Trump’s approval rating

I heard on MSNBC that Trump’s approval rating had slumped to 37% and that among Republicans, his approval rating was around 76%.   The problem with these numbers, is they come from a small sample, conducted by phone.  These values will randomly fluctuated due to the small sample and other problems inherent in statistical sampling.

I like the Gallup Presidential Approval Polls.   They’ve been in this business for decades.    They show a 38% approval rating as of November 11, 2018, while on Oct 21, 2018,  Trump was at 44%.   Is this significant?   I examined the charts from the first poll until now, and I don’t see any real trend, except a bit of drop off in his first few days in office.    I feel this is more random fluctuation, and I would just average them – resulting in about a 41% approval rating.

Looking just at the two major parties, our country evenly split 50/50.   Republicans gave him a 89% approval rating and Democrats only  7% approval rating.   On this basis, his rating should be around 48%.   I believe it’s the independents that bring his approval ratings down a bit, as their approval of Trump is only 34%.

What is remarkable about Trump’s approval ratings, is how little they have changed over time  in comparison to other presidents.   Every president in the last years has had more volatility in their approval ratings.    It usually takes a major conflict to push approval ratings below 30%.  Truman approval rating was 87% when he assumed office following the death of President Roosevelt but hit a low of 22% as the Korean war dragged on in 1952.    Even Democrats disapproved of Truman during the Korean war, with a lowest approval of 35% in April 1951.

I just want to clear the record on Trump’s approval ratings,   No plunges or soaring to new heights.   No clear trendline, up or down.   See links at bottom.

Can an unpopular president win an election?   Sure.  Only 43% of all eligible votes participated in the last election.   This makes a big difference.

Stay tuned,

Dave

Links:

Gallup poll on Trump

 

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