Minimum Mandatory Sentences

by Dave

Can dedicated conservative Republican and liberal Democrats find common ground?

The answer is yes, and that is opposition to Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ memo, directing Federal prosecutors to pursue the most serious possible charges in all criminal cases regardless of the circumstances.  Research has shown that longer sentences in combating drug related crimes was ineffective, and more emphasis should be placed on rehabilitation. The announcement should have receive more notice, but the Russian probe was the headline story.

Sessions memo drew immediate opposition from  the ACLU,  Freedom Works,  Charles Koch (billionaire and strong conservative Republican),  Mike Lee, the conservative Republican senator from Utah and Rand Paul.   You just don’t see this unity often!

The timing of the release was a bit crazy. But it was not going to get as much attention given what else was going on.

I think Rand Paul’s comments are worth reading:

Session’s Sentencing Plan Would Ruin Lives

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

There will be no impeachment

by Dave

I may end up eating my words (not the first time), but from what legal experts who really don’t like Trump (Jeff Toobin),  the actions of Trump don’t arise to the level of criminal activities.   Second, given the Republican control of both House and Senate,  the bar to impeach is going to be really  high.

A direct order to stop a criminal investigation would be obstruction of justice.  Trump apparently expressed the “hope” that Comey would not continue to investigate General Flynn connection to the Russians.   It is likely in  Trump’s opinion that the whole investigation is a lot to do with nothing.   Nobody knows what was said between Trump and Comey.   The Comey memo written to himself, is his version of events.  If an investigation is being impeded by President Trump,   I would think the Director would have the obligation to report it to the Department of Justice.

Second,  Trump has been accused of sharing top secret information to the Russians.   The source of this information is a White House insider.   According to Jeff Toobin,  the President is the final arbiter on what is classified or top secret information.  So, as crazy as it might seem,  Trump is in the clear.

Democrats should not be talking about what is or isn’t an impeachable action, because it just isn’t going to happen.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

Trump’s Problems

by Dave

It isn’t the media.  Every president has to deal with unfavorable commentary.  Obama had Fox News and a massive conservative radio and print media which hated him.

It isn’t leakers.    If the story inside the White House is very different from the public statements, this news gets out. People talk.

It isn’t the Democrats, now officially labeled the “obstructionists.”   They have the right to give an alternative viewpoint.   The give and take between Republicans and Democrats was necessary to pass many important laws.  This helps out government from being too liberal or conservative.

Trump’s scandals at the core are basically poor decisions.  Too much done spontaneously, because he believes he doesn’t need others.  And his ego is frightening.  It started with embarrassing comments made at the CIA Headquarters  on how big the crowd was at the inauguration,  then the disastrous travel ban leading to the firing of the Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates, then to the firing of Comey,  sharing to top secrets with the Russians and the General Flynn scandal.

Trump campaigned non-stop, smearing Hillary Clinton as a crook, for her mishandling of emails and the attack of the embassy in Benghazi.   Plus, everything one could find in the tabloid press.

And we are only about a third of the way of the first of four years. Kind of scary.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Thank you horrible, horrible people

by Dave

All governments and businesses are inherently closed and dishonest organizations. This is not being negative, because  I’m not saying they are closed and dishonest all the time, in every aspect.  Just occasionally when something goes very wrong.   The public wants to know why VW manipulated their emission tests and how stupid the EPA could have been to accept these tests. Or how could  Wells Fargo opened up millions of fake accounts.   We want to know  the details of how VA  military  hospitals were able to cheated the system in reporting the time veterans had to wait for their urgent medical needs.  Or the IRS scandal where non=profit organizations  were systematically targeted if their  applications contained certain keywords, almost always related to conservative causes.  We want to know what was hit when the bombs dropped in Yemen missed their target under Trump.  Or when a Children’s hospital was bombed under Obama.    And we want to know how many times, Obama took vacations to go golfing.  Same with Trump.   And the same with the next president.

Another words, we want dirt.  It is our right.   Freedom of the press is how we keep our government and businesses honest.

Trump has been blasting  unfavorable media commentary to a new level.    Much of his problems stem from the way he portrays events.   The dishonesty of reasons behind Comey’s firing is a case in point, which I and others have covered enough. Commentary which blends the news with insight  is  either incredible, amazing, terrific or despicable, horrible, dishonest  or totally fake.   When the mother of all bombs was dropped on Afghanistan, CNN brought in a group of  military experts and  all were in full support of Trump’s action.  No problem with CNN.  But after Trump  said more had been done to defeat ISIS in Afghanistan in 8 weeks of his administration  than 8 years under Obama, one former military expert described that as a highly derogatory statement  to those serving in  armed forces.

