Covid-19 – Testing delays cost lives

The numbers are becoming real familiar and really frightening. These are people not statistics.  I trust the professionals and their advice. All of it.

When someone is tested positive, it means that that person has been ill and potentially transmitting the disease, for days before the onset of symptoms.   This is the time lag, is the sum of the days in which the infected person had no symptoms, days with minor symptoms, days until the  patient can see a doctor and confirm that the symptoms are sufficiently  similar to Covid-19 (frequently a requirement for a test),  days until a test was performed, and days until the results were known and treatment begun.

Days + Days + Days + Days + Days = total time lag.   Surviving Covid-19 depends on early detection.   The last 3 lags occur from  the point of “flu like symptoms”  to  confirmed positives, and have to be shortened.   When I heard that in Miami, it takes 5 to 7 days from when a person is swabbed to a confirmed positive or negative, I was shocked, because this rules out early intervention.  These antiviral drugs are not working for late stage patients.  They may slow down the disease progression but not prevent death.    Testing areas in Miami and everywhere else are overrun.  Home swabbing has run into some real obstacles.   All this delay costs lives.

This also means that the new positives data, which show an exponential curve  are based on  old data.   The first light at the end of the tunnel is a decline in new positives.  Get ready for false lights, because a solid trend in the decline must be established.  Where some communities might be turning the corner, others will still be solidly on the all frightening exponential curve.  Early lifting of containment efforts can easily destroy the progress made.

Stay tuned,

Dave

 

 

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