The results of a Gallup poll show Trump is down in six key areas:
Majority of Americans no longer believe Trump is keeping his promises
I believe his polls will sink further as he is firing very capable people in government. Comey to me is a role model of what a good, non=partisan FBI director should be.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Trump’s story doesn’t wash. This isn’t about anything that happened in 2016. It is the Russian investigation and Trump’s involvement. I’m pretty mad.
To get himself cleared, Trump is likely going to put a patsy in charge of the FBI.. Heard yesterday from the White House, “Hey Kellyanne, you know anything about law enforcement. I think I’ve got an opening.”
I am hoping the American voters finds this firing as offensive as I do.
You can search my prior blog on James Comey.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Links:
Official letters from the White House
An Executive Order can be a temporary fix of a problem. But in Trump’s latest order, it was all for show. And all pretty dumb.
It was a quick fix for a problem that did not exist. Make up a problem, then offer a solution. Likely the fix will work.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Yes. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are scary. This has been a problem passed from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump. Problem is any easy solution, like direct military action, is only likely to make things a lot worse. Imagine a solution that everyone in the area, South Korea, Japan and China, to name a few, are strongly opposed to, and that South Korea is the likely target of retaliatory strikes. Trump ran a campaign of full of themes. Now the reality sets in. North Korea is not solved by tweets.
Kim Jong Un’s regime takes paranoia to extreme levels, maybe because their leader believes in an eventual war with the US or because it works. I believe it is the latter, because it distracts from the collapsing economy. Trump, much more than other presidents are playing right into the regime’s game of paranoia and nationalism.
Diplomacy has to be a back door, quiet process of compromise, to lift sanctions.
Washington Post contributer, Fareed Zakaria got it right:
Trump’s bluster and bravado on North Korea will only make the U.S. look weak
Stay tuned,
Dave
This international agreement was signed in April 2016, by President Obama. A short summary of the agreement is given in Wikipedia as follows:
Critics immediately charged that the agreement is really a treaty and requires 2/3 vote from the Senate to become binding. IF what the conservative Heartland Institute said was true, then Obama should have been impeached:
“It is an absolute disgrace that President Obama would assume powers found nowhere in our Constitution to sign a treaty that has never been considered by our Congress — which would reject it if given the opportunity,” said Jay Lehr, science director with the outspoken free-market group Heartland Institute. “To take such a hollow and illegal step as he ends his presidency should tarnish his legacy forever as a man who thought himself king, not president.”
So, President Trump can declare this Agreement to be a Treaty, and send it to the Senate for approval. But, he would be opting for a quiet burial in the Senate and that would be pretty obvious.
But, Trump likes Executive Orders and the agreement seems really to fall into this category because the agreement does not legally compel the US to cut back carbon emissions.
The real zinger is that three of the major coal companies (Arch, Cloud Peak, and Peabody) want the US to stay in the agreement, as they see the advantage of having a major pro-coal power “at the table.” Otherwise, European leaders will lead the show, not good for the international interests of US companies.
Pulling out of the accord will not go over well with Chinese leaders, who are aggressively cutting their own emissions. The smoke from coal burning has created a real health concern in many Chinese cities. We need Chinese cooperation desperately to reign in North Korea’s nuclear program.
Right now, our new Secretary of Energy seems most content with cleaning house, removing any global warming believers as possible. With the new, ineffective DOE, a policy change to do nothing, seems likely. I believe Trump has said he is studying the options on climate change and our commitment to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement.
The smaller countries who have signed the agreement, are likely looking to the US to help them with alternative energy sources. This doesn’t mesh well with Trump’s hyper nationalistic themes.
A meeting is scheduled for May 18, 2017 in Bonn. Four top polluters, China, India, US Japan and the EU have ratified the accord. Russia looks like the major climate change denier as it has not ratified the agreement,
List of carbon emissions by country
Does Trump really want to join Russia and be the world’s second climate change denier?
Stay tuned,
Dave
Overselling occurs. A lot of businesses do it. They promise goods and services that they may not be able to deliver. It isn’t the very prevalent overbooking that gets people riled; it is getting bumped from a flight.
However, it is a way to keep fares low, because statistically there are a significant number of no-shows. The infamous United flight with the dragging of a passenger down the aisle will likely never be repeated. Whenever they need more seats, they will simply increase the rewards until they get people to give up their seats.
Apparently, UAL had limits on what they could offer passengers and 800 dollars was the maximum the airline could offer without special authorization. One dragged passenger, and a video that went viral, instantly made every carrier to reconsider bumping policy.
A strange dynamic sets in when the airline ups the ante for seats. In the UAL case, if $800 doesn’t works, they could have up the bid to $900. What happens when 50 or more passengers want to take the deal? The airlines is suddenly in a crunch to select one additional passenger, which they have to do in a random, unbiased manner. This takes time. Remember, the plane was on the tarmac, ready to take off. What happens if they go higher? The $800 volunteers are not so happy now. Best to give the same to all volunteers. Youtube videos have a huge impact.