He can’t be satisfied with his own accomplishments; he has to show he is better than Obama and Democrats.    His wild exaggerations are quickly picked up by dedicated  reporters.    Case in point, the Obama administration wiretapped the Trump towers.  Director Comey replied there is no evidence of this.   Should Comey have said, “No comment, it is under investigation” ? Would he have score some loyalty points?

Trump  stated in his latest interview with Judge Jeanine Pirro, that she is a fair and balanced reporter as she tossed a number of  softball questions at Trump.    I turned the channel at this point.  She is known for her non-stop rants against Hillary Clinton:

 Hillary, snap out of it,” Pirro said. “I’m tired of going through this with you. You’re a two-time loser who lost because you were a lousy candidate, you didn’t have a message, you lied every time you opened your mouth; you didn’t know what states to campaign in, you put our national security at risk with your amateur email setup, you were in a foundation that was nothing more than an organized criminal enterprise parading as a charity, four men died under your watch as you lied about a video, and there [were] a billion dollars missing from the State Department when you left. And I could go on and on, but I just don’t have the time. So, stop with the poor me nonsense. We’ve had it with you Clintons always claiming victimhood. The two of you haven’t followed the rules since the day you both showed up in your bell bottoms in Arkansas.”

Imagine if she said the same words to Trump, “You lied every time you opened your mouth,” Wow, end of interview, I sure. I watch Fox News for the news segments, not the commentary. I would not watch her show as too much tabloid gossip (Hillary steals a billion from the State Department).   Gee,  wouldn’t you think there would be an investigation?

Reporters are not going to get the straight story from government and inside information is fundamental to full reporting.    Piecing together the truth requires getting facts from people on the inside.   Leaking was given high praise by candidate Trump, and now widely condemned by President Trump.  Every person he fires from government can talk freely about their experiences.

Keep up the good work you horrible, horrible reporters from the mainstream media.    America needs you, for this president and all future presidents.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Day 3 after Comey’s Firing

by Dave

Trump’s very short notice on the firing, left many thinking the Sessions/ Rosenstein letters from the Dept of Justice was the pretense, rather than the reason for Comey’s firing.

The leaks from the White House are taken far more seriously than Trump’s notice, because they make sense.  Comey wasn’t political.  He was excessively truthful, experienced  and articulate.  These were not redeeming qualities in the mind of the President.

Why are the two letters from the Department of Justice considerable laughable?   Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein’s letter states two reasons for firing Comey all stemming from his July 5, 2016 press conference.  First was that he usurped his authority by the public announcement clearing Clinton of criminal wrongdoing.   Didn’t stop Trump,  fellow Republicans in Congress, and a half dozen commentators on Fox News from slamming Clinton and calling her a crook for the next 5 months.  In fact, Trump was attacking AG Loretta Lynch for her meeting with Bill Clinton on her plane.  Trump  wanted   to show the American people, that both the FBI and  DOJ could not be trusted for a fair evaluation of the Clinton investigation.

Rosenstein did not say that Comey broke any rule or law, only a tradition not to comment on cases until there is a review by the Justice Department.  Comey told the Senate Committee that he decided to come public after there were very unique circumstances. His decision was  related to  concern for the public’s perception of the DOJ’s impartiality.

That public perception of FBI/DOJ  cover up  was created and promoted by  Trump, and many Republicans in Congress.   Many in Congress were calling for an independent Special Investigator which would delay the conclusions of the investigation for months.  FBI/DOJ cover up  went in high gear on June 30, 2016  with the chance meeting between Lynch and Bill Clinton, on a Lynch’s private plane.  Trump accused AG Loretta Lynch of lying when she said they just talked about golf, grandchildren and other pleasantries.  He said it was BS and it was really about the email investigation.

Clinton/ Lynch Chance Meeting /  CNN  Comments

 

Now,  the second of Rosenstein’s reasons is really an over the top, piece of absurdity, only a lawyer could make.   He attacks  Comey’s derogatory comments about Hillary Clinton.  Under a normal environment, the FBI must be very careful of what is said.    However, this was hardly a normal environment, as the public was being informed every time they turned on television, that Hillary was either completely innocent or totally guilty of criminal activity.

