Third Party Candidates

by Dave

A number of polls show third party candidates may pull as much as  12% of the vote in some states.    I believe this is a result of the constant mudslinging between Trump and Clinton.  If someone truly believes in what Clinton and Trump are saying about each other, then we have two of the worst human beings for the presidency.  Hillary belongs in jail for dishonesty, and Trump also, for sex offenses.

The third party candidates get off  scot- free, because we all know they can’t win.   Interviews are much easier, because there’s no checks of prior statements.

But between Trump and Clinton,  a lot of the mudslinging is just not true:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trump-twists-facts-on-wikileaks/

Nice video on last debate:

http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/video-town-hall-debate-fact-checks/

I did catch about 5 of the lies in the debate.  At least, I knew we were not energy independent, and never have been:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/09/investing/us-energy-independence-oil-opec/

By the way, if oil prices go down,  our dependence will go up.  I hope to post more on the US energy future.

Of course,  I knew there were NOT  bombs all over the apartment where the San Bernadino couple lived.  I just thought Trump had some source of someone seeing something suspicious in the apartment.  Nope!

Next debate, I will have my list of 10 top lies, before Jake Tapper or anyone else can post theirs.

Finally,  I think third party candidates are appearing move frequently in the media just to break up the monotony of the continual accusations between Trump and Clinton.  You can blame this on CNN and others, all day all news format.

Stay tuned

Dave

Don’t vote Green Party

by Dave

The Green Party is very strong on the environment and equality, which is good.  I think supporters of the Green Party would do well by voting for Hillary Clinton.   The greatest challenge in the future will be global warming and only the Democrats can be counted on to push through Congress serious legislation to reduce greenhouse emissions.

It will also take international cooperation, particularly in India and China.   Jill Stein’s experience is very meager compared to Hillary Clinton in the area of international agreements.

It will take compromise.   I see the Green Party as a one or two issue group, with little capacity to compromise.

Green Party

It is also a wasted vote.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Don’t Vote Libertarian

by Dave

Gary Johnson is a nice enough guy, but please do not vote for him.   The Libertarian party operates on a central theme that the government has gotten too big,  but their solutions in most cases, are completely unrealistic.   We all would like to cut the expense of government, but not the services.   A lot of their work is not seen by Americans.

A very telling moment came when Gary was asked a question about the fighting going on in Aleppo, Syria.   He was blissfully unaware of Aleppo.   We can not disengage ourselves from the rest of the world.    Johnson was stumped again when asked to name a world leader whom he admires.   Trump favors “Americanism” as he defines it, doing what’s best for the country.   Clinton’s message, “Stronger together”  generally favors international cooperation.   Johnson seems to favor putting on blinders on, and hope problems (both in the US and abroad) will just go away.

Under Libertarian rule, next time a hurricane hits NJ, Florida or Texas,  you can expect no help from the US Government.   Similarly, if there’s an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, or an earthquake in California, forget it.  But, as people struggle with putting their lives back in order, they will be free to smoke pot.   And prostitution will be legal.   Emergency help is all a part of the “welfare state.”     Educational assistance- gone.  Cooperative security through NATO and other agreements- gone.

The policies of the Libertarian Party  represent a giant step back in time.   And it won’t be pretty.   The only good thing about the Libertarian Party is they have no chance of winning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(United_States)

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Trump’s numbers improve

by Dave

Clinton has between a 65 to 86% chance of winning.  A month ago,  she had around an 85% of winning.

It’s all about swing states.  Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire  re all in this category.     Florida is likely the most important of the seven, as it has the most electoral votes.   It looked like polls were showing it to “lean Democrat”  but now, it’s really anyone’s guess.   North Carolina is another solid toss-up after being leaning Democrat in a number of polls.

I feel the best statewide polls is where the candidate’s lead margin (lead over the next candidate) consistently beats the margin of error.   The margin of error is related to the number of people polled.

