollar bounty on Al-Barnawi’s capture.  It is obvious  terrorism doesn’t respect the boundaries of any country.    Boko Haram has caused the death of 17,000 people and caused millions to flee their homes.   Al-Barnawi- may you rest in peace along with your insane and barbarous gang of thugs.

The announcement that China was not going to import coal from North Korea, appears to be another big win for nuclear non-proliferation.  It is part of the UN sanctions against North Korea for their nuclear program.   I suspect a lot of credit goes to John Kerry and Sandra Powers (US Ambassador to the UN) for this  “win” – but it will be a long and frustrating road ahead.  A carrot and stick approach  must be applied and this requires cooperation of the major world powers working within the framework of the UN.  This is why the UN was created,  to resolve disputes without war.  You may get talks going through “stick” policy, but if the carrot isn’t there, nothing will change.    The carrot is a lifting of the sanctions, once North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons program and agrees to highly intrusive inspections.

The US international policy has been to villainize a country to a point, where there is no incentive to change.  The “jaws-jaws” approach has resulted in a better relationship with Cuba- and it was badly overdue. It will take time for many in the US to adjust to the new policy.    Efforts in international cooperation are really bearing fruits, with advances in world health and control of epidemics,  the space exploration and the international  agreements on  climate change.

Mr. Trump should know, the “jaw-jaw”  approach is working.  But, there are no quick wins, or home runs in diplomacy.  Translating talk into action takes time to achieve the necessary unity  and a lot of perseverance.

It is “together wins” not the US wins which will determine the future.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Richard Nixon and Dilma Rousseff

by Dave

President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil is being compared to Richard Nixon.

Richard Nixon resigned and left office on August 9, 1974.  He was never impeached, nor was there ever a trial of impeachment.

Nixon resigned because it was likely he was going to be forced to leave office after a trial of impeachment.    There were numerous allegations made against him at the time, but it is likely the most serious one was directing his staff to keep the FBI from investigating members of the White House.  It would be called the Watergate cover-up scandal.

The most thorough study  of Watergate scandal was done by former White House Counsel, John Dean.  His 2014 book showed there was no evidence that President Nixon had prior knowledge of the break in of the Watergate offices.   Dean came to this conclusion after listening to many taped conversations in the  White House, which have be declassified and available to the public.

The crime in Nixon’s case, was obstruction of justice.  He was aware that payments were being made to the burglars  to buy their silence. After Nixon resigned, he would have likely been indicted and tried for obstruction of justice. However, President Ford gave him a full pardon, so there was no trial.

To the public, Nixon was being considered by many to be guilty of a crime he did not commit,  which was prior knowledge of the break in.  People thought he was guilty   because so many of his close associates were involved.   This is called “guilt by association” usually followed by “trial by the press” or today,  “trial by social media.”

President Dilma is also going through trial by social media. Second,  President Dilma also has attempted to shield Lula from the Lava Jato investigation by appointing him to the cabinet.   However, she obviously did not hide this fact, and thought it was legal.   The Supreme Court ruled against this appointment.

President Nixon also got overruled by the US Supreme Court when the Special Prosecutor subpoenaed   the White House tapes.   The US Supreme Court has made many ruling limiting actions of the president.   They stopped President Truman when he tried to nationalize the US steel mills, stating this was beyond his authority.  The Supreme Court is the final arbiter in conflicts between the Executive Branch and Lower Court decisions.

But Nixon secretly obstructed justice- and that proved to be his downfall.  And President Dilma?  The critical question going forward, is not whether she has made wrong decisions , but whether she knowingly violated the law.   Also, were these violations at a level that requires her removal.  Because once the senate starts lowering the standard on what is an impeachable offense,    Presidents can only serve as long as the congress allows them.  Congress can not lead a country, only cause a permanent state of chaos.    The mandate to govern the country is  given to the President by the people  through open elections once every four years.

A number of our more famous presidents would have not served out their terms, if  impeachment option was an easy option.  Most likely, the Senate would impeach Obama tomorrow if it could do so on purely political basis.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

Zubik v. Burswell- Another Supreme Court Challenge to Obamacare

by Dave

” Clowns to left of me, jokers to the right, Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.”  Lyrics-  Steve  Healy  band.