It was great to have the FBI Director Comey at the end of his investigation to publically state to the public what exactly the FBI had discovered and had not discovered.   To do less, would have been concealment of facts to the public.  Either Clinton or Trump was going to be President, and had Comey delayed what had been finally concluded, even for one day,  would have given the public the impression of a cover up.

Of course, the real benefactor of Attorney’s derogatory  comment, was candidate Trump, who for the next six months would lamblast Clinton for her extremely reckless handling of the emails.  It is laughable that Trump would fire an FBI Directory, who at least in this aspect, helped him immensely become elected.

Comey had two messages for the American public in July 5, 2016.  The first was that Clinton was wrong in setting up an independent server for her email, and second, this activity was not at the level  of wrong doing that would be considered criminal.   The Department of Justice could have overruled Comey’s conclusion.  In fact, the DOJ has the FBI file, and they could always press charges.

So, forget this Sessions/ Rosenstein letter.    Trump never made much of it.    Comey was too straight forward, too honest, too articulate and too accurate.  No marketing skills whatsoever.  That’s what I liked about Comey.

Now,  Trump is searching for that one individual with less integrity, and more loyalty, and will still be approved by the Senate as Director of the FBI.  Good luck!

The firing  was, and still is about the Russian investigation.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

I Like Comey

by Dave

Trump’s story doesn’t wash.   This isn’t about anything that happened in 2016.   It is the Russian  investigation and Trump’s involvement.  I’m pretty mad.

To get himself cleared,  Trump is likely going to put a patsy  in charge of the FBI.. Heard yesterday from the White House,  “Hey Kellyanne, you know anything about law enforcement.  I think I’ve got an opening.”

I am hoping the American voters finds this firing as offensive as I do.

You can search my prior blog on James Comey.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Official letters from the White House

 

 

Trump’s Executive Order on Religious Freedom

by Dave

An Executive Order can be a temporary fix of a problem.  But in Trump’s latest order, it was all for show.  And all pretty dumb.

It was a quick fix for a problem that did not exist. Make up a problem, then offer a solution.  Likely the fix will work.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/04/trump-s-religious-liberty-executive-order-is-a-triumph-of-fake-news

Stay tuned,

Dave

North Korea: Running on Themes

by Dave

 

Yes. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are scary.   This has been a problem passed from Clinton to Bush to Obama and now to Trump.   Problem is any easy solution, like direct military action, is only likely to make things a lot worse.    Imagine a solution that everyone  in the area, South Korea, Japan and China, to name a few, are  strongly opposed to, and that South Korea is the likely target of retaliatory strikes.  Trump ran a campaign of full of themes.  Now the reality sets in.   North Korea is not solved by tweets.

Kim Jong Un’s regime takes paranoia to extreme levels, maybe because their leader believes in an eventual war with the US or because it works.  I believe it is the latter,  because it distracts from the collapsing economy.   Trump, much more than other presidents are playing right into the regime’s game of paranoia and nationalism.

Diplomacy has to be a back door, quiet process of compromise, to lift sanctions.

Washington Post contributer, Fareed Zakaria got it right:

Trump’s bluster and bravado on North Korea will only make the U.S. look weak

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Paris Climate Agreement

by Dave

This international agreement was signed in April 2016, by President Obama.   A short summary of the agreement is given in Wikipedia as follows:

Paris Climate Agreement

Critics immediately charged that the agreement is really a treaty and requires 2/3 vote from the Senate to become binding.   IF what  the conservative Heartland Institute said was true, then Obama should have been impeached:

“It is an absolute disgrace that President Obama would assume powers found nowhere in our Constitution to sign a treaty that has never been considered by our Congress — which would reject it if given the opportunity,” said Jay Lehr, science director with the outspoken free-market group Heartland Institute. “To take such a hollow and illegal step as he ends his presidency should tarnish his legacy forever as a man who thought himself king, not president.”

So, President Trump can declare this Agreement to be a Treaty,  and send it to the Senate for approval.   But, he would be opting for a quiet burial in the Senate and that would be pretty obvious.

But,  Trump likes Executive Orders and the agreement seems really to fall into this category because the agreement does not legally compel the US to cut back carbon emissions.

The real zinger is that three of the major coal companies (Arch, Cloud Peak, and Peabody)  want the US to stay in the agreement, as they see the advantage of having  a major pro-coal power  “at the table.”  Otherwise, European leaders will lead the show, not good for the international interests of US companies.

