Iran Deal

The American who did not return

by Dave

Robert Levinson did not come home with the rest of the released  prisoners from Iran.  His family has been on a number of stations, including CNN and Fox.  People are suddenly interested in those Obama didn’t get released from Iran.

His case is quite different from the other Americans. In Mr. Levinson’s case, the leaders in  Iran say they don’t know where Mr. Levinson is.  They deny having any involvement with his disappearance.  Hence, it is difficult to negotiate for the release of a missing person.

I’ve combed the internet looking at what could have happen to Mr. Levinson.  Is there proof that Mr. Levinson is alive?   Honestly, I really hate to say this but the evidence is weak.  But, the family believes strongly that he is in fact, still alive and imprisoned in Iran.  They believe the Iranian officials are lying when they deny any knowledge of his whereabouts.  Their hope increased as the Iran deal was negotiated, and hope Mr. Levinson would be”found” and returned to the US as part of the negotiations.

There have been two photographs of Mr. Levinson, received by his family.  It is possible that these are fakes.  It is terrible that anyone could intentionally inflict more pain on the family by creating fake photos. But there are all sorts of very weird people in this country.

The proof that Mr. Levinson went to Iran in year 2007 is rock solid.  He was staying on Kirk Island which is part of Iran.  His signature on a check out bill, dated March 9, 2007 from a hotel in Kirk Island.  It was reported in the Iranian state  run PressTV  on April 4, 2007 that he had been take into custody on March 9, 2007 and would be released shortly.  His family has confirmed that his name does not appear on any flight manifests leaving Kirk Island.   This is where the trail goes cold.   And it’s been cold for nearly 9 years.

Unlike the other prisoners,  Iran has never accused Mr. Levinson of doing anything wrong.  In fact, when members of his family went to Kirk Island in December 2007,  they say the Iranian officials treated them well.

There are a lot more details on Mr. Levinson’s trip,  which had been summarize in Wikipedia:

Wikipedia- Robert Levinson

His family has created a website,  with many links to news media stories:

Help Bob Levinson Website

It is just possible that  Iranians just might be telling the truth.  Anyone who has knowledge of Mr. Levinson’s whereabouts, can make a quick 5 million dollars, courtesy of the FBI.

Of course, the news media has jumped all over the prisoner release and Mr. Levinson’s case.   Republican candidates like Marco Rubio has widely condemned the prisoner swap, as putting American’s imperil.  I guess the idea is that a president of any country can just scoop up a few Americans, and negotiate with the White House to get their countrymen released as part of an exchange.  It is pretty silly, as most of the foreigners in our prisons are people their own governments want to be released.

Travel always carries some risk, and in general, more care has to be taken in a number of countries.  I happen to have some experience with this, having visited a number of countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East, including Syria, Libya, Colombia  and Angola.  There is always a risk of kidnapping and robbery.   Interestingly, kidnapping of foreigners is rare in the Middle East countries, but theft occurs in all major cities.  Miami has a lot of theft too.   Take my word for it!

But Americans were safe from the possibility of kidnapping in Iran, because money could not be wired into the country.  But, with the lifting of sanctions, this has changed.   However, I do not expect kidnapping to be a major problem, as most tourists will travel in organized groups.   Any money wired into the country for ransom will be quickly tracked down, and the kidnappers will be arrested.

Countries like Egypt,  Algeria and  Libya can pose risks for foreign journalists, but not for tourists.  A journalist who is relocated to Iran from Nigeria may actually feel more secure.  It is all relative.  Tourists must behave themselves.  This is probably rule number 1 in travel: Respect,  courtesy  and patience are absolute requisites- it’s not your country.

A lot of good tips are available on the internet for the intrepid traveler.  The cell phone is your friend and constant companion.  Learn speed dialing!  If you enjoy wandering around strange places, as I do, learn to keep a low profile.   Learn from nature- it is always better to travel in a group.  Local contacts can be essential.

But, I seem to be digressing here.   Bob Levinson’s  disappearance is a tragedy.  The information on his disappearance is very sparse. The disappearance should not become political.   There is no evidence Iran is hiding him, and it is not particularly useful for the US to demand release of a missing person or to accuse Iran of lying.    The 5 million dollars reward by the FBI for information was a good idea.  Americans traveling abroad to Iran in general should not be worried about being detained by the Iranian government, but also follow safe traveling tips.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

 

 

Winning again

by Dave

“Make America Great”

Trump’s theme.   Listen closely, it is more getting what we want as a country and the hell with everyone else.  You don’t tell a football team, to cut deals with the other team.

But, getting things done, whether passing bills in Congress or negotiating with other countries overseas,  it is a slow process to search for common ground and compromise.   Republicans, if they are going to solve problems,  they’ve got to work out solutions with Democrats.

