On July 31, 2021 there were 78,433 new Covid-19 cases based on the 7-day average. I use the 7 day average because it tends to smooth out the data. Presumably, for some states, when the daily data hasn’t been completely tallied, the state simply doesn’t report the daily data until the next day. On June 24, 2021, things look good with 11,662 new cases using 7 day averaging. A six fold increase in about 40 days. What happened? The delta variant for one. A slowing vaccination rate for another.

More opening up, relaxed masking regulations, and just people getting out and around for another. I was in a very crowded Miami airport. Although I was wearing a mask. I took it off to get a snack. Masks don’t really offer much protection to oneself as much as to cut down the chance of transmission to others. This is the logic of requiring everyone to wear a mask indoors.

As a country, I don’t think our goal should be some arbitrary value of % vaccinated, like 70 to 80%. It should be zero new cases, and we will see zero hospitalizations and zero deaths. That’s the long term goal, because the rest of the world is far behind in getting vaccinated.

It is well documented that the Delta variant is much more contagious. Fully vaccinated people can be infected with this variant, but getting vaccinated is still incredibly important, as it reduces the chance of hospitalization and improves the chance of recovery.

Nobody ever claimed that vaccines were perfect. The take away message from the surge in new cases is everyone should get vaccinate. There is a small group of people who have allergic reactions to vaccines. They need to consult their doctors prior to being vaccinated.

I live in Florida, and the trend on new cases is definitely bad. The more reliable values are the 7 day average which show 15,818 new cases. I suspect the daily number is really two days of data. The lowest was June 18 with 1499 new cases (7-day avg), so an astounding 10 times increase in around 43 days.

I’ve seen similar increases in many other states including Missouri, Louisiana and Arkansas. I have not seen dramatic increases in Covid deaths, but usually these increases show up weeks after the new cases spike.

What to do? Get vaccinated for one. Accept for now tighter regulations regarding masking. Avoid large indoor gatherings where some may be unvaccinated.

Stay tuned,

Dave