Pulling out of the accord will not go over well with Chinese leaders, who are aggressively cutting their own emissions.  The smoke from coal burning has created a real health concern in many Chinese cities.  We need Chinese cooperation desperately to reign in North Korea’s nuclear program.

Right now, our new Secretary of Energy seems most content with cleaning house, removing any global warming believers as possible.  With the new, ineffective DOE, a policy change to do nothing, seems likely.  I believe Trump has said he is studying the options on climate change and our commitment to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement.

The smaller countries who have signed the agreement, are likely looking to the US to help them with alternative energy sources.  This doesn’t mesh well with Trump’s hyper nationalistic themes.

A meeting is scheduled for May 18, 2017 in Bonn.   Four top polluters, China, India, US Japan and the EU have ratified the accord.    Russia looks like the major climate change denier as it has not ratified the agreement,

   List of carbon emissions by country 

Does Trump really want to join Russia and be the world’s second climate change denier?

Stay tuned,

Dave

A Seat at the Table for the Devil

by Dave

The Paris Climate Agreement was considered a major breakthrough by most environmentalists.  The US was e in a leadership role recognizing  carbon emissions reductions requires international agreements, particularly from Brazil, India and China.

Trump vigorously campaigned against the Paris  Climate Agreement.   He said repeatedly the Agreement  was against our national interest, and was a job killing/ coal industry destruction plan.  The Democrats were trying to put the coal industry out of business.

Now, two of the largest coal companies,  Peabody and Cloud Peak are urging Trump to break his promises and stay in the Paris Climate Agreement.     Murray Energy,  a private company which bills itself as America’s largest coal company, wants Trump to pull out.  Robert Murray was at the signing of the Executive Orders to rescind the Clean Power regulations.

The reasons to stay in, is to keep EU leaders from taking control and setting tight international  environmental standards on the burning of coal.    This would hurt US export of coal, which declined by 23% in 2015.  The 2016 figures have not yet been released, but I don’t expect any better numbers. Our exports are around 74 million short tons.  Major declines in exports were from UK, Italy and South Korea in 2015.

It is also quoted in the article below that pulling out of the Accords might affect World Bank funding for international coal projects, which would hurt only the very large coal companies. Most of the coal companies operate only in the US.   Peabody coal owns coal  mines in Australia.  It may be there is concern with World Bank financing new coal generating plants.  Being part of the Accords can give the major platform to promote “clean coal technology.”

US Coal Companies ask Trump to stick with Paris Climate Deal

Trump’s campaign rode on Republican rhetoric and the highly simplistic theme of  America First.   The most pro-coal industry president we ever had, may end up doing more harm than good to his supporters.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

Overbooking is good!

by Dave

Overselling occurs. A lot of businesses do it.  They promise goods and services that they may not be able to deliver.  It isn’t the very prevalent overbooking that gets people riled;  it is getting bumped from a flight.

However, it is a way to keep fares low, because statistically there are a significant number of no-shows.   The infamous United flight with the dragging of a passenger down the aisle will likely never be repeated.   Whenever they need more seats, they will simply increase the rewards until they get people to give up their seats.

Apparently, UAL had limits on what they could offer passengers and 800 dollars was the maximum the airline could offer without special authorization.   One dragged passenger, and a video that went viral,  instantly made every carrier to reconsider bumping policy.

A strange dynamic sets in when the airline ups the ante for seats.   In the UAL case, if $800 doesn’t  works,  they could have up the bid to $900.  What happens when 50 or more passengers want to take the deal?     The airlines is suddenly in a crunch to select  one additional passenger, which they have to do in a random, unbiased manner.  This takes time.  Remember, the plane was on the tarmac,   ready to take off.  What happens if they go higher?   The $800 volunteers are not so happy now.   Best to give the same to all volunteers.   Youtube videos have a huge impact.

The overbooking situation is more likely to occur before boarding.  No drama or Youtube videos at this point.  It can actually be a happy moment if the airline provides enough cash or other benefits.

It was revealed that the passengers who paid the least for their seats, are the ones that are placed in the potential bumpees (yes, I made up this word) pool to be randomly selected.  So, you full fair business folks flying UAL have nothing to worry about.  Of course, I’m joking as passenger dragging is not about to happen at least for overbooking.

A lot of stuff doesn’t happen on major carriers, such as getting a boarding pass,  only to find a passenger sitting in your seat because the airlines screwed up.   These were human mistakes particularly when computer systems were down or very slow.

