Donald Trump

US Unemployment

by Dave

Donald Trump says we shouldn’t believe US unemployment rates  is 5%.  He says the unemployment rate is really  around 20%.  The average investor knows 20%  is very evident with massive foreclosures and businesses closing up. The stock market is destroyed by even 10% unemployment.

The highest level of unemployment in the last 67 years has been 10.8% during Reagan’s administration. Many economic events occurring during Nixon and Carter’s administrations, likely contributed to this high rate.  Oil prices tend to go down with unemployment.  In the last 4 months, oil prices have been slowly moving up even with an oversupply situation.

Trump is quoted as saying:

The official jobless figure is “statistically devised to make politicians — and in particular presidents — look good.”

Unemployment rates are determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They have been estimating unemployment on a monthly basis since 1948.  Now, with the internet, you can get all the BLS   monthly estimates from 1948:

Unemployment Rates

The unemployment estimates are done by career government employees with the objective of obtaining the best estimate of unemployment in the country.  A 5% unemployment rate sounds good, unless you live in a neighborhood where most of your neighbors are unemployed.  The 5% unemployment is a nationwide value,  and there are large variations depending on age and trade or educational skills.

There are other measures of  unemployment statistics calculated by the BLS.  The BLS has a budget of 618 million dollars and has 2,500 employees.

The BLS data are used by economists and financial analysts around the world. In  addition to the unemployment rate, they provide estimates of the Payroll Employment,  Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI),   Productivity,  US Import Index  and US Export Index.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

Tell it like it isn’t Trump

by Dave

 

 

The worst of the worst:

American Muslims celebrated 9/11 by the thousands.

Obama is sending Syrian refugees to Republican states.

Trump said: “Refugees are pouring into our great country from Syria. We don’t even know who they are. They could be ISIS. They could be anybody.”

African-Americans are responsible for the overwhelming majority of murders of white people in the U.S.

The one I heard him say was:

China is the big winner in the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership.

And I was thinking that the TPP doesn’t include China.  Finally, Rand Paul corrected Trump.

Donald Trump’s Lies (so far!)

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Why the polls are wrong?

by Dave

Trump and Hillary are leading in the poll.  Carson on the Republican side and Sanders on the Democratic side, are close seconds. Now, we are a year away from the election, and a lot will change.  Even a week before the election, with all the massive data gathered, the experts may be wrong.  Why?

  1. The proportion of people favoring one candidate or another changes.  So,  polls become less related to the overall population with time and events.  One particular event is when a candidate drops out of the race.
  2. There is a significant undecided group or people only vaguely familiar with the candidates.

The polls generally are trying to find out who will win in the primaries not the election.  When you hear that Trump is 5% above everyone else, it is with registered Republicans.   Another problem is polls ask too many questions, and people will at some point, get tired of responding.  Imagine pollsters reading off a list of 16 candidates and then asking whoever has agreed to a survey, which one is their favorite, or second favorite, or who they would not vote for in any case.  They may say they like Jindal, because the sound of his name, or Trump because he is so well known.  They are not seriously going to vote for these people.

So, how much more agony until we know which two candidates we have to choose from?  It’s a good question.  From the party’s perspective,  it would be nice to channel the maximum amount of contributions to just one candidate.  I’ve heard estimates of April to June 2016 for the final decision.   It is well decided before the primary, so the nominating conventions are just  big pageants, promoting a single candidate.

Now, the job of the pollsters should be in theory easier after the conventions,  as they have only a 50% chance of picking the wrong candidate to win.   Also, by this time,  the general platforms  of each party are well defined, so the undecided or poorly informed groups should be smaller.

All attention will be on the swing states. Candidates will work the hardest in the swing states where the polls say they are lagging.   Thus, while the polls attempt to identify who is ahead in the half dozen key states, the candidates frustrate this effort by pulling out all stops to improve their numbers.  Television plays a huge role.  Huge numbers of people polled does not necessarily translate into better predictions, because it takes time to poll many people and in that period of time, people are changing their opinions.