Look at North Carolina.  In the 4-way race polls since August 4,   Clinton won in two polls, and Trump won in two polls.  But, the lead margins are all equal to or less than the error of margin.   So, anyway you look at it,  NC is a solid tossup.

It would be assume that Jill Stein of the Green party is taking votes  away from Hillary Clinton.   Stein is not going to win any state nor will Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.  Both candidates are attacking both Clinton and Trump,  as establishment candidates, so their overall effect is hard to factor in.   Polling was so much more consistent when it was just 2 candidates.

Another ways polls differ is whether just registered votes or all likely voters are included.  I tend to favor the likely voter polls,   but with many polling groups,  they may have difficulty with a consistent manner to determine who is likely to vote.

Trump has in the last couple of weeks  gotten the most nationwide  television coverage, which I think has help him    If he can continue the trend, it might be a close election.

 

 

 

Who’s ahead in the election?

by Dave

Hillary Clinton, as of Aug 5, has about an 80% change of winning this election.   This is strictly based state polls, and who will win the most electoral votes.   To figure out who will win, you have to follow the toss up states.   In fact, there are just 3 solid ones left- Florida, Ohio and North Carolina.

So what is toss up status?    It is generally when either Clinton or Trump have less than 65% and more than 35% chance of winning.  It is generally when the outcome of statewide polls show the difference in the candidates is less than the margin of error.  If several statewide polls show conflicting results,  it is a toss up.

Florida, Ohio and North Carolina have shown slim differences in polls, and conflicting results- so they are solid toss ups.   Some like the New York Times, believe Georgia is in the toss up camp.   Others think Georgia could lean Republican.  Arizona is considered toss up by some, or lean Republican.   Right now,  Nevada,  New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin and Iowa are generally considered to lean Democratic.  Clinton could win the presidency without winning either the popular vote or the most states.

My guess is Hillary Clinton will surpass the 270 electoral votes needed by 50 to 70 electoral votes.  I’m going to run a few simulations on this, and I’ll come up with the most accurate (or at least the most precise) number possible.

Frequently wrong but never in doubt.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Election Predictions

by Dave

The best way to figure who will win, is to keep a close eye on state-wide polls of the swing states.  Since the beginning of this current madness,  there have been hundreds of polls, most of which at this point,  only confirm what we already know.    New York votes Democrat. Similarly,  Texas votes Republican.   These are the solid blue and red states.

National polls show the candidates to be close.  Trump is likely to win more states than Hillary.  But,  winning the most states doesn’t win the election.

The only way any candidate can win an election, is to win some of the swing states.  Hillary Clinton is in Florida right now.   Donald Trump, of course, is getting ready to make a grand entrance in Cleveland, OH.   These are the two really key swing states.   The other really big one is North Carolina.

So,  while a ton of predictions are being churned out,   few understand the prediction process.  Each state is assigned a probability that the Republican or Democrat will win in November.  Texas, for example has a 99% chance of going to Trump.   The reason for this is simple.  All the polls show Trump beating either Sanders or Clinton.  Similarly, Trump has nearly no chance to win New York. This leaves about 10 to 13 swing states, with probabilities much closer to toss up status (50%).   North Carolina is closer to a solid “anyone’s guess” or 50% than any other state.

Overall, using  probabilities by state, Clinton has a 70-75% chance of winning.  It is noted that the effect of third party candidates has not been taken into account in most polls.

These predictions are remarkably close to the odds given by the bookies from across the pond.

New York Times – Who will be the next president?

The predictions change as poll numbers change.    Each candidate will focus on states where they are lagging.  If more states move closer to the 50% probability value, the net result may be a decrease in election predictability.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Ted Cruz – the ultimate recycler

by Dave

Ted had his acceptance speech written for sometime, I guess.  Not wanting it to go to waste,  he could have kept it handy until he was re-elected to the Senate in 2018.  But, it was such a good speech, about his conservative values,  he just could let it go to wait until then.  A lot of the speech was about recent events, and by 2018, it would look really stale.  O what to do!  Folks from the NY delegation realized this speech was all about Ted and not a mention about the Donald.

