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Covfefe

by Dave

I normally do not post emails from others, but I am making an exception in this case, as sent from Egwandabealha of North Buganda.

O how my people are so proud and honored that your esteemed President has brought to the world’s attention, our secret agricultural miracle, covfefe.  Coming straight from the digestive system of our magnificent cows, we are indeed blessed with bountiful quantities of covfefe, to grow the best corn, strawberries and tomatoes  in all of North Buganda.   I shall invite President Trump to our next Festival of Covfefe, where he may dance with us, as he did so well in Saudi Arabia.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

There will be no impeachment

by Dave

I may end up eating my words (not the first time), but from what legal experts who really don’t like Trump (Jeff Toobin),  the actions of Trump don’t arise to the level of criminal activities.   Second, given the Republican control of both House and Senate,  the bar to impeach is going to be really  high.

A direct order to stop a criminal investigation would be obstruction of justice.  Trump apparently expressed the “hope” that Comey would not continue to investigate General Flynn connection to the Russians.   It is likely in  Trump’s opinion that the whole investigation is a lot to do with nothing.   Nobody knows what was said between Trump and Comey.   The Comey memo written to himself, is his version of events.  If an investigation is being impeded by President Trump,   I would think the Director would have the obligation to report it to the Department of Justice.

Second,  Trump has been accused of sharing top secret information to the Russians.   The source of this information is a White House insider.   According to Jeff Toobin,  the President is the final arbiter on what is classified or top secret information.  So, as crazy as it might seem,  Trump is in the clear.

Democrats should not be talking about what is or isn’t an impeachable action, because it just isn’t going to happen.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

I Like Comey

by Dave

Trump’s story doesn’t wash.   This isn’t about anything that happened in 2016.   It is the Russian  investigation and Trump’s involvement.  I’m pretty mad.

To get himself cleared,  Trump is likely going to put a patsy  in charge of the FBI.. Heard yesterday from the White House,  “Hey Kellyanne, you know anything about law enforcement.  I think I’ve got an opening.”

I am hoping the American voters finds this firing as offensive as I do.

You can search my prior blog on James Comey.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Official letters from the White House

 

 

Trump’s Executive Order on Religious Freedom

by Dave

An Executive Order can be a temporary fix of a problem.  But in Trump’s latest order, it was all for show.  And all pretty dumb.

It was a quick fix for a problem that did not exist. Make up a problem, then offer a solution.  Likely the fix will work.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/04/trump-s-religious-liberty-executive-order-is-a-triumph-of-fake-news

Stay tuned,

Dave

North Korea: Running on Themes

by Dave

 

Yes. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are scary.   This has been a problem passed from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump.   Problem is any easy solution, like direct military action, is only likely to make things a lot worse.    Imagine a solution that everyone  in the area, South Korea, Japan and China, to name a few, are  strongly opposed to, and that South Korea is the likely target of retaliatory strikes.  Trump ran a campaign of full of themes.  Now the reality sets in.   North Korea is not solved by tweets.

Kim Jong Un’s regime takes paranoia to extreme levels, maybe because their leader believes in an eventual war with the US or because it works.  I believe it is the latter,  because it distracts from the collapsing economy.   Trump, much more than other presidents are playing right into the regime’s game of paranoia and nationalism.

Diplomacy has to be a back door, quiet process of compromise, to lift sanctions.

Washington Post contributer, Fareed Zakaria got it right:

Trump’s bluster and bravado on North Korea will only make the U.S. look weak

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Paris Climate Agreement

by Dave

This international agreement was signed in April 2016, by President Obama.   A short summary of the agreement is given in Wikipedia as follows:

Paris Climate Agreement

Critics immediately charged that the agreement is really a treaty and requires 2/3 vote from the Senate to become binding.   IF what  the conservative Heartland Institute said was true, then Obama should have been impeached:

“It is an absolute disgrace that President Obama would assume powers found nowhere in our Constitution to sign a treaty that has never been considered by our Congress — which would reject it if given the opportunity,” said Jay Lehr, science director with the outspoken free-market group Heartland Institute. “To take such a hollow and illegal step as he ends his presidency should tarnish his legacy forever as a man who thought himself king, not president.”

So, President Trump can declare this Agreement to be a Treaty,  and send it to the Senate for approval.   But, he would be opting for a quiet burial in the Senate and that would be pretty obvious.

But,  Trump likes Executive Orders and the agreement seems really to fall into this category because the agreement does not legally compel the US to cut back carbon emissions.

The real zinger is that three of the major coal companies (Arch, Cloud Peak, and Peabody)  want the US to stay in the agreement, as they see the advantage of having  a major pro-coal power  “at the table.”  Otherwise, European leaders will lead the show, not good for the international interests of US companies.