The overbooking situation is more likely to occur before boarding. No drama or Youtube videos at this point. It can actually be a happy moment if the airline provides enough cash or other benefits.
It was revealed that the passengers who paid the least for their seats, are the ones that are placed in the potential bumpees (yes, I made up this word) pool to be randomly selected. So, you full fair business folks flying UAL have nothing to worry about. Of course, I’m joking as passenger dragging is not about to happen at least for overbooking.
A lot of stuff doesn’t happen on major carriers, such as getting a boarding pass, only to find a passenger sitting in your seat because the airlines screwed up. These were human mistakes particularly when computer systems were down or very slow.
Bumped luggage. It happens! The airlines should offer money for your luggage to take a later flight. My wife was flying to Brazil on Christmas eve, and her flight was delayed for hours. Her baggage arrived on a later flight, about 10 hours later. It took about another 4 hours for delivery. So, I believe the delay was in loading postal shipments, so it was in their interest, to delay the passengers stuff until these shipments were loaded. Then they didn’t have enough space for luggage. I wouldn’t reveal the name of the airline, except is goes by the initials AA.
Unintended consequences and asymmetrical conflicts (you have to look up this one) are the norm. In case you’ve been off the grid, Jimmy Kimmel lost no time in mocking UAL friendly skies theme:
Perhaps next they’ll have a statue of the dragged passenger, with one hand clutching a boarding pass, surrounded by mountains of lost baggage.
Holiday travel is hell. So are the days between holidays. Bad days to travel are Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday. Equally bad are Saturday, Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.
Stay tuned,
Dave
Unemployment numbers as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were PHONY according to candidate Trump in 2016. They should excellent declines in unemployment.
All of a sudden, a positive report from the Bureau, and the numbers, according to President Trump are now accurate, and shows the success of his first month in office.
According to the New York Times:
” Mr. Spicer later quoted Mr. Trump on his faith in the report, “They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.”
Nothing has changed at the Bureau. Candidate Trump hated the statistics because it showed long term improvement in the economy. Now President Trump likes the latest numbers, so they are VERY REAL numbers.
Good Lord, how long can this go on?
See link:
Stay tuned,
Dave
The recent tweets on potential wire tapping of the Trump Towers by Obama, was shameful. Even Fox News recognized Trump’s reaction was wrong, because no president has the authority to order wiretaps. It must come from the Justice Department, and be approved through a court hearing.
“Acting presidential” means nothing is done in haste. Words are carefully chosen. You connect with the American people with verified facts and appropriate statistics. Unlike a campaign, where comments are tossed about, and then forgotten, nothing is forgotten when it comes from the US President.
The President has the FBI and Justice Department to investigate violation of the law. He has a team of experts to help him with appropriate responses.
Instead, it looks like Trump fires off another tweet, leaving his staff to find some way to frame an appropriate alternative meaning to his words. It’s a tough job because he doesn’t back down.
At this point, his statements are 50 to 70% lies according to Politifact. The most blatant lies (Pants on Fire) are at 17% and false statements are 33% resulting in 50% false statements. Add in another mostly false statements (20%) results in 70% lies. Truthful statements are rare events, with 4% in total. I’m tracking the truthful statements, and will let you know if he makes any in the next few months.
His last true statement according to Politifact
Bottom line is if it comes from Trump, and it’s not just a statement of opinion, but presented as factual information, it is more likely a lie than the truth.
Stay tuned,
Dave
The wiretapping story will backlash on Trump. Nobody knows the full story right now, just Donald’s tweets. I think the hunches from Wired got it right:
If the Feds Did Wiretap Trump Tower, It’s Not Obama Who Should Worry
If warrants were requested for surveillance, it was never leaked out during the elections. That’s the way good government should operated, as it was an ongoing investigation.
Take some notes Donald and learn.
Stay tuned,
Dave
No. He inherited a booming economy:
… Trump’s 94 million figure is vastly inflated because it includes retirees, high school students over 16, undergraduate and graduate students, stay-at-home parents, disabled people, adults who are engaged in full-time education or training — people who either wouldn’t be expected to be working or who are engaged in other worthy pursuits.
The “labor participation” numbers have been going down in part because baby boomers are retiring and mote people over 16 years old are attending school full time.
Note also:
Obama’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 75%
Obama’s mostly false, false and pants on fire = 25%
________________________________________________
Trump’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 30%
Trump’s mostly false, false and pants on fire = 70%
Just about the opposite to Obama.
Stay tuned,
Dave
I am proud to announce the publication of my book, Florida’s Citrus Canker Epidemic: Pieces of a Puzzle. It is available on Amazon.com.
There is no other book like it.
This is the story of an elusive bacterial disease, called citrus canker. In 1995, Florida declared war against citrus canker. Their war ended in year 2006. The program cost over 1.3 billion dollars and 16.5 million trees were destroyed. On January 10, 2006, the USDA announced it would no longer fund the program. The bacteria had won. Citrus canker is still very much present in Florida. Grove owner are learning to live with the disease.
You can find this book by searching Amazon.com with the search words, “Citrus Canker.”
Stay tuned,
Dave
When Trump was a candidate, he praised Wikileaks. Now he hates any organization which disseminates inside information. Leaks often give tidbits of information, so they rarely are the complete story. They allow for speculation. This is incomplete rather than fake news.
Trump attacks of the media for disseminating leaked information is dumb. It is their right. It is part of having a free press. He is right that disclosing certain classified information by insiders is illegal. But, he went way overboard. The newspapers such as the Washington Post or the New York Times, are some of the most admired in the world for in-depth reporting.
Trump will be accusing everyone except the people except the White House staff, who he carefully picked to advise him. Presidential appointees can be fired. Obviously, this was the case of General Michael Flynn, who was our National Security Adviser for a full 24 days.
As a private businessman, Donald Trump had total control over disclosures within his company. What holds businesses together, is money, namely some high paying jobs at the very top. Another words, loyalty pays and if the company is thriving, the top positions are well rewarded.
That’s now gone. And the President should man up to the job and stop whining about it.
Stay tuned,
Dave
This is the title of the leaked report on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is also it’s conclusion. It’s a pdf file and just 3 pages long.
dhs-intelligence-document-on-president-donald
If there’s a group that Trump really hates, it would be the Iranian visa holders. Of the 82 individuals convicted or killed as terrorists in the US since 2011, half were American born. The rest came from 26 different countries. Only one was Iranian born. And the report says that Iranians are more likely a threat in their own region than the US.
Stay tuned,
Dave
One of President Trump’s promises was to bring back coal mining jobs. The total mine workers in the coal industry is around 65,000 employees.down from peak of around 80,000 employees in 2011.
The production and consumption over the last 15 years look pretty similar- a rising trend then a declining trend beginning in 2008.
The Energy Information Agency of the US Department of Energy, provides a comprehensive report each year. A link to the 2016 report is provided below:
There are really no encouraging statistics within this report. Coal prices are down significantly. Virginia’s coal prices were down 20%. Productive capacity, or how much the US could produce, is definitely in decline. There is a 5% increase in productivity, or the tons of coal produced per employee- which might help the bottom line of mining companies, but further reduces employment.
US coal is used to produce electricity. The reason for the decline in coal prices, production, consumption and employment is cheaper natural gas.
EIA Update on Natural Gas Prices
The trend to more power plants using natural gas is likely to continue. The warm winter likely means less energy use. Both natural gas and coal consumption are likely to decline in the next few months.
Deregulation is likely not to change much of the basic economics. See link:
Note that in the above article, they cite 200,000 jobs lost in 2 years and I state it is closer to 15,000 jobs since 2011. My figures are strictly workers in mines, while some of the larger coal mining companies have gone out of business causing much larger job loss.
Hopefully, the employees with jobs less connected to the coal industry, can find other opportunities. Maybe in the booming solar industry- who knows
Stay tuned,
Dave
Trump has said a lot of times, he doesn’t like losing. It sure looked like he was going down in defeat in November. Every poll was against a Trump win. But, he proved them all wrong.
There are two Donalds, the winning jubilant Donald and the losing Donald. The losing Donald can be angry, mean and yes dishonest. This is his history. Happy Donald and Dark Donald.
Now, the latest salvo, is that 3 to 5 million Americans, who were here illegally voted and this is why he lost the popular vote. First, and most importantly, who cares? The rules are whoever wins the majority of the electoral vote wins the election. The election is a done deal.
The news media are thinking this is just another dumb ego stroking bit of poop from the Donald. But, they (all of them, of course) are wrong. In the last few weeks before the elections, every single poll showed he was going to lose, so the Dark Donald was preparing for losing- and it wasn’t going to pretty.
The 3 to 5 million stuff is poop, but it is left over poop from before the election. He keeps his left over poop. This is what the Dark Donald was going to throw if he lost. No graceful concession speech. He was going out like a fire ball. What did he have to lose? He was going to lump Obama and crooked Clinton into one, and that together say they stole the election. The American people were ripped off, because it was rigged.
After losing and particularly if the election was close, Trump was going to tear into Obama, and say that in the months before the election, the INS was processing documents so illegal immigrants could vote. It takes 3 years after permanent residency status to get a green card. For those who had already passed their interview, and all that was left was administrative paperwork, INS was trying to speed up this processing, so they would not be swearing in a lot of new citizens just a few days after the elections. These are immigrants who had gone through the system, paid some pretty hefty fees to INS, and were qualified to vote.
I suspect Trump had three speeches already on election night- the victory speech, the concession speech and the “this system is rigged” speech. So the 3 to 5 million illegal voters is just a bit of left over poop, which Trump just couldn’t resist using, even though he won.
Problem of course he’s the President now and he just accused 3 million people of committing crimes and has the FBI at his disposal.
Stay tuned,
Dave
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