The “you” in Steve Healy song, are the plain facts about the latest case to come before the Supreme Court. Most people are not interested in facts.  The clowns and jokers are far more entertaining for their 90 seconds of fame.   I dedicate this blog to my favorite clown/joker Graham Ledger, truly outstanding for his total certainty on topics of which he has no real knowledge.  One day it will be Iran, the next Obamacare or the deficit.  He is a truly non-stop Obama basher.  When lesser minds prevail, God save us all!

Oral arguments were held on   March 24,  in Zubrik v Burswell in the Obamacare case.

ZUBIK ORAL ARGUMENTS

We think of religious freedom as guaranteed under the First Amendment.  In fact, our rights are further extended and defined by many other laws and rulings by the courts.  Religious freedoms, as with every right in the Bill of Rights, are limited.   You may not refuse to pay your taxes, because that is a violation of your religious principles.   If your religious principles says that you can not hire blacks or Muslims in your business, the laws related to race and religious discrimination will likely supersede these religious beliefs.

I will examine religious freedoms in a separate blog.  It isn’t as Ted Cruz or Graham Ledger portray it.  They extract from many cases,  a  select few concerning Catholics and ignore many other cases from lesser religions.

But the Zubrik case involves  the extend of religious accommodations based on  the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA which the justices refer to  as “ree fra).  It is not a constitutional case. This is the mistake made by conservative commentators on Fox News and One American News.

It is about whether  accommodations made in the ACA (aka Obamacare) for those seeking exceptions to the contraceptive program are adequate.  Or do these accommodations in fact become  burdensome as the plaintiffs claim.    In attempting to enforce the RFRA, could the court go as far as say anybody could opt out of any part of Obamacare, because in their minds, it conflicts with their religious beliefs? In doing so, what is slowly eroded is this notion of a standard set of benefits,  independent of the provider of the insurance.  Of course, this is exactly what those opposed to Obamacare want.

A lot of Supreme Court observers expect the court will divide 4-4 in which case, the lower court cases stand.  I believe it will be a 5-3 decision, with Justice Anthony Kennedy siding with the liberal group. It is possible that the decision will be 6-2, with both Roberts and Kennedy joining the liberal side. There is a final option to hold over the case,  in hopes that the Congress will approve a new justice.

We shall find out in June, 2016.

In the next few blogs, I hope to go a bit deeper into religious freedom.  It is crazier than you think!

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Media

by Dave

 

laugh fest

Image from Africanews.com on South Sudan Laugh Festival last week.

The  four axioms of media reporting are:

  1. If it bleeds, it leads.*
  2. Incidences closer to the viewing audience are far more important than further away.
  3. The more similar the victims are to the viewing audience, the more likely people will watch
  4. Commentary should  conform to long held beliefs of viewing audience.  Fox has conservative  commentators and MSNBC has liberal commentators.

A terrorist attack in a shopping mall in Iowa.  Hasn’t happened, but if it does,  you will have every reporter in the country swarming down to cover the story.  And every political candidate will have something to say with tweets and text messages flying around within milliseconds.

A 178 people have die from an epidemic of  yellow fever in Angola. Reported last week. It was on BBC, one of my favorite news channels. Relatively unimportant as it is in Africa.

A blend of happy and sad news is nice.  Obama dancing the tango is fine. Of course, if you’re Fox News,  everything can be Obama’s fault.  Instead of dancing the tango, our Chief-in-Commander should be flying to Brussels in Air Force 1 , dressed on combat gear,  on the phone to the Brussels’ police demanding two Muslim terrorists are caught right now.

There is a lot of  election year theatrics.  Interpol exists if  you don’t know.  Fox plays to its audience- like usual. If Obama did try to be involved,   Fox would have come down, full force, that he was grandstanding,  totally superficial and an attempt to score points from a tragic event.  But both Kerry and Biden went to Belgium. and I’m certain discussions are of a longer term strategy for defeating ISIL fanatics.

Reporting from China or Moscow, what six people on the street think about Donald Trump is not international news.

A lot of things happen in the past week.  How many reporters flew to South Sudan to participate in the first Laugh Festival?

South Sudan’s Laugh Festival

From the looks of it, some people were close to dying from laughter.   How in the world do you have a laugh festival in a country beset with so many problems?  South Sudan is one of the world’s newest country,  for 2 years has been in a terrible civil war.

