climate change

We are not going back! (Part I)

by Dave

We’ve had our wake up calls. Cautionary tales, if you will. If we can just learn from them, and not be blindsided by Trump’s continuous trail of lies spread by Fox News and others.

Hurricane Milton should be a wake up call. Russia seizure of Crimea, a part of Ukraine, was another wake up call. The storming of the US Capital, and cries to hang Mike Pence, with sitting President, who did nothing for 2 full hours- that certainly should have been a wake up call. Trump needs to be held accountable along with about six administrative accomplices.

And yes, we have very serious problems with fentanyl epidemic in the US. We need action now, not partisan politics from Republicans, who blocked the immigration bill of 2024, because that’s what Trump wanted.

You can’t select your issues – you have to deal with them.

President Trump downplayed Covid-19 epidemic. He dismissed climate change in the debates, like its not our problem because our air and water are clean. Global challenges need cooperation and compromise. He is all about what is best for his base, and will embrace absurd conspiracy theories if it gain him a few extra votes.

We can’t go back to the early 1970’s when global warming was a theory

Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis dismissed climate change as cause of hurricane. The warming of the Gulf of Mexico, and the coastal areas of the Atlantic (Bahamas and Caribbean) our critical factors turning what might have been a tropical storm into a furious and extremely wet hurricane, causing massive flooding. We have created a hurricane incubator right on our doorstep, and the next hurricane may be plowing into very beautiful coastal cities like Galveston, New Orleans or Key West.

The scientific community understands why these extreme weather events (wildfires, floods, and hurricanes are related. Yes, we have had them before, but intensity and destruction is at a whole new level. Kamala Harris will push forward with many practical ways to reduce our energy consumption, and reliance on fossil fuels. And so vital to our challenge is getting China and India at the negotiating table to cut their emissions.

We have to support Brazil also in their efforts to stop rainforest destruction. Trump supported President Bolsonaro when he ignored the burning of millions of acres of rainforest, not understanding the importance to carbon dioxide absorption by the forest vegetation.

Trump lies about electric car mandates, just like he lie about everything else. There are government incentives, which make sense. Trump policy has not changed, since he attacked climate change as a hoax, and put in place the most ineffective cabinet secretaries in the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency, heavily influenced by the coal industry. It was a fiasco.

We can’t go back to year 2016, when Trump pulled out of the Paris Accords. It was our best chance of negotiating with other developed countries on setting goals of reducing carbon emission. And we certainly can’t go back to the early 1970’s when climate change was a theory. Now, we see the real impact and it is lost homes and lives.

We can’t go back to enormous dependence of fossil fuels

Harris will lead our country to take practical measures to reduce our carbon emissions. She is for expansion of our nuclear energy programs. Federal programs which encourage people to buy electric vehicles and expansion of recharge stations is critical to the transition to greener fuels. Trump will gut the IRA, with these vital incentives. Wind and solar power has gone from theory to a real source of renewable energy.

We can’t go back to 1940 either!

This was a time when many in our country felt Hitler could be dealt with diplomatically. Also, the sentiment was that we could take care of the problems in our country and let Europe take care of their problems, namely Germany. Of course, their problems became our problems on at 7:18 am on December 7, 1941, when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. Appeasement of Germany wasn’t the solution in World War II, and appeasement of Putin in 2024 by giving them a piece of Ukraine will not satisfy Russia.

This is why Trump is being strongly opposed by Trump’s former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, and former Secretary of Defense, James Mattis. The were in the room, when Trump was actually praising former dictators.

Harris will continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, without sending US troops. Most importantly, this aid will be coordinated with our European allies.

We can’t go back to 1972 either – the Nixon years

The era of Richard Nixon, tested how much a president could hide from the American people, when he broke the law. Nixon crime was obstruction of justice and I feel he knew this was illegal. Trump really feels he can wantonly break the laws with no consequences.

As President, he will subvert the Department of Justice to make it the most partisan department in the United States. He will dismiss only Special Counsels that are investigating him and other Republicans. He really relates to powerful and rich people who committed business and tax fraud. He will pardon corrupt attorneys, claiming they were framed by the government. The only criteria will be if they help him. Trump believes he and his allies are above the law. This is how a democracy erodes into an autocracy.

Harris will allow the Department of Justice to proceed with criminal investigations, regardless of status and political parties. She will keep a hands off approach to criminal investigations by the FBI and DOJ.

Bottom Line:

It is all about progress. Climate change from carbon emissions in the 1970’s was theory, built mainly form computer modeling. In 2024, the evidence on the ground is overwhelming, including Hurricane Milton. It isn’t a China Hoax.