It’s the big problems that require long term collaboration.    If Obama wants to get get North Korea to stop its aggressive nuclear weapons program,  then he’s got to get help from China and Russia.

Similarly with global warming.  It does exist and will require intense negotiations with hundreds of countries  to reduce carbon emissions.

Trump thought it was crazy that it took 18 months to work out a deal with Iran.   He’s not used to working with 5 other countries, with all the  complexities and the UN involvement.  He’s a one-on-one guy,  with here’s the deal, do you want it or not?   If it’s a hotel or golf course, he can walk away from a deal, with a “come back when you’re ready”  attitude.

Problem is no Republican can get on Fox News, and talk about compromising with Democrats, without looking like traitors to conservatism.  Even worse if they talk about collaborating with China and Russia on issues such as global warming and terrorism.    The big problems will not be solved by Republicans or Democrats, it will be solved by governments working around the world on common objectives.

Make America great by understanding the need for: compromise,  collaboration and diplomacy.   It is not just America will benefit because Iran is blocked from gaining nuclear weapons.  It will be the world that is great.

Stay tuned,

David Lord

 

Iran again

by Dave

Ok.  It’s almost like the Geico commercials.  Perhaps 99% of everyone has heard about enough.

But, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameni  made a speech yesterday,  about Israel not being around in another 25 years.    Lousy timing. “With Allah’s help, there will be no such thing as as a Zionist regime in 25 years,”  is what Khamenei said.   And the US is still the “Great Satan.”

The guy is 76 years old.   For sure, he’s not going to be around in another 25 years.   His hard line rhetoric  is contrasted with the President Rouhani and very importantly Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.  His title as “Supreme Leader” is a farce.  He  is all bark and no bite.  He is the spiritual leader of the past, not the real leader.

Next point- a lot of false statements were made by Republicans  about how Iran sponsored terrorism around the world.   But many of the speeches by House Republicans were ridiculous, because radical Islamic groups have thrived while the assets of Iran have been frozen and their economy is in dire straits.  This is a fact.

Where does most of the money for terrorism come from?   Experts will point first to Saudi Arabia, particularly in their aid to Hamas.  The worse group of terrorists in the world,   ISIL,  has many sources of income, ranging from the sale of artifacts and oil,  goods they acquire from looting of shops,  to selling of kidnapped foreigners, and private contributions.   Iran has supported the government of Syria and Hezbollah,  which are fighting both  ISIL and Al-Nusra (El Qaeda affiliated organization).

Bottom, bottom line- the sanctions were put in place because Iran was not complying with the nuclear non-proliferation agreement.   Lifting the Iranian sanctions  will  not help  ISIL  because Iran’s money is  going to organizations which are fighting  against ISIL.     The US is likely to put more troops in Iraq but has only limited options in Syria, if we don’t want to make things worse.

We can not economically wrestle countries to the floor and make them do what we want.  Sorry Dick Cheney, it doesn’t work.

Yes, the Iran deal will go through.  It is likely to strengthen the  moderates, who now run the country.   Forget the barking dog, please.  Time to move on.

Stay tuned,

David Lord

 

 

 

 

 

Iran Deal- Sen. Schumer vs Fareed Zakaria

by Dave

The following will happen in September:  (1) A bill will pass both the House and Senate, making certain President Obama can not lift sanctions against Iran and (2) President Obama will veto this bill.    Then, all eyes will be on the over-ride of the veto. I am hoping this vote fails and  the Democrats in the Senate stand by the deal.

Defector #1 is Senator Schumer.  He will vote against the deal.  If he pulls enough Democrats along with him, the deal fails.

Sen Schumer’s position

Fareed Zakaria,  host of CNN’s GPS program, and Washington Post Opinion writer, provides a good point by point rebuttal:

Fareed Zakaria’s Position

I am sure few people have read and understood the deal better than either Senator Schumer or Fareed Zakaria.    A lot of people think we give Iran billions of dollars, just so we can have inspections of their facilities.  As Zakaria points out,  this is just not true.  The first step is a massive de-activation by Iran at two sites:  Fordow nuclear facility and the Akar  reactor.

If this is true, wouldn’t Israel be overjoyed, at seeing these initial steps?  Part of Netanyahu’s lobbying efforts with Republicans  is strictly political.  Anything that appears to reduce the threat of Iran to Israel, is a threat to military aid to Israel.   See the most recent news story:

Is Iran a threat to Israel? New signs military is at odds with Netanyahu. 

The Democrats need 34 votes to block the over-ride, and it looks like they are now up to only 20 committed votes right now.   All eyes are on Harry Reid.

Stay tuned.

David Lord