The announcement will be made at 3:00 pm today (June 1, 2017). It has been widely rumored that Trump will pull out of the Accords. The Agreement was a very major step forward in acceptance of a global problem.
CNN outlined three options that Trump has: (1) The Normal Exit- by withdrawing from the Accords by 2020 (2) The Radical Exit- by withdrawing from the UN organization (UNFCCC) under which the Accords were agreed upon and (3) The non-exit, which Trump simply ignores the provisions of the Accords.
The radical exit is the one supported by conservative groups, such as the Heritage group. The coal companies such as Peabody and Cloud Peak Coal, want Trump not to exit the Accords, as this puts the EU in a leadership role in setting targets.
A final option (“death in the legislature” option) is for Trump to state the Accord is really a treaty, which must be ratified by 2/3 of the Senate. With the Republican controlled Senate, the treaty would be “dead on arrival.” This would change the issue to one of Obama overstepping his authority, and Trump might just go for it.
The Paris Agreement is more of an “agreement in principal” rather than a treaty, as it lacks any penalties for countries who do not reduce their carbon emissions. It is an important first step as it is an agreement of mutual commitment to a global problem. As it is structured, the US could stay in the Accords, do nothing to reduce these emissions and not be sanctioned by the UN.
Obama signed the agreement as an Executive Order. Trump can legally exit the agreement, but has to comply with the set schedule if he wants to do the normal exit.
I predict that many countries will be looking more at the “non-exit” or “non-compliance” option, which means climate change is something leaders of the countries are concerned about, but nobody does much about it.
This will leave the US as the only one of 193 countries to exit the Accord.
The Paris Climate Agreement was considered a major breakthrough by most environmentalists. The US was e in a leadership role recognizing carbon emissions reductions requires international agreements, particularly from Brazil, India and China.
Trump vigorously campaigned against the Paris Climate Agreement. He said repeatedly the Agreement was against our national interest, and was a job killing/ coal industry destruction plan. The Democrats were trying to put the coal industry out of business.
Now, two of the largest coal companies, Peabody and Cloud Peak are urging Trump to break his promises and stay in the Paris Climate Agreement. Murray Energy, a private company which bills itself as America’s largest coal company, wants Trump to pull out. Robert Murray was at the signing of the Executive Orders to rescind the Clean Power regulations.
The reasons to stay in, is to keep EU leaders from taking control and setting tight international environmental standards on the burning of coal. This would hurt US export of coal, which declined by 23% in 2015. The 2016 figures have not yet been released, but I don’t expect any better numbers. Our exports are around 74 million short tons. Major declines in exports were from UK, Italy and South Korea in 2015.
It is also quoted in the article below that pulling out of the Accords might affect World Bank funding for international coal projects, which would hurt only the very large coal companies. Most of the coal companies operate only in the US. Peabody coal owns coal mines in Australia. It may be there is concern with World Bank financing new coal generating plants. Being part of the Accords can give the major platform to promote “clean coal technology.”
US Coal Companies ask Trump to stick with Paris Climate Deal
Trump’s campaign rode on Republican rhetoric and the highly simplistic theme of America First. The most pro-coal industry president we ever had, may end up doing more harm than good to his supporters.