Yes, dear – there are serious events occurring outside of the US – Europe, and the other three “newsworthy” countries Cuba, Canada and Mexico.  The Brazilian Congress has started impeachment proceedings against their president, Dilma Rouseff  this week and over 3 million people protested against the government in Sao Paulo.

And just last week,  South African police launch a graft probe against the President Duduzane Zuma’s son.

Volkswagen and the EPA were supposed to be in court this week to tell the judge if the problems with emissions were fixable.  They got a one month extension.  I think it’s their second extension.

Last week, we learned scientists believe the Zika virus has been around in Brazil for 2 years. To me that’s frightening.

From the country down under, the Great Barrier Reef is disappearing due to climate change:

Great Barrier Reef 

But like the news of South Sudan’s festival, there was plenty of positive news, of which 99% goes unreported.  The new funding for World Health Organization to combat yellow fever in Africa last week has to be one of them.  The agreement signed in Egypt  between defense ministers from 27 African and Arab countries, pledging  information sharing in combating terrorism is another.  Or how women farmers are making a big difference and the great work of the Rainforest Alliance.  Terrific news.

I like to watch BBC  and Al-Jazeera news.   I like One American News, but only for their reporting, not commentary.  They keep them separate.  I like Bloomberg News.   I watch Fareed Zakaria  on CNN which is good,  except he should let others give “their take” as the lead in to the program.

Perhaps, the media could have reported on South Sudan’s laugh fest as kind of a happy news filler.

Stay tuned.

Dave

  • quote from Marshall McCluhen

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

John McAfee and Cell Phone Security

by Dave

John McAfee can break into the Apple’s iPhone 6 if they just give him a chance, but his claim  is certainly total bluster. The claim gets John McAfee his 15 minutes of fame, although today it has been cut to about 90 seconds on national television.   I explained the government’s problem with hacking through  the iPhone 6 in a separate blog- but it’s worth reviewing.

Apparently, law enforcement departments across the country have a large number of iPhone 6 they would like to open.  FBI Director Comey explained the problem best as they want Apple to remove the watchdog in front of the security system.  Apple’s iPhone 6 has built in  defenses when it suspects there is an intruder.  Entering the password too many times, initiates a delay in password attempts.  The user can activate another security measure which would wipe clean iPhone contents if too many attempts are made on the phone.  The phone is still functional in every respect, except the user’s content such as telephone numbers, pictures, etc is gone. These measures thwart an attempt to open the iPhone by simply trial and error iterations on the password.

So, what the government has been unable to do, is to find a means of calling off the watchdog, presumably by some code change in the operating system.  Once that is done, it could be days, months or years (or never) to hack through the phone by guessing at the password. The government is likely has experts working with other iPhone 6 so they don’t trigger the defense mechanisms on the San Bernadino phone.

Along with pictures, there is likely stored GPS information, useful in tracking the movements of the San Bernadino terrorists.  The contents of  cell phone these days is a phenomenal tool in solving crimes.  But search warrants are required.

Now what you need to know about John McAfee.    John McAfee founded McAfee and Associates,  but he sold out way too soon.  He credits the success of his company, to finding the best individuals to write the anti-virus software.   He has a long history of being an incredible promoter of his latest endeavors.   For decades, he separated himself from the computer technology world. As a great marketer that he is, he was involved in marketing various enterprises including yoga, ultalight flight, and anti-viral medicines based on plants grown in Belize.  With the wealth gained from the sale of McAfee, he built a number of beautiful homes and according to McAfee, had to unload them at a loss.  Now, he has founded Future Tense Central and announced he is running for president.   I don’t see much for sale at his website but a baby monitoring system.

Ok.  So why John McAfee is blowing hot air?  Because if what he is saying is true, he can at any moment,  demonstrate his company’s ability to open  iPhone 6. If he could do that,  I’m sure he will be in strong demand from law enforcement across the country, with much less publicized cases, such as theft and drug cases.  Of course, these would be cases where the police has valid search warrants to hack the phones based on probable cause.

He’s teasing the FBI- I know how to open the phone and you don’t. Ha ha ha.  And I can’t tell you unless you give me the San Bernadino iPhone, which the FBI can’t do, in case John McAfee sets off the watch dogs.

But, McAfee always sounds very good.  He gets invited as keynote speaker at computer security conferences.  And obviously, he knows how to get on MSNBC or Fox News in their attempts to  find commentators on any hot topic of the day.

Stay tuned,

Dave