Bumped luggage.  It happens!  The airlines should offer money for your luggage to take a later flight.  My wife was flying to Brazil on Christmas eve, and her flight was delayed for hours.   Her baggage arrived on a later flight, about 10 hours later.  It took about another 4 hours for delivery.   So, I believe the delay was in loading  postal  shipments, so it was in their interest, to delay the passengers stuff until these shipments were loaded.  Then they didn’t have enough space for luggage.   I wouldn’t reveal the name of the airline, except is goes by the initials AA.

Unintended consequences and asymmetrical conflicts (you have to look up this one) are the norm.  In case you’ve been off the grid, Jimmy Kimmel lost no time in mocking UAL friendly skies theme:

Mock UAL Sketch

Perhaps next they’ll have a statue of the dragged passenger, with one hand clutching a boarding pass, surrounded by mountains of lost baggage.

Holiday travel is hell.  So are the days between holidays. Bad days to travel are Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday.  Equally bad  are Saturday, Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coal Companies and Jobs

by Dave

For those who watch Jim Cramer’s Mad Money show, one might thing the coal producers would be the perfect “Trump stock” as the EPA is set to reverse course on air pollution standard regulations, enacted during the Obama era.

But coal stocks are not doing well at least in the last 3 months.  Since the beginning of 2017, Arch Coal (ARCH) is down 16% and Cloud Peak Energy (CLD) is down 27%.

We have plenty of coal resources, but declining demand.  See prior post, “Coal Craziness” for more details with links.   The decline in employment over the last 70 years or so, is due to a high level of mechanization in the mines as well as less demand for coal.  The electric producers will use the lowest cost fuel, and natural gas is a very competitive alternative to coal.

I suggested in my last post, that coal miners might be able to retrain for the more lucrative area of the manufacturing of  solar energy photo-voltaic panels.  A recent university study suggests this is possible, and the benefits would be enormous:

Coal to solar transition

The coal industry is not disappearing (sorry Al Gore) but the solar energy industry is likely to be booming in the next 5 to 10 years.

Investing in solar energy has been a bumpy ride.   I would never think “green energy” and Trump policies go together.  But based on  year to date, investing in a solar power fund  (KWT)  would have made about 10%, better than the market average of 6%.    Pulling out the international agreements to reduce fossil fuel emissions, and subsidies for the solar industry are among the worst plans of the Trump administration.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

How long can this go on?

by Dave

Unemployment numbers as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, were PHONY according to candidate Trump in 2016.  They should excellent declines in unemployment.

All of a sudden,  a positive report from the Bureau, and the numbers, according to President Trump are now accurate, and shows the success of his first month in office.

According to the New York Times:

” Mr. Spicer later quoted Mr. Trump on his faith in the report, “They may have been phony in the past, but it’s very real now.”

Nothing has changed at the Bureau.  Candidate Trump hated the statistics because it showed long term improvement in the economy.  Now President Trump likes the latest numbers, so they are VERY REAL numbers.

Good Lord, how long can this go on?

See link:

New York Times article

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Acting Presidential

by Dave

The recent tweets on potential wire tapping of the Trump Towers by Obama, was shameful. Even Fox News recognized Trump’s reaction was wrong, because no president has the authority to order wiretaps.  It must come from the Justice Department, and be approved through a court hearing.

“Acting presidential” means nothing is done in haste.  Words are carefully chosen. You connect with the American people with verified facts and appropriate statistics.   Unlike a campaign, where comments are tossed about, and then forgotten, nothing is forgotten when it comes from the US President.

The President has the FBI and Justice Department to investigate violation of the law.  He has a team of experts to help him with appropriate responses.

Instead, it looks like Trump fires off another tweet, leaving his staff to find some way to frame an appropriate alternative meaning to his words.  It’s a tough job because he doesn’t back down.

At this point, his statements are 50 to 70% lies according to Politifact.  The most blatant lies (Pants on Fire) are at 17% and false statements are 33% resulting in 50% false statements.  Add in another mostly false statements (20%) results in 70% lies.  Truthful statements are rare events, with 4% in total.  I’m tracking the truthful statements, and will let you know if he makes any in the next few months.

Politifact on Trump

His last true statement according to Politifact 

Bottom line is if it comes from Trump, and it’s not just a statement of opinion, but presented as  factual information,  it is more likely a lie than the truth.

Stay tuned,

Dave