So, if you want to shut all this stuff out for the next 8 months- I don’t blame you.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

Who lost the Republican debates?

by Dave

The truth could get a word in edge-wise.  Fiorina, Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz and  Christie told lies during the debate.

But, among Republicans, Trump leads the group.  I guess it is particularly egregious when a candidate is asked why he said something, and the response is that it was never said, then continues on a different topic.  Or make a claim, when the opposite can be proven.  Trump: “I am the only person in either campaign that’s self-funding. I’m putting up 100 percent of my own money.”   Just not true. Factcheck.org:  “Trump denied ever criticizing Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, as well as Marco Rubio, with regard to the H-1B visa program. But he actually did so — in his very own immigration plan on his own website.”Politifact.com  fact checking of Trump in categories of true, mostly true and half true is 15% in total.   Obama scores 75% and Hillary Clinton 81%.  Both Obama and Clinton had many more facts checked.

Fact checking the debates

Trump’s Record

Stay tuned,

Dave

Winning again

by Dave

“Make America Great”

Trump’s theme.   Listen closely, it is more getting what we want as a country and the hell with everyone else.  You don’t tell a football team, to cut deals with the other team.

But, getting things done, whether passing bills in Congress or negotiating with other countries overseas,  it is a slow process to search for common ground and compromise.   Republicans, if they are going to solve problems,  they’ve got to work out solutions with Democrats.

It’s the big problems that require long term collaboration.    If Obama wants to get get North Korea to stop its aggressive nuclear weapons program,  then he’s got to get help from China and Russia.

Similarly with global warming.  It does exist and will require intense negotiations with hundreds of countries  to reduce carbon emissions.

Trump thought it was crazy that it took 18 months to work out a deal with Iran.   He’s not used to working with 5 other countries, with all the  complexities and the UN involvement.  He’s a one-on-one guy,  with here’s the deal, do you want it or not?   If it’s a hotel or golf course, he can walk away from a deal, with a “come back when you’re ready”  attitude.

Problem is no Republican can get on Fox News, and talk about compromising with Democrats, without looking like traitors to conservatism.  Even worse if they talk about collaborating with China and Russia on issues such as global warming and terrorism.    The big problems will not be solved by Republicans or Democrats, it will be solved by governments working around the world on common objectives.

Make America great by understanding the need for: compromise,  collaboration and diplomacy.   It is not just America will benefit because Iran is blocked from gaining nuclear weapons.  It will be the world that is great.

Stay tuned,

David Lord

 

Who not to vote for (Republican candidates only)

by Dave

Rule #1:  Don’t vote for someone who has never held a single elected or appointed position in government.  

So, rule #1 means forget Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Donald Trump.

Ok.  I’m in favor of fresh blood, but not that fresh.  Donald Trump can sell.  He’s been selling his whole life.  If you put up a luxury condominium, you have to sell it for top price- and this is what Trump has doing for the last about 30 years.   These days,  he pushes Trump  brand.

All I hear from Trump is marketing.  Great marketing and maybe it’s enough for domestic consumption.  He isn’t capable of building international cooperative agreements.  He’s thinks way  too much in terms of power relationships as dividing the world into friends and enemies.   This was the great Bush/Cheney failure.

Carly Fiorina was CEO from 1999 to 2005.  The board fired her when  HP stock plummeted after  the takeover of Compaq.  Arianna Packard wrote:

“I know a little bit about Carly Fiorina, having watched her almost destroy the company my grandfather founded,” she wrote.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-things-to-know-about-carly-fiorina/

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-07/fiorina-s-debate-performance-invites-new-scrutiny-of-hp-tenure

Dr. Carson is admired as a superb physician.  He became a Republican in 2014 and has no experience in any elected or appointed position.

He would make a terrific professor of medicine or preacher, but not the necessary experience for US President.

So cross off Trump, Fiorina and Carson,  right now, as unqualified.

Stay tuned,

David Lord