Central African Republic and Russia

This posting is really about Putin’s expansionary policies, and using mercenaries to gain control of countries. Central African Republic serves as just one example.

The invasion of Ukraine shows the world that Russia under Putin has little respect for international law and conventions. There are many countries which are vulnerable to Russia’s control, and Putin will take advantage of any weakness to exert maximum control. In a previous post, I explained how the leader of Chechnya, Ramon Kadyron, is essentially Putin’s puppet, through channeling funds directly to him. Two of his wives own property in Moscow, worth about 8 million dollars. So, not only can Kadyron enrich himself from stealing from his own country, being Putin’s constant ally has enormous fringe benefiits.

Central African Republic is about the same size as France. Geographically, it is located above the equator, bordered by two larger countries to the north, Chad and Sudan, and to the south, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

It is a very poor country, ranked 188 of 189 countries, based on human development. It has an abundance of mineral wealth, including gold and diamonds.

Wikipedia: Central African Republic

Russia, I believe, sees an opportunity to dominate the country due to the geographic strategic importance and mineral wealth. Plus, in a way, they were invited in. Prime Minister Touadera welcomed the assistance of the Russia’s mercenary force, the Wagner Group, to secure the diamond mines from rebel groups shortly after his election in 2014. As reported by the New York Times, updated May 4, 2020:

“But Russia’s help comes at a cost. Its representatives have struck deals with the government to mine diamonds where the trade is legal — one of many signs that Russia’s push into the country is closely tied to the profits it can reap.

Russian operatives have even partnered with murderous rebels to obtain diamonds in areas where the trade is outlawed, cashing in on the very lawlessness they have been brought in to end, according to members of the Central African government, Western officials and some of the warlords themselves.”

Links to New York Times article: Gems, Warlords and Mercenaries: Russia’s Playbook in Central African Republic (originally published September 30, 2019)

Wikipedia, Wagner Group

The link above identifies the many countries where the Wagner Group mercenaries are deployed. The “Russian operatives” are members of Russia’s Wagner group. It is headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

“Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin[a] (Russian: Евге́ний Ви́кторович Приго́жин; born 1 June 1961) is a Russian oligarch[5] and close confidante of Russian president Vladimir Putin.[6] Prigozhin controls a network of companies including Wagner, a Russian state-backed mercenary group accused of war crimes in Africa, Syria, and Ukraine.

Further it is stated, “Prigozhin, his companies and associates face economic sanctions and criminal charges in the United States.” This is in connection to the Russian interference in US elections in 2016.

Per Wikipedia: Yevgeny Prigozhin

“In April 2022, during Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it was reported that [Yevgeny] Prigozhin travelled to the Donbas to oversee personally Wagner Group’s campaign. He was pictured wearing military fatigues with Russian Duma member Vitaly Milonov who had travelled to the front line. In August 2022, Wagner Group began using billboards to recruit new members in Russia.

Former journalist and observer of the Group, Denis Korotkov said “It looks like they have decided that they will no longer try to hide their existence.”

Wow. Below is an AP photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin from 2016.

Wikipedia, Wagner Group

From Wikipedia, “Russian and some Western observers believe that the organization does not actually exist as a private military company but is in reality a disguised branch of the Russian MoD [Ministry of Defense] that ultimately reports to the Russian government.[133][134][135][136] The company shares bases with the Russian military,[137] is transported by Russian military aircraft,[138][139][140] and uses Russia’s military health care services.[141][142][143] The Russian state is also documented supporting the Wagner Group with passports.”

I left the reference numbers in, as these statements can all be verified. I believe CAR is going to be turned into another autocracy like Chechnya, subservient to Putin.

I also fear that Russia is using the Wagner group to gain control of Libya, through aiding Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army. National elections seem to be continually postponed. Gaddafi was toppled in 2011, and now, more than a decade later, the country is divided.

See link: Libya Could Be Putin’s Trump Card

The US is offering 10 million dollars reward for information on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Any additional information will most likely complete the various connections among Russia’s Internet Research Agency, the Wagner Group and Russia’s chief intelligence office (GRU).

See State Department link: Rewards for Justice

Please read the State Department statement. The Mueller investigation was not fake and the US State Department is taking very seriously the threat that Russia is posing to free and fair elections in the US.

There are other ways to hit back. Mercenaries in Ukraine posted a photo of their group, and the Ukrainians were quick to identify their location, allowing them to direct a missile strike against them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-16/ukraine-hits-wagner-group-base/101336834

So, the intervention of CAR by the Russians using a mercenary force is not an isolated incidence, but more of their overall game plan since at least 2014. Seeking help from Putin is make pact with the devil. It guarantees that the leaders will be rich, and not have to worry about re-election. In return, the government is just a puppet regime for Putin.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Attack on ISIL in Libya

The town of Sabratha, just outside of Tripoli to the west,  would easily rank as one of the top 10 places I would want to visit in by lifetime.  It isn’t on many people’s list, and certainly not today, after the occupation of the town by ISIL.

Sabratha

It has beautiful beaches and well preserved Roman theatre.   But as reported on Feb 19, 2016, US warplanes have put a serious dent in ISIL’s plans by hitting a training camp.