Many thought he would just take the lead from Chris Christie,  comparing Hillary to some demonic spirit, for putting the nation at peril with her lie about “more than one device.”

It will be the most talked about speech because what he did not say, which was “Vote for Trump.”

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Third party candidates

by Dave

There is Gary Johnson, for the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein for the Green Party.   Polls show that Stein receives about 1% of the vote.  I think this reduces the Democratic polls.  Johnson has polled as much as 14%- that’s a lot.  Libertarians I feel are closer to Republicans than Democrats,  but it very much depends on the issues.   One thing is clear, and they want much less government spending.   So, that makes them seemingly like Republicans.   But, they may also be very against bail out of Wall Street-  and more aligned with Bernie Sanders.

As Republicans and Democrats escalate their campaigns,  I suspect the third party candidates will be drowned out, and Johnson will be lucky to get 1- 3%.  But for the toss-up states, this could be significant and hard to factor in to the polling data.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election

by Dave

There are a number of approaches.   The two approaches I particularly like are:  (1) the bookies and (2) swing state poll opinions. Right now, if the 7 to 13 swing  states are evenly divided between Trump and Clinton, Clinton wins with at least 50 electoral votes above what she needs to win.  The swing state method usually considers many of the states as solid democrat or solid republican based on the last 4 elections, of which 2 went to Obama and 2 went to Bush.    I’ll have more on this later.  The bookies still have Clinton ahead, with an approximately 75% chance of winning.

These predictions haven’t changed much in the last couple of months.  Some believe the third party candidates could effect the results.  On this issue, it is too early to tell.

Stay tuned,

Dave

One American News- Biased Reporting

by Dave

Florida is the largest of the battleground states, in the 2016 election.  One American News reported  Florida’s voters  now  lean more toward Trump following the release of Benghazi reports.   Gravis Marketing did the polling.  I have no reason to believe their  polling was biased.   Their sample size of 1619 registered voters is above average.  The bias is the way the results were reported.

The polls showed in a race between Clinton and Trump,  52% of the respondents favored Clinton verses Trump with 48%.  However, in a three way race,  Trump led with 49% verses  Clinton with 45% and “Other”  with 6%.   So, it really looks like Florida is too close to call or still a toss up state.

There are two Benghazi reports.  The  Democrat’s version, approximately 300 pages,  was released on Monday, July 27 and the official version, backed only by Republican members with 800 pages was  released mid-day on Tuesday, July 28.  The poll took place from July 27 to 28, 2016.   So, how many of the respondents might have  reacted to each report is unknown, but it is likely a wash in the end.

It is unfortunate the biased reporting from OAN.  They said they don’t mix news with commentary like Fox News .  They just did exactly that.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

http://www.oann.com/pollflorida/

Veepstakes

by Dave

Trump will pick Jeff Sessions.  It’s a close call.   The bookies are divided between Sessions and Gingrich with lower odds on Christie and Kasich.   Bob Corker  has recently been added to the short list by CNN,  although the bookies have him ranked lower than the rest.

You can argue until the cows come home who Trump should nominate.  I originally said he would pick Joni Ernst,  but she’s out based on her recent comments.   Trump will win most southern states, so Corker and Sessions don’t bring much to the ticket.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Stage III finally

by Dave

We are finally here.  Thank God.  It’s Hillary v. Donald, with a few loose ends, like Bernie’s final capitulation.   It’s off to the pageants- oh I mean conventions,  then each candidate  vying for the seven toss up states.

It is  nasty- with hot headed Donald, and the corrupt Hillary, exchanging barbs every day.

Florida will decide the election.   South Florida are solid Democrat, and more rural areas are Republicans.

Stay tuned,

Dave