Pulling out of the accord will not go over well with Chinese leaders, who are aggressively cutting their own emissions.  The smoke from coal burning has created a real health concern in many Chinese cities.  We need Chinese cooperation desperately to reign in North Korea’s nuclear program.

Right now, our new Secretary of Energy seems most content with cleaning house, removing any global warming believers as possible.  With the new, ineffective DOE, a policy change to do nothing, seems likely.  I believe Trump has said he is studying the options on climate change and our commitment to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement.

The smaller countries who have signed the agreement, are likely looking to the US to help them with alternative energy sources.  This doesn’t mesh well with Trump’s hyper nationalistic themes.

A meeting is scheduled for May 18, 2017 in Bonn.   Four top polluters, China, India, US Japan and the EU have ratified the accord.    Russia looks like the major climate change denier as it has not ratified the agreement,

   List of carbon emissions by country 

Does Trump really want to join Russia and be the world’s second climate change denier?

Stay tuned,

Dave

Overbooking is good!

by Dave

Overselling occurs. A lot of businesses do it.  They promise goods and services that they may not be able to deliver.  It isn’t the very prevalent overbooking that gets people riled;  it is getting bumped from a flight.

However, it is a way to keep fares low, because statistically there are a significant number of no-shows.   The infamous United flight with the dragging of a passenger down the aisle will likely never be repeated.   Whenever they need more seats, they will simply increase the rewards until they get people to give up their seats.

Apparently, UAL had limits on what they could offer passengers and 800 dollars was the maximum the airline could offer without special authorization.   One dragged passenger, and a video that went viral,  instantly made every carrier to reconsider bumping policy.

A strange dynamic sets in when the airline ups the ante for seats.   In the UAL case, if $800 doesn’t  works,  they could have up the bid to $900.  What happens when 50 or more passengers want to take the deal?     The airlines is suddenly in a crunch to select  one additional passenger, which they have to do in a random, unbiased manner.  This takes time.  Remember, the plane was on the tarmac,   ready to take off.  What happens if they go higher?   The $800 volunteers are not so happy now.   Best to give the same to all volunteers.   Youtube videos have a huge impact.

The overbooking situation is more likely to occur before boarding.  No drama or Youtube videos at this point.  It can actually be a happy moment if the airline provides enough cash or other benefits.

It was revealed that the passengers who paid the least for their seats, are the ones that are placed in the potential bumpees (yes, I made up this word) pool to be randomly selected.  So, you full fair business folks flying UAL have nothing to worry about.  Of course, I’m joking as passenger dragging is not about to happen at least for overbooking.

A lot of stuff doesn’t happen on major carriers, such as getting a boarding pass,  only to find a passenger sitting in your seat because the airlines screwed up.   These were human mistakes particularly when computer systems were down or very slow.

Bumped luggage.  It happens!  The airlines should offer money for your luggage to take a later flight.  My wife was flying to Brazil on Christmas eve, and her flight was delayed for hours.   Her baggage arrived on a later flight, about 10 hours later.  It took about another 4 hours for delivery.   So, I believe the delay was in loading  postal  shipments, so it was in their interest, to delay the passengers stuff until these shipments were loaded.  Then they didn’t have enough space for luggage.   I wouldn’t reveal the name of the airline, except is goes by the initials AA.

Unintended consequences and asymmetrical conflicts (you have to look up this one) are the norm.  In case you’ve been off the grid, Jimmy Kimmel lost no time in mocking UAL friendly skies theme:

Mock UAL Sketch

Perhaps next they’ll have a statue of the dragged passenger, with one hand clutching a boarding pass, surrounded by mountains of lost baggage.

Holiday travel is hell.  So are the days between holidays. Bad days to travel are Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday.  Equally bad  are Saturday, Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How long can this go on?

by Dave

Unemployment numbers as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were PHONY according to candidate Trump in 2016.  They should excellent declines in unemployment.

All of a sudden,  a positive report from the Bureau, and the numbers, according to President Trump are now accurate, and shows the success of his first month in office.

According to the New York Times:

” Mr. Spicer later quoted Mr. Trump on his faith in the report, “They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.”

Nothing has changed at the Bureau.  Candidate Trump hated the statistics because it showed long term improvement in the economy.  Now President Trump likes the latest numbers, so they are VERY REAL numbers.

Good Lord, how long can this go on?

See link:

New York Times article

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Acting Presidential

by Dave

The recent tweets on potential wire tapping of the Trump Towers by Obama, was shameful. Even Fox News recognized Trump’s reaction was wrong, because no president has the authority to order wiretaps.  It must come from the Justice Department, and be approved through a court hearing.