US Daily News

Good.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Libya – Dire Situation

As Republican look through umpteen emails of Hillary Clinton,  the Benghazi committee is lost in the past.  It is not investigation; it is grand standing attack on Hillary.

The survival of  Benghazi  and 600,000 residents are imperil at this moment from ISIL.  Intervention from outside appears the only way to keep the country together,  but this could turn out to be a proxy battle, much worse than Syria.

Libya, Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse,  Al Jazeera, Jan 28, 2016

The above article is excellent, as it discusses the two main threats- ISIL and Al Qaeda. But the chaos created by the rival Tobruk and Tripoli governments, makes intervention very hazardous.

An initial attempt to assist in fighting ISIL with a US Special Forces Unit, on Dec 16, 2015 ended in disaster.  The group had expected a warm welcome from Libyan leaders.  Instead  as the soldiers were “captured” and  sent packing immediately.

Libyan Air Force Reveals Failed US Special Forces Mission, Newsweek

The UN Peace Talks looked very promising in December as a final peace ageement was ready for signing.  But, as reported on Dec 23, 2015, both the heads of state, of the Tobruk and Tripoli parliaments, refused to sign the peace agreement.

So, I guess the operating principle right now  with leaders in both Tripoli and Tobruk factions, is-  “whatever weakens my enemy, strengthens my position” and recognition of the absolute necessity of unity for battling the jihadists is lost.

Meanwhile,  I suspect a lot of options are being discussed, not really on how to save Libya, but with the limited goal of not seeing a ISIL flag raised over Benghazi.

Obama looks set to take fight to Islamic State in Libya

It is a terrible mess, and there are no really good alternatives, given the political disunity.  I feel for the people of Libya.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Hope for Libya

It has been a busy week.  It is hoped that the rival factions in Libya will finally sign a peace accord on December 16.   This was announced on December 11 at the conclusion of a two day meeting in Tunis.  See link below.

The Arab Spring in 2011 resulted in the overthrow of Gaddafi, and a National Transitional Government took over.  The calm came to an end in 2014, with open warfare broke out among the  various ethnic/ religious  groups.

The internationally recognized government is located in Tobruk, located on the far eastern side of Libya, close to Egypt.  The rival government is located in Tripoli, on the western coast, the traditional capital of Libya.  In the western desert areas, bordering Algeria,  the Tuareg forces are in control.  They were loyal to Gaddafi during the 2011 civil war.

ISIL apparently controls Sirte located on the coast in the center of Libya,  the birth place and the city most  loyal to Gaddafi.

Kerry flew to Rome today to take part in a high level ministerial meeting, and voiced strong support for a cease fire and the peace agreement.

I believe the strategy to unification , obtain a cease fire “peace” agreement between the Tobruk and Tripoli governments, and  then work jointly to defeat the more extreme  jihadist factions.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

A fierce battle for control of Libya’s deserts 

Kerry goes to Rome for talks on Libya unity government

Libyan parties set 16 December as date to sign political agreement – UN envoy

Libya – Wikipedia 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Libya- and the diminishing hope for peace

Avoiding a catastrophic war takes more cleverness than hubris- although both work.

“Force is all conquering, but it’s victories are short lived.”
Abraham Lincoln

“Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall take flack from both sides.”- Unofficial UN Motto

Imagine putting together a puzzle, and all of sudden, the pieces of the puzzle start dividing into more pieces.  But the pieces are hardly made of cardboard, but have money, arms and in many cases hold the most valuable resources of Libya- its oil fields.

Blessed UN  peacemaker Bernardino Leon of Spain has been attempting to negotiate a peace agreement among rival factions  in Libya.  It is far easier to topple a unpopular dictator, than to create a  unified country.   If Syria is the ultimate in a failed state and civil war by proxy,  then Libya easily qualifies for second place.

It has looked for many months as a peace agreement might be close at hand,  chiefly between the Tripoli based government and the Tobruk based government, but to also  include other rival factions.  The 42 year reign of Gaddafi came to an end in October 2011, after approximately 10 months of fighting.

There was great hope for a far more open and democratic society, post 2011 throughout Libya.  Things appeared to be returning to normal, with the election of a new President in 2013 – but there was a political storm brewing below the surface.  The second civil war began in May 2014 with Operation Dignity followed by Operation New Dawn.  These military operations captured the airport in Tripoli and drove the elected government out of Tripoli.

Leon’s time in Libya appears to be ending soon as he has accepted a position to head a thinktank in UAE, but not without controversy as UAE supports the Tobruk based government.

Leon Bernadino – New Assignment and Controversy

He will be replaced Martin Kobler, a German diplomat,  with extensive background in the Middle East.

German to take up UN Libya Post

The UN representatives can only make peace if the rival factions want peace.  If they believe more will be gained by waging war, then the Libyan civil war will continue.   But,  this immediately ends the attacks on Leon Bernardino, by the Tripoli based government, which I believe  were done  for popular support.  Bernardino had hammered out a peace proposal among the rival parties, but the Tripoli based government refused to sign it. Libyans have been fleeing their country in record numbers since last year as the civil war has continued.

So, perhaps the Tripoli government will sign the accord now, with Bernardino out of the picture.  Or more chaos will ensue.

Stay tuned,

Dave