Carbon emissions can be reduced. We can’t go back to our dependence on fossil fuels. Today, 80% of solar panels are made in the US, and this is good for employment. We win the trade war by making better products.

We can’t appease Putin. We must support Ukraine. Trump has said he will end the war in one day. Yes, by cutting off Ukraine from all military assistance, lifting sanctions on Russia and telling Putin that Ukraine is theirs.

We can not put Trump back in the White House, because he will make the Department of Justice and the FBI, the two most partisan and corrupt departments in government, since the era of Nixon. Nixon at least resigned when he was caught. Trump feels he is above the law.

Kamala Harris has provided a way forward, which will require compromise and cooperation. Trump is just the same hot rhetoric. We can’t go back. Trump will make America worse.

Vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz to keep moving forward.

If you read this and agree with it, please consider sharing it with friends.

Part II is coming soon.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Trump, Carbon Emissions and Climate Change

by Dave

It is estimated that a total of 35 billion tons per year of carbon dioxide are emitted due to fossil fuel and industry consumption. It is a global problem and must be solved through global cooperation. China and India have steadily increased their emissions since 2000, while the US has decreased its emissions.

See link: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

Donald Trump called climate change a hoax and minimized its impact. When asked about climate change during the debate, he really avoided the topic and bragged how we have the cleanest air and water in the world. It felt like it was almost unpatriotic to talk about the real driver of climate change and extreme weather events, and that is CO2 emissions.

As California battled the deadliest wildfire in its history in 2018, Donald J. Trump, then the president, initially opposed unlocking federal funding for the state, according to two former Trump administration officials. (Oct 4, NY Times)

See link: Aides Say Trump Resisted Sending Federal Funds After California Wildfires

Then there is Trump’s false claim that FEMA is partisan in providing disaster relief. “Out of more than 20 Florida counties that the federal government designated as eligible for individual and public assistance through Thursday, Mr. Trump lost just three in the 2020 election.” So, in Florida, relief goes to mostly Republican leaning states, and there is no evidence of favoritism.

Link: Trump slams US response to Helene. His own disaster-response record is marked by politics

Link: White House calls Trump’s claim FEMA disaster relief money spent on migrants ‘absolutely false’

Link: FEMA rumor response (Note: Trump promoted some of these rumors, others came from social media sources who seem to have unlimited imagination and find sites willing to post almost anything)

We can do better, but not under Trump. George W. Bush understood the necessity of making the transition to clean energy, and moderate Republicans can work with Democrats in taking practical steps to reduce non-renewable fossil fuels.

“Trump has also signaled that he would drain funding from climate-focused agencies if he’s elected. In discussing budget cuts, he told Fox News, “One of the things that’s so bad for us is environmental agencies. They make it impossible to do anything.”

As president, Trump proposed a 26% budget cut to the EPA in 2020 and a 31% cut in 2019, both of which were ultimately rejected by the Democrat-led House Appropriations Committee.”

With wildfire and hurricane aid in the billions of dollars, we are dealing with the impact of climate change. We need to continue to fund real efforts to lower our consumption of non-renewable fossil fuels.

If elected, Trump will try to repeal sections in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to provide practical incentives to buyers of electric vehicles and other measures to curb our carbon emissions. It is in line with the Heritage Foundation, Project 2025 objectives. He will take a giant step back in time.

Kamala Harris has talked about the threat of climate change and the damage to communities and families from more severe weather — floods, hurricanes and wildfires — “has been devastating.” “I have always believed, and I have worked on it, that the climate crisis is real,” she told CNN in an interview.

CBS News: Do Trump and Harris have climate change plans? See where both candidates stand

Why is it so important that we continue to be the leaders in the move to transition to clean energy?

Declaring climate change is real and is hurting our country is the first step. The Paris Agreement sets a solid foundation so countries can set goals on plans to transition to clean energy. We need to work with India and China, which are the two largest emitters of CO2 . We need to work with Brazil and other countries, as they combat the destruction of rainforests, which absorb CO2.

We need plans not political rhetoric and dishonest tweets. We need global carbon emissions to go down.

On November 4, 2017, the Paris Climate Agreement became effective. It was a great moment, but if we elect Trump, we lose our seat at the negotiating table in transitioning to cleaner renewable fuels.

Elect Kamala Harris, because we can’t afford to go back.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Global Warming

by Dave

Scientists like to refer this as “climate change” but whatever it is called, it is real, it is worldwide and the consequences of ignoring it or belittling it, are very serious.

I was blown away when I saw this graph on the front page of the New York Times, on February 7, 2019.  I mean the front page of the New York Times is precious territory,  but the editors decided to put this graph at the top left corner, because it tells a very compelling story.   It is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Agency (NOAA) showing the 2018 global temperature is right on trend beginning around 1970.   Look at the last five points, 2014 to 2018, the temperatures are above all others on the chart,  meaning the last 5 years were the hottest ever on our planet.

This temperature increase coincides with increases in worldwide carbon emissions.   It is  distinctly different from the 1880 to 1930’s, random ups and downs.  Global warming is a factor in extreme weather events including the blistering cold snap in the Midwest, the extreme heat wave in Australia, hurricanes in Puerto Rico, Florida, and the gulf coast states,  prolong dry conditions in California promoting forest fires and expansion of deserts causing famine in Africa.

It is real,  It is bad,  And we lack leadership at the highest levels of our government.  Trump will pull out of Paris Accords, and did not say one word about climate change in the State of the Union address.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again.  Global warming doesn’t cause hurricanes to form.  Ok.  It is a contributing factor in turning a tropical storm into a hurricane.   I live in Miami, and I know the difference.  Hurricanes can totally destroy a house and are deadly.    I was in Miami when Hurricane Andrew hit in August 1992 and I saw the destruction.

I was very  glad to see climate change listed along with terrorism as one of the major threats to US security as reported by National Security Director, Dan Coats in the Foreward of the 2018 assessment (see links) as follows:

Challenges from urbanization and migration will persist, while the effects of air pollution,inadequate water, and climate change on human health and livelihood will become more noticeable. Domestic policy responses to such issues will become more difficult—especially for democracies—as public become less trusting of authoritative information sources.

Environment and Climate Change: The impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval—through 2018.  The past 115 years have been the warmest period in the history of modern civilization … (page 16) ,   

The report does not go into detailed as this is a highly condensed summary of immediate threats to the US.  It is clear from the report that water and food shortages increase the risk of unrest in parts of the world.   I fear these trouble spots will end up like Syria and Libya,  prolong proxy wars.    President Obama was ridiculed on Fox News suggesting that climate change could be a worse peril than terrorism to our country.

Our increasing environment problems becomes more noticeable – that’s right, if we take the trouble to see what’s happening.   Of course, when a hurricane comes and demolishes your dream beachfront home,  it is pretty difficult to ignore.

Just as I was ready to hit the publish button,  I discovered another news story, in which scientists consider our warming gulf coast waters make it likely that hurricanes will intensify at a more rapid rate (see Miami Herald story).   This gives everyone less time to evacuate, and is particularly bad for the less mobile (poor people, elderly, hospitalized folks) to get out of harm’s way.

To reiterate, it was great to see the New York Times break out of the publishing norms,  and put the graph front and center.  Of course, they followed up with pictures of melting glaciers in China, wildfires in Paradise, California,  Hurricane Florence in Florida, and a dried up section of the Rhine in Germany.  All of these were from 2018. And they put it all online so anyone could read their story.  Great work.  But,  there is more needed than just public awareness.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

It’s official: 2018 was the fourth warmest year on record

2018 National Threat Assessment

Climate change could be making Atlantic hurricanes stronger faster, study finds

Global Temperature Record (Wikipedia)

10 signs of a warming planet

Why Is the Cold Weather So Extreme if the Earth Is Warming?

The Paris Accords Exit

by Dave

The announcement will be made at 3:00 pm today (June 1, 2017).    It has been widely rumored that Trump will pull out of the Accords.  The Agreement was a very major step forward in acceptance of a global problem.

CNN outlined three options that Trump has: (1) The Normal Exit- by withdrawing from the Accords by 2020 (2) The Radical  Exit- by withdrawing from the UN organization (UNFCCC) under which the Accords were agreed upon and (3) The non-exit, which Trump simply ignores the provisions of the Accords.

The radical exit is the one supported by conservative groups,  such as the Heritage group.  The coal companies such as Peabody and Cloud Peak Coal, want Trump not to exit the Accords, as this puts the EU in a leadership role in setting targets.

Options

A final option (“death in the legislature” option)  is for Trump to  state the Accord is really a treaty, which must be ratified by 2/3 of the Senate.  With the Republican controlled Senate, the treaty would be “dead on arrival.”   This would change the issue to one of Obama overstepping his authority, and Trump might just go for it.

The Paris Agreement is more of an “agreement in principal”  rather than a treaty, as it lacks any penalties for countries who do not reduce their carbon emissions. It is an important first step as it is an  agreement of mutual commitment  to a global problem.   As it is structured,  the US could stay in the Accords,  do nothing to reduce these emissions and not be sanctioned by the UN.

Obama signed the agreement as an Executive Order.  Trump can legally exit the agreement, but has to comply with the set schedule if he wants to do the normal exit.

I predict that many countries will be looking more at the “non-exit” or “non-compliance” option, which means climate change is something leaders of the countries are concerned about, but  nobody does much about it.

This will leave the US as the only one of 193 countries to exit the Accord.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Solutions to terrorism

by Dave

No short term solutions.   There is no single action the US can do to defeat ISIL.   Eliminating ISIL or similar groups with the jihadist philosophy is likely impossible, in that it only takes a couple of fanatics to pull off an act of terrorism.   What Obama and the rest are focused on, is helping Iraq and Syria take back their control of cities and cutting off access to resources.  This is what I concluded after listening to President Obama on Sunday, December 6 and Susan Rice on CNN, which aired on the same day.  What began, at least for the US, under George Bush, and continued under Obama, will continue to be a problem for the next president as well.

Susan Rice is President Obama’s National Security Advisor.   The recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernadino, CA made this interview very timely.  She was interviewed by Fareed Zacharia, as part of his normal weekly program, CNN-GPS.

The lack of US troops in Syria is being construed as a) a lack of leadership, lacking in resolve,    b) not being in touch with reality, delusional  (Lou Dobbs prefers the latter) or  c)  ignorant of the facts.   The strategy is actually a result of being very informed of the facts, on a daily basis.   McCain has blasted Obama for not sending in large numbers of troops into Syria, saying the US has not plan.  Truth is we don’t have his plan.

Susan  Rice was asked if the Obama administration underestimated the force of ISIL.   She sidestepped the question by responding that  since mid-2014, the Obama administration has been considered ISIL a major threat to both Iraq and Syria, and  steps have been taken to destroy their organization.   But, it’s clear, Obama underestimated the threat.  The infamous “Junior Varsity  comment” occurred in January 2014, shortly after Fallujah fell in Iraq.     This year, ISIL has  shown to be incredibly resourceful and organized  in establishing new bases in other countries.

ISIL 

Rice did not want the interview to focus on  prior mistakes.  The list of mistakes is long and goes back George Bush’s administration.  But, it is not likely in late 2013 and early 2014, there was much the Obama administration could have done.

The question of whether we are winning or losing the war against terrorism, is another one that Susan Rice chose not to directly answer.  There are a number of scorecards.  Since San Bernadino, there is a real gut feel that we’re losing to terrorism.   It particularly hit home, when they were showing the stockpiles of arms and bullets these two terrorists had accumulated.  But, this is not my scorecard.  I see it more as the cities under their control and the growth of the organization world wide.  A major defeat occurred when Boko Haram pledge allegiance to ISIL.

I agree with President Obama, that putting troops in Syria, beyond the small special op’s group, would be counter-productive.   It would be seen as an invasion force by both the Syrian  government and ISIL, and recast the fight against terrorism as a fight against the Muslim world, which we must avoid at all costs.  There are 1.6 billion Muslims in this world,  obviously outnumbering us 5 to 1.   We have far more latitude in Iraq, and may be able to increase are presence there- but it must be a multinational presence.

Susan Rice in her interview, was asked if the world is becoming less stable place to live.  This clearly open the discussion to go beyond ISIL.  She responded to the many initiatives taken by the Obama administration to lower tensions and help solve world problems.  The Ebola epidemic is one success.   The Iran deal is another one- yet it is way to early to know if this succeeds in the end.   The end of a policy of containment of Cuba, is another initiative to lower tensions- and hopefully create a more durable relationship with our neighbor.   A lot of crises which are hardly resolved, including Libya were not discussed.   Conflicts with Russia are a colossal regional  destabilizing threat, and Rice simply stated that the US is looking for common ground.

I was thinking how much opposition the Obama administration has gotten with each of these initiatives.  I remember how much flack Obama got when he sent 3,000 troops to Africa to help with the Ebola crisis in the transport of supplies.   Fox News commentators acted like Obama was insane- saying there will be 3,000 infected troops coming back to the US,  and pretty soon the numbers will be be 3 million or 30 million Americans with Ebola.   Ebola is a case where international cooperation produced incredible success.

Most of the really important efforts will take enormous  international cooperation.  This includes the international climate change accords, likely to come from the Paris summit.   It’s a tough road ahead, to find unity abroad, while there is so much division in the US.

Stay tuned,

Dave