“Acting presidential” means nothing is done in haste.  Words are carefully chosen. You connect with the American people with verified facts and appropriate statistics.   Unlike a campaign, where comments are tossed about, and then forgotten, nothing is forgotten when it comes from the US President.

The President has the FBI and Justice Department to investigate violation of the law.  He has a team of experts to help him with appropriate responses.

Instead, it looks like Trump fires off another tweet, leaving his staff to find some way to frame an appropriate alternative meaning to his words.  It’s a tough job because he doesn’t back down.

At this point, his statements are 50 to 70% lies according to Politifact.  The most blatant lies (Pants on Fire) are at 17% and false statements are 33% resulting in 50% false statements.  Add in another mostly false statements (20%) results in 70% lies.  Truthful statements are rare events, with 4% in total.  I’m tracking the truthful statements, and will let you know if he makes any in the next few months.

Politifact on Trump

His last true statement according to Politifact 

Bottom line is if it comes from Trump, and it’s not just a statement of opinion, but presented as  factual information,  it is more likely a lie than the truth.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Educating the Donald

by Dave

The wiretapping story will backlash on Trump.  Nobody knows the full story right now, just Donald’s tweets.   I think the hunches from Wired got it right:

If the Feds Did Wiretap Trump Tower, It’s Not Obama Who Should Worry

If warrants were requested for surveillance,  it was never leaked out during the elections.  That’s the way good government should operated, as it was an ongoing investigation.

Take some notes Donald and learn.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Did Trump inherit a mess?

by Dave

No.  He inherited a booming economy:

Politifact website

… Trump’s 94 million figure is vastly inflated because it includes retirees, high school students over 16, undergraduate and graduate students, stay-at-home parents, disabled people, adults who are engaged in full-time education or training — people who either wouldn’t be expected to be working or who are engaged in other worthy pursuits.

The “labor participation” numbers have been going down in part because  baby boomers are retiring and mote people over 16 years old are attending school full time.

Note also:

Obama’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 75%

Obama’s  mostly false, false and pants on fire = 25%

________________________________________________

Trump’s true, mostly true and half true statements = 30%

Trump’s  mostly false, false and pants on fire = 70%

Just about the opposite to Obama.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Citrus Canker

by Dave

I am proud to announce the publication of my book, Florida’s Citrus Canker Epidemic: Pieces of a Puzzle.  It is available on Amazon.com.

There is no other book like it.

This is the story of an elusive bacterial disease, called citrus canker.  In 1995, Florida declared war against citrus canker.  Their war ended in year 2006.  The program cost over 1.3 billion dollars and 16.5 million trees were destroyed.  On January 10, 2006, the USDA announced it would no longer fund the program. The bacteria had won.  Citrus canker is still very much present in Florida. Grove owner are learning to live with the disease.

You can find this book by searching Amazon.com with the  search words, “Citrus Canker.”

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Leakers

by Dave

When Trump was a candidate, he praised Wikileaks.  Now he hates any organization which disseminates inside information.   Leaks often give tidbits of information,  so they rarely are the complete story.  They allow for speculation.   This is incomplete rather than fake news.

Trump attacks of the media for disseminating leaked information is dumb.   It is their right.  It is part of having a free press.    He is right that disclosing certain classified information by insiders is illegal.  But,  he went way overboard. The newspapers  such as the Washington Post or the New York Times, are some of the most admired in the world for in-depth reporting.

Trump will be accusing everyone except the people except the White House staff, who he carefully picked to advise him.  Presidential appointees can be fired.  Obviously, this was the case of General Michael Flynn, who was our National Security Adviser for a full 24 days.

As a private businessman,  Donald Trump had total control over disclosures within his company.  What holds businesses together, is money, namely some high paying jobs at the very top.  Another words, loyalty pays and if the company is thriving, the top positions are well rewarded.

That’s now gone. And the President should man up to the job and stop whining about it.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Citizenship is an unlikely indicator of terrorist threat to the US

by Dave

Citizenship is an unlikely indicator of terrorist threat to the US

This is the title of the leaked report on the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)  is also it’s conclusion.  It’s a pdf file and just 3 pages long.

dhs-intelligence-document-on-president-donald

If there’s a group that Trump really hates, it would be the Iranian visa holders.  Of the 82 individuals  convicted or killed as terrorists in the US since 2011, half were American born. The rest came from 26 different countries.    Only one was Iranian born.   And the report says that Iranians are more likely a threat in their own region than the US.

Stay